Looking ahead?

[cowman]

I wonder how many people consider what they will do if worst comes to worst?
I see so many people who are like a deer caught in the headlights...don't know which way to go! They have pinned all their hopes on the border opening and things returning to a more stable pattern. And hopefully that will be the case!
Lately I am starting to be a firm believer in Murphys Law...if something can go wrong it probably will! Maybe not a good attitude...but lately fairly realistic?
So how many of us ever ask ourselves these type of questions: What if they discover another BSE case? What if it stays dry and I have trouble feeding the cattle? What will I do?
I believe that if you consider all the negative things that might happen and have a contingency plan in your mind, it lets you pull through these scenarios with a lot less stress? And I also believe that there are a lot of really stressed people out there right now, who are having a lot of trouble coping?
Maybe the best attitude is to plan for the worst and hope for the best? I don't see staying frozen in the headlights as an option, because sooner or later you have to deal with the wreck heading your way?

[kato]

You got that right.

That's the attitude we have been trying to keep for the last year. It's getting a little tiring, though.

It seems that for the last year the rule has been that the last thing you expect to happen is exactly what does happen.

It would sure be nice if it was a good thing that happens for a change instead of a bad thing.

[kato]

Another option is a pro active approach.
Along with the deer in the headlights scenerio, we also see a lot of inovative ideas on this site.
Try considering BSE a non issue, and treat your cattle business for what it is. A business with a valuable commodity that consumers are paying the same money for in the marketplace, as they were prior to BSE. Sure we can't all do it, but there is surely more room in this than you can imagine.

[rsomer]

Cowman: We can never consider all the negative things that might happen. There are more negative things that could happen then we as humans can even imagine or deal with. Yesterday was the anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster which had a sudden and dramatic impact on markets all over the world and more importantly caused many unfortunate deaths. Should we have been anticipating Chernobyl, or BSE? I recently saw a documentary on 9-11 where a film crew was actually following the activities of a New York fireman. They were in the World Trade Center on that day when the planes hit the building. Should those people have anticipated that? The documentary included a comment that September 11 began as a day like any other. Just like today.

Maybe today is the day that they find another BSE cow. Maybe tomorrow is the day they announce the border is to open. Nortel lost 29% of its value yesterday, maybe those investors should have been prepared for that but most probably were not. We can never consider all the negative things that might happen. Equally, we do not have the capacity to consider all the wonderful things that can happen to each and every one of us. The best we can do is strive to create opportunities for good fortune to fall our way, to see what good there is out there and how lucky we really are. Risk creates opportunities as well as losses. The best way to deal with stress is realize that simple fact and accept that there are risks in everything we do. As the cliche goes, don’t sweat the small stuff....

[whiteface]

I bought a poster about little philosophys a little while back...probably around the time BSE was discovered here. The reason I had to have was because the very first line was a quote from a man aged 85 who stated "I've learned that most of the things I worry about never happen." And of course I've been preaching my head off in here about how I believe we need to take responsibility for our own actions and specifically I would like us to own our own problems so we can "worry" less about "what the heck is going to happen to me when someone else is driving." I believe everyone has their comfort zone in how they like to do things, for some people expecting the worst and hopeing for the best helps them perform at their best. I would like us all to create the most functional environment we can at home with our operations so that we have the energy to forge ahead and tackle new horizons...like new packing plants and tests and export markets as you all know I'm keen on. We definatly have to consider all the options before we have the right to bail out of this. I for one hate to see anyone go, we all have something worthwhile to contribute to any business, consider all the options cowman, there are still many left.

[kato]

We like to have a Plan B, and Plan C, and maybe even a Plan D if we need it. Then you can try and put the worry where it belongs and get on with things.

Backup plans have served us well in the past. It helps you to move quicker when an opportunity comes up. You've already done the "pondering" and you can just get right to it.

[cswilson]

Boy if we just considered all the negative things that could happen how many of us would of ever had our first kiss lol. It doesn't hurt to plan and consider all the scenarios but I've got a few neighbors that are ultranegative thinkers and have made some moves that hurt them.

[kato]

So do we. Guys who just jumped right in there and dumped calves at 50 cents. There was no telling them otherwise.

The way we see it, as long as the cattle are still in the yard, you haven't lost the money..... YET! LOL

But don't fall in love with them either, if someone comes along with a chequebook that has some money in it, don't turn him down.

