Thinkin' like a packer again

[kato]

This'll make presort sales interesting. They'll have to make an extra sort for the tagged calves.

I guess if you were a fall calfer, and then grassed your calves as a routine, this would work perfectly. They would probably not be gone until after Jan 1/06 anyway. Take the money and run.

For us, I don't think it's going to work. No way we can hold them that long. They'd eat up 200 dollars long before their time was up. We can have the 2005 calves pushing a thousand pounds by Jan 2006, sure don't want the 2004 calves to still be around then.

Sure, we like our cattle, but not that much! LOL

[BFW]

Blackjack, I would think it would be a no brainer for a feedlot that is now receiving $20.00/cwt ($270.00/hd) more for fats to invest $150.00/hd more in feeder cattle at least if they thought that these price levels could be sustained and that they have a reasonable amount of working capital left to operate with. The rumor of and subsequent announcement of the fat cattle set-a-side program has also played a large part in the recent runup in both fat and feeder prices as it should result in more predictible prices being paid for the finished animals. Blackjack, not all the feedlots are struggling despite what you hear or read and unlike the fat cattle market the feeder cattle market remains very competitive especially when supplies are short and above all remember that feedlots HATE missing out on a loss opportunity.

[blackjack]

BFW...why did Canfax say just a short month ago there was going to be a glut of fats this fall...that does seem odd now ...last year the fat price went in the tank when the government got involved who's to say that won't happen again... if the industry blows this one with the taxpayer we will have no one to blame but ourselves...

[BFW]

In my opinion the main reason that the fats went in the tank was that the way the government structured the program (against the industries advice) by saying that the program would end either when the money ran out or when the border opened to either to muscle cuts or live animals. The fact that that there was a finite amount of money available created the a huge incentive for people to sell their fats while there was still money available in the program and thus the packers took advantage of the producers extreme willingness to sell as they expected the program to pick up the shortfall. this program does not require that the producer sell his calves to collect the money which should mean that it will be more market neutral. As for the Canfax prediction of a glut of fats this fall I expect that that will be the case as the grass yearlings begin to come to market after a short stint in the feedlot along with a lot of the other cattle that have been coasting along in various retained ownership programs. Hopefully the fat cattle set-a-side program will allow these cattle to be slaughtered in a more orderly fashion than has been the case resulting in higher prices paid to the feeder for finished cattle and ultimately translating into higher prices for calves and feeder cattle. Again this program may not be perfect but it is far better than doing nothing and I think we should commend the government and industry people that designed it.

[BFW]

In my opinion the main reason that the fats went in the tank was that the way the government structured the program (against the industries advice) by saying that the program would end either when the money ran out or when the border opened to either to muscle cuts or live animals. The fact that that there was a finite amount of money available created the a huge incentive for people to sell their fats while there was still money available in the program and thus the packers took advantage of the producers extreme willingness to sell as they expected the program to pick up the shortfall. this program does not require that the producer sell his calves to collect the money which should mean that it will be more market neutral. As for the Canfax prediction of a glut of fats this fall I expect that that will be the case as the grass yearlings begin to come to market after a short stint in the feedlot along with a lot of the other cattle that have been coasting along in various retained ownership programs. Hopefully the fat cattle set-a-side program will allow these cattle to be slaughtered in a more orderly fashion than has been the case resulting in higher prices paid to the feeder for finished cattle and ultimately translating into higher prices for calves and feeder cattle. Again this program may not be perfect but it is far better than doing nothing and I think we should commend the government and industry people that designed it.

[BFW]

In my opinion the main reason that the fats went in the tank was that the way the government structured the program (against the industries advice) by saying that the program would end either when the money ran out or when the border opened to either to muscle cuts or live animals. The fact that that there was a finite amount of money available created the a huge incentive for people to sell their fats while there was still money available in the program and thus the packers took advantage of the producers extreme willingness to sell as they expected the program to pick up the shortfall. this program does not require that the producer sell his calves to collect the money which should mean that it will be more market neutral. As for the Canfax prediction of a glut of fats this fall I expect that that will be the case as the grass yearlings begin to come to market after a short stint in the feedlot along with a lot of the other cattle that have been coasting along in various retained ownership programs. Hopefully the fat cattle set-a-side program will allow these cattle to be slaughtered in a more orderly fashion than has been the case resulting in higher prices paid to the feeder for finished cattle and ultimately translating into higher prices for calves and feeder cattle. Again this program may not be perfect but it is far better than doing nothing and I think we should commend the government and industry people that designed it.

[oxbow]

Cowman,"There used to be a lot of blaming Japan but that is no longer the case? We now know who is giving us the shaft...and it is the States!
I guess they take Canada for granted and figure they can treat us like their idiot cousin or something? For a lot of Canadians(especially farmers) this whole thing has been a revelation about what a bully the US is? Maybe helps us understand why most of the world hates Americans with a passion?"


Cowman, you offer far too much stupidity for me to correct, but I can correct some.

First, the US is importing Canadian beef.
Second, the US tried to open the border to live fed beef, but was tied up in court.
Third, Japan is not buying shit from either the US or Canada - but some pricks villify the US? Why not the vitrtiol for France and their closed market.
Finally, if you feel the US is "a bully" because of a court stymie, The US can live with your hatred the same as we live with all those that would commit genocide in Isreal hating us.

