Cattle Market Epic Collapse

**riders2010** · Sep 30, 2015, 20:53

Any cheap cattle expected from
The new trade deal?

**grassfarmer** · Sep 30, 2015, 21:07

Not a collapse of the 2003 variety though. 5-weight steer calves bringing $14-1500 are still epic prices!

**Happytrails** · Sep 30, 2015, 21:23

ol' Corb must have lost some hide lately. I liked him when he did the USDA reports. He seemed overly negative this time. Of course I'm not thinking about how the backgrounders and feeders are doing. They are in a margin business. They control their own cost of production when they buy replacements.

The important thing is that the calf producers have been making a lot of money and are probably still are making some. The supply of calves will increase until many calf producers are NOT making money. At this point the supply of calves will begin to decline and eventually the price of calves will rebound.

It is called the cattle cycle. You've got to love it. It takes acres, a rancher and a mothers love to raise a calf. Luckily we are a part of that equation. If the packers and feedlots could raise their own calves and replace us they would. So far they can't. Enjoy the ride.

**errolanderson** · Sep 30, 2015, 21:29

Happytrails . . . well said. The cow / calf producer is the heart and soul of this industry.

**perfecho** · Sep 30, 2015, 21:57

"The cow /calf have been making a lot of money...not necessarily.
Depending when you sell your calves, you really only have one shot at it in a year, so you may have had only one good year of prices. Even though the prices were generally high, you may not be able to take advantage, unless you get into preselling etc.
The prices are certainly much better than they were, and that is a relief. Think if there is too much of a dip, some producers are going to say to heck with it, especially at high hay costs and uncertainty of the market.
Not sure where prices would be if Canadian dollar was higher...prices would certainly be lower yet

**Braveheart** · Sep 30, 2015, 22:04

Pressure on futures driven by concerns over slowing demand and heavier weights. Institutional bears taking a bite. They might choke on their bite. The numbers aren't really there.

**newguy** · Oct 1, 2015, 06:22

Cattle numbers in Canada still low.Good demand for beef and feed grains not real expensive.Prices are down to last year's prices.Last year was like selling 1 calf crop and getting paid for 2.Anyone that made it through the BSE will still be very happy with the next couple years of cattle prices.

**bucket** · Oct 1, 2015, 06:44

Expansion in cattle numbers don't come with high cattle prices.

Real cow guys sell down in these times. Keep their core cows. Put some cash in the bank (some have gold bars at the ranch) to weather thru the down cycle that inevitably comes when they or the next generation start the rebuild.

**cottonpicken** · Oct 1, 2015, 17:48

Just got a chance to look at the charts. Pretty interesting. Unaware it was happening. Using eyeballed tech we got a hundred percent rise from from the 120 level to the two forty,now maybe a 50%fib retraceish with long bottom trend line one seventy ?wave pattern doesn't quite fit but with the rest of the commodity space falling apart hard to be bullish. Hard to do this stuff on a phone

Cattle Market Epic Collapse