[rusty1]

I talked to a cc/feeder today and he said he had retained a bunch of calves and had bought some more. And he was going to be either way right or way wrong.
I guess the leason that we're learning is that to spend so much energy on something we can't do anything about will take years of our lives and stress relationships and in the end we can't take anything with us. So it's much better to place our hope on things that are eternally secure.
We addopted a policy around here that when the bill collectors phone we tell them "Listen we put all the bills in the hat, and at the end of the month we pull out 3 of them and pay them. And if you don't quite whinning we won't even put your's in the hat."

[ebby7]

A negative outlook is not good, but then, I don't think anyone will ever accuse the farmer of being overly optimistic. No one can afford to be.
For being such an independant breed, we sure do rely on a lot of external variables to determine the success of our field. Literally. The country of origin effort was in place prior to BSE and it had more to do with $ than with health. BSE has been a global threat for years. None of this should be a surprise, but none of us saw THIS coming.
No one saw planes flying through buildings either, and yet the threat was clear. Nothing can be done about what has happened... but what now?
There is an opportunity to make it better, and quite frankly, it requires recognising the negative and moving forward, and the seeing the opportunity in that. I think. It is the real life version of "hinsight", where we get to see what has happened, and gain clarity to go forward. I think.

Oh, and moving forward? That requires team work and organization. No one can do it alone, I think... not considering that the competition is the organization, and not the guy next door.

[ebby7]

... and what I think would be really great is a farmer owned and operated system that provided beef that was hormone free, BSE tested and safe... without the middleman, for Canadians by Canadians. The best beef available... and people will line up for it. And if we become famous here for our beef, do you think the world won't catch on.. again? We have some of the best beef in the world... and we really should be so arrogant. I think. Off my soapbox now.

[Cedar]

"for Canadians, by Canadians" .... Great advertising slogan.......now...how do we go about getting rid of the middlemen?????????

[rusty1]

I've reported on this meadia before that the is an initiative to build a producer/stakeholder owned packing plant. We have launched and as soon as we have the name registered and the corporation formed and a bank account formed, we'll hit the airwaves with it.
I think you'll be excited about it.

[redhen]

Hi Cowman, and others.

It's great to see so many people involved in this discussion. I'd like to add some thoughts about the future of farming from the beef consumer's perspective, if I may.

When thinking philosophically, my favourite quote is "Everything happens for a reason." (Murphy hates that one!)

As a result of the BSE crisis, the Avian Flu, and Foot and Mouth in Uk, I believe the concept of feedlots will become a thing of the past. High concentrations of any livestock in one area invites the spread of disease.

Feedlots violate the laws of Nature in virtually every way. If memory serves me, I believe feed lots were developed as a way to utilize surplus grain production several decades ago.

Cattle are browsers. The article featured in this week's AgriVille summary, about using alfalfa and clover as finishing, makes a lot more sense to me than crowding animals into a feedlot and feeding them grain laced with antibiotics to ward off the bacteria that thrive in such an environment.

I also champion the idea of farmers selling their products directly to the consumer. Again, I am happy to pay retail prices to farm-gate producers if I know the products I'm consuming have come from pasture-raised animals and poultry that are free of growth hormones and antibiotics.

I love the idea of farmers organising their own "cooperative" processing facility. It makes perfect sense. Put a retail outlet right in the facility, for those who live in the area. Advertise on TV. Develop a web-site where products can be ordered on-line. Ship frozen products/variety packs directly to consumers. You'll be amazed at the response, because the educated environmentally-aware consumer is eager for these products!

I think we are going to see a return to mixed farms, and a future that facilitates the development of more Community Supported Agriculture farms, more farm-gate sales, and the eventual demise of the feed-lot mind-set.

Personally, I can't wait.

[rusty1]

redhen - I am thankful for you're comments. And yes you are right about our need as producers getting more involved and responsible for how our productes represent our nature as stewards of our part of the world. My vision is to see our industry become more aware and committed to the fact that we are raising food not a commodity. If I can point out gently a couple of things. The reason the industry is where it has been is because there has been 1) no loyality from consumers, and 2)that the ag economy is dedicated (and controled by those out side of our control) to provide you with the cheapest product possible. So inorder to compete and survive we have had to become very efficient or we don't survive. However that may be changing.
I do need to inform you however that contrairy to popular belief, the beef business as a whole is not a big user of antibiotics. If in a pen of calves 10% of the calves need antibiotics then the feeder feels he is in a wreak. We do use vaccines ofcourse just as do you children. However antiobiotics are only used when an animal is sick just like my kids do.
However I might quietly add that is not the case for both of our major competing meat products. Thanks for you're support and what you are suggesting may become reality sooner than you think.
PS: We would really like to get rid of the hormone we use (not because they are harmful) but becausse it goes against our sence of stewardship. However again to compete there is a very measurable benefit to using them and until we get paid gor not using them we can't survive either.