What's happening to beef?

[Happytrails]

I agree Wiltonranch. The bottom of the market may still be coming.

[grassfarmer]

It the cattle cycle ... stupid. Cattle prices have been peaking mid decade for decades. The recent price run up probably went a year longer than most predicted. Anybody remember '74-'75?? We're destined to live with an exaggerated supply/demand equation. Increasing supply initially REDUCES supply and reducing supply initially INCREASES supply. So there you go. Keep your expenditures in balance with your income and enjoy your cows!

That's the simple explanation - but is it true? I understand the cattle cycle and how increasing supply causes prices to fall. That's not really what's happened here though - are we to believe that in the US cattle numbers went from their lowest point since the 1950s to a high enough point to trigger a price collapse inside 18 months? Maybe with rabbits or pigs but cattle don't multiply that quickly. In Canada its hard to detect if there even was a measurable herd increase yet the price still fell dramatically.

This whole thing smells of manipulation to me - manipulation of futures markets to manipulate live cattle price and possibly manipulation of cattle inventory statistics to cover up the other manipulations.

[grassfarmer]

Much as I support direct marketing I don't think that's the solution. Like Sean says I don't think producer initiatives for alternate marketing systems are a likely solution either. I think there needs to be a proper fix of the existing system through enforcement of existing anti-competition regulations otherwise there risks being a forced vertical integration of the entire beef sector from pasture to plate.

[15444]

Haven't seen 5-weight $300 heifers and $400 steers yet this fall, so things are still looking pretty good.

#nooneowesyoualiving

If interest rates ever go up, then you'll see the slaughter line for producers pick up pace.

[smcgrath76]

Haven't seen 5-weight $300 heifers and $400 steers yet this fall, so things are still looking pretty good.

#nooneowesyoualiving

If interest rates ever go up, then you'll see the slaughter line for producers pick up pace.

It won't just be beef producers going down. There is a lot of leverage being used on the grain side right now. We often forget that the land won't go away. Most of it will be farmed, but may not be privately or Canadian owned at the end of the day.

[grassfarmer]

Yeah, I guess things are OK as long as calves are making the same money they were in 1974 but with 2016 costs and retail beef prices ten times what they were then.

[15444]

Yeah, I guess things are OK as long as calves are making the same money they were in 1974 but with 2016 costs and retail beef prices ten times what they were then.

Sounds like you should be cashing in on the retail side then. I'll gladly sell a calf for $1000 than $3000 and have to deal with the consumer.

[WiltonRanch]

I've sold a few privately over the years. Mostly fats to locals which they get butchered at the abattoir. However, I met up with folks that wanted grass fed no drugs etc. All they needed done was it quartered. Sad to admit but I had no clue so I hired some pros to do that. Everyone got paid a fair price and the customer got what they wanted. I know I won't sell a bunch this way but it doesn't hurt to diversify income streams if it's worth your while.

[perfecho]

IMHO...they do it because they can...and we allow it. Every now and then they get caught and we pinch out a little more, but then control gets taken back.

[grassfarmer]

Further speculation from US sources as to what is going on in the beef sector - any of our "industry leaders" in Canada awake or are they sound asleep in bed with the packers and retailers?


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