[oxbow]

Oxbow, do you know that the border to the USA is actually closed illegally according to our NAFTA.

I will not believe for a second that the RCALF challenge is the only thing holding up the border.

Japan is playing politics with the USA, and the USA is playing politics with us.

All this for the sake of following a hysteria theory about BSE which does not even have solid truth behind it.

I'm sure you will blast me for this post too, oxbow. Just the kind of entertainment any of the folks watching from a distance with no CATTLE can enjoy. Producer vs. producer, country vs. country while more and more grassroots people go broke.

The ones to blame in this whole mess, are those that will not look at alternatives to the feed tranmission theory. This is where the destruction began.

[kato]

That's right. Prove to me that it passes in feed. No one has proved it yet. That's a lot of faith to put in an unproven theory. If another plausible theory had been brought forward back when all this started in England, the feed transmission would have been discounted by now. This is the first one they came up with (they were in a hurry, remember), so now it has become 'fact' simply because it's still around. It's hard to base your future on 'science' when the science is all theoretical.

As for the Americans, they are stalling until the election is over, plain and simple. They say they need more time to write the rules so they will not be able to be challenged in court. Nonsense. That's just putting the blame on R-Calf, when the USDA is just as much a part of keeping the border closed. Not to excuse R-Calf, here though, because they are setting themselves up for a rude awakening if/when the States finds a positive.

[oxbow]

It is a fact that the USDA lifted restrictions on live fed beef. It is also a fact that RCALF proved some slipup in regulatory minutia in federal court to block the lifting of restrtictions. We can posture and guess and accuse about what we don't know, but the USDA is now going through the process of writing procedures that will stand up to the legal testing they are sure to be subjected. I am especially frustrate by the total US court system, but short of making me king, the cure is complex.

The real juice behind maintaining a closed border (follow the money) is the packers. It looks like they're making too much money from the closed border. I'm afraid they have the ability to slow down the administrative process in the USDA, but if I could prove anything my kids would be fatherless. I agree to an extent that the new rules process may be developed slower than necessary. Let me give you an example of politics at play: a month ago we had a bad hurricane hit Florida so Bush goes downn there and promises aid. Kerry accused him of getting there so fast to be playing politics with a diseaster. Then a couple weeks later another hurricane hit Florida, and Bush went down there and promised more aid. This time Kerry charged Bush moved too slowly and didn't care about the misery in Florida. I think Kato is right, this rules deal may be completed after the first Tuesday in Nov.

I'm not sure the current ban is exactly illegal since the USDA is in the evaluation phase. I disagree with the ban on matters of equity and merits, but I'm still not King.


As for the nonfeed transmission of bse, I hope it is the feed because the US and Canada both have that one whipped. The organophosphates ingestion theory makes some sense when you factor the chronic wasting disease in elk and deer. I hope this is simply misdirrection because we could be mireed in bse issues for ever in this case.

[oxbow]

RPKaiser, "I'm sure you will blast me for this post too, oxbow."


While I reserve the rigt to disagree with your findings, your post is topical and thoughtful. I wouldn't "blast" a productive thinker as I value the perspective.

[cowman]

I don't hate the USA or the American people. I did say most of the world does. I mean hey they aren't flying airplanes into our skysc****rs?
Do you ever wonder how come all these countries hate the US? Maybe its because they have this greedy tendency to screw everyone over and act like they have a devine right or something?
I don't blame R-Calf or the USDA or Bush for our problems....they are just taking care of business! I do blame our totally useless government...for not taking care of business!
America and Canada have a relationship that goes way beyond a few measily cows or packing houses. It is my true belief that some day we should be one country.
I find it strange that America treats us like it does in these trade deals though? Don't you know we are practically your only friend in the world? We've gone along with just about all your crazy imperialistic crap over the years...now mind you the Iraq thing was just a wee bit too insane even for us! You screwed up big time on that one and it is shaping up to be another Vietnam!
And what in the hell does Isreal have to do with the cow business in North America?

[cowman]

Spoken like a true Canadian Oxbow, civil yet slightly disobedient.
I like that.

I hope that you do not fear the Purdey theory for the wrong reasons. We may have this thing somewhat under control with removal of SRM's etc. but we are still following unproven science.
Organophosphates are only a small part of Mark's theory and mainly concern the debacle in the UK. The main focus of his theory is the individual poisoning of animals caused by contamination of healthy prions by rouge metals.
I am not an expert, but would suggest you take a look at Mark's page and another interesting page that I will post below.
Have a great day.
Even a disagreement in the good old High School days started with a few jabs and ended with a few beers.

http://www.markpurdey.com/
http://www.ela-europe.org/

[oxbow]

I can agree that bse science is unproven, but Canada and the US have now tested many cows, and this would indicate the common held theories have merit. If everything under 8 years is safe, great. I do suspect when this issue is solved many many brain maladies will also be solved. As long as we're talking about unproven science, there is no proven link between bse and cjd, but neither of us would feed an aflicted cow to our families.



Even a disagreement in the good old High School days started with a few jabs and ended with a few beers.

Fair enough.