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Cash Cattle Market Update

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    Cash Cattle Market Update

    A rough go of late . . . The cattle
    board has been in near collapse and both
    fed and feeder prices remain in decline.

    For all the Agriville boo birds pooing
    pooing marketing so much lately . . .
    just look at the cattle market.
    Marketing has not been horsesh-t in this
    market, if has been a financial
    lifesaver.

    And note . . . as soon as the soy rally
    is over, so will the comments that
    marketing doesn't matter.

    Errol

    #2
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GF/

    No doubt, markets all opening up everywhere,
    small feedlot inventory in USA and Canada, cow
    herd numbers declining and a tanking market.

    What's driving this downturn Errol?

    Comment


      #3
      Don't worry about what people think or much less say
      here.It always reminds me of that movie clip from
      oceans 12 when the gang has to come up with money
      they stole from the previous movie oceans 11.

      As they go around the room everybody is way down
      from their cut,until they hit one old guy who is way
      up,the whole room turns and stares and he says-

      "what,you think the market is beyond the realm of
      human understanding"

      Comment


        #4
        ALLFARMER - the North American cattle
        market simply was overbought. Texas cash
        went to record highs of $130/cwt in
        March and packers were bleeding big-
        time. But it took some extra factors to
        push this market over-the-cliff.

        Funds had bought-the-hell of of this
        market. The market cannot maintained
        this momentum and simply exhausts itself
        (sounds like soybeans and canola
        sometime ahead)

        Then, gasoline prices ramped toward $4
        per gallon in the U.S. People need gas
        more than beef. Wholesale beef demand
        dipped as big retailers had already
        bought more expensive beef in late Feb.
        These retailers were not impressed.

        Also pork production rose. And Cdn hog
        bids have been on a 5 cent/kg drop week
        by week right now. Lots of pork in cold
        storage.

        Then, the media gored the market last
        week through their pink slime campaign
        (finely ground beef). This also hurt
        demand. The media can be self-serving
        bastards at times IMO.

        So what now? Grass cattle bids dropped 3
        to 5 cents last week. Packers are well
        covered right now as wholesale demand is
        dropping and feedlot currentness is
        weakening during a period when beef
        demand should be seasonally ramping up.

        The cattle board is likely to get
        oversold as funds are in panic sell mode
        and it's due for a bounce, but the cash
        market is definately hurt. Packers want
        their money back from months of negative
        kill margins and suspect that they will
        just do that by May. Cattle basis levels
        may widen out.

        For feeders with price protection, cash
        contracts futures and or puts and put
        option bear spreads, hug 'n hold.

        Thankfully the stock market continues to
        hold together.

        From a grumpy Errol

        Comment


          #5
          Jeez,must be in vix.

          If you get 3 solid up days in cattle you'll be getting
          more phone calls than the current soy complex,which
          is NOW entering oversold.

          Comment


            #6
            Correction-soy broke trend to the up,new uptrend
            possible,as Charlie stated before a healthy correction
            would have been better,our numbers maybe different.

            Comment


              #7
              After a decade of break even-ish grain prices, I
              was always trying to figure out why prices would
              beat me up. I have come to learn, the market is
              always right. I have frequently sold into the
              futures just to get enough price to make black ink
              on my small farm. In my view of any (free) advice
              from AV so far has not been harmful or subject to
              place farmers into disaster, or red ink. If you don't
              like the advice don't use it. My call is that there will
              be farmers selling canola, if it hasn't heated, for
              9.80 per bushel and at the coffee shop talking
              about how it was $13.00 but they could not get a
              truck, or they were on vacations or road bans,
              or....place weak excuse here. This is a medium to
              exchange ideas and information. Take it or leave
              it.

              Comment

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