Interest rates

[macdon02]

Does everyone remember how fast they dropped to these levels? I'm picturing an island bottom like formation. Don't under estimate how fast they can rise. This pic is regarding US rates.

[errolanderson]

Please take as an opinion, but not a 'hope-in-hell' rates are going to take off.

Bank of Canada rate hikes in 2018 are dead-in-the-water. U.S. Fed talking the story of 4X rate hikes this year . . . simply won't happen (IMO). There is no way at these consumer and gov't massive debt loads.

U.S. public debt astronomical above $21 trillion and accelerating. Gov'ts also must service this staggering debt at higher rates as well. This would crush economies (IMO) . . . .

[tmyrfield]

rates at 4% would hurt a lot of people
rates at 8% would kill the economy
my fear/hope is that canada learn from its past mistakes(peeair) and not try to inflate our way out of debt, because then the only way to stop inflation is to raise interest rates. I started my farming career in late 70's. we thought the party would never stop. growing population, limited land resources, relatively benign climate. peeair brings in NEP, high inflation, high interest rates (18%) huge deficits. I took a whole generation to get past that, not till 2007,08 did land prices even get close to what they were in the early 80's.

Some on here would say that the whole world was experiencing the same problem and that it wasn't the liberals fault....possibly, but peeair did absolutely nothing to alleviate canadas problems and undoubtedly even made them worse. justin and the current liberal caucus don't have the intelligence, experience or skills to even identify the problems much less deal with them. they are Too busy with pride parades, 5 star climate conferences and tropical holidays.

I am at a loss to be able to offer any solutions, smarter guys than me aren't exactly going out on a limb and offering any either. Keep your powder dry and the sharks away from your door is about all I have to offer.

[foragefarmer]

Live within your means, plain and simple!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Errol, What you say is all true and logical, but assumes that the powers that be remain in control of interest rates. If confidence in the government or the currency is lost, They also lose control over interest rates and can only follow the trend not set the trend. Some would argue that that's all they are able to do at the best of times.

[bucket]

Live within your means, plain and simple!

I believe that except that inputs, graincos, railways don't. ...

Tell me why discounted crude oil in western Canada has gas and diesel to be priced where it is?

Tell me why a small farmer with a worn out 4440 that he could afford in 1980 has to mortgage his farm to buy a newer tractor....the ****ing fuel prices are eating up his live within his means....

[Retired]

I believe that except that inputs, graincos, railways don't. ...

Tell me why discounted crude oil in western Canada has gas and diesel to be priced where it is?

Tell me why a small farmer with a worn out 4440 that he could afford in 1980 has to mortgage his farm to buy a newer tractor....the ****ing fuel prices are eating up his live within his means....

Yes but the liberals didnt raise the price so no one cares to bitch,im not defending the libs but that is the reality of agrvillers, just a poor oil co trying to make a living.

[foragefarmer]

'Tell me why a small farmer with a worn out 4440 that he could afford in 1980 has to mortgage his farm to buy a newer tractor....the ****ing fuel prices are eating up his live within his means....'


The point I was making is that some farmers are more than willing to take on extra debt because of low interest rates. Interest rates will go up and there is major risk farms with a heavy debt load will be lost.

I guess to the farmer you're referring to, things are at the breaking point already and the end is very near if those interest rates were to rise. Not being smart and know some guys have had some very unfortunate luck, but that's the reality of farming.

[bucket]

Which way is it forage live within your means now you are saying tough shit for some guys.....


Wtf the guys I describe didn't do anything stupid and are good farmers......fuel and inputs and machinery kicked the shit out of them.....

[FarmJunkie]

Seems to me that we need to have a smarten up period in order to correct the overindulgence of the last ten years. Reality cures stupidity if you allow it to happen. For example without QE where would we be?

[SASKFARMER3]

I personally would like to see 10% interest or higher on investments he’ll I would gladly pay tax on 200000 or more income but they will never let that happen. Now the powers that be will take our savings if the shit hits the fan that I know will happen.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Money is still nearly free to borrow at these rates, and apparently farmers aren't concerned that rates are going to get out of control. Just came back from a land auction, nearly $4000 per acre for mediocre land, more like $4500 per arable acre, all in pasture currently. That must be a record for this far west. The threat of higher rates, kepts my hands in my pockets even before it got to that price. But as usual, I'm sure I will look back in regret...

[Flatlander]

Having agreed that there are no markets, only manipulations... maybe one shouldn’t think that interest rates willl ever get out of central banker control. But maybe one day the MARKET will reign. It could happen. What should rates be to reflect $500,000+ houses and $500,000 + quarters? It could get ugly real fast. Then gov’t really needs inflation to inflate away debt or the interest will bring their insolvency to the light of day. Seems there is no solution. But I don’t see how spending your way out of it can be good. Like someone said above keep some powder dry, paydown debt which seems stupid at these rates but look at long term interest charts- which way do you think the trend is going to be from here? Look at long term grain price charts- that ones easy, hint, it only goes one way over the long term. We just lived through one of the best times to be a farmer, well maybe more accurately a land owner. Past performance may not guarantee future success.

[Sheepwheat]

A lot of guys made more money on interest than teachers made in salary in the 80’s. If you are on the right side of debt, interest rates are too low. If I had a dime for every time I heard a retired farmer say, “ interest rates are way too low.” Well, I would be richer.

More than one way to look at it. Sure, if you are borrowing exhobitant money to fund yourself, it can hurt. If you on the other hand, have been socking some away like we all should be, high rates are pleasant.

[furrowtickler]

A lot of guys made more money on interest than teachers made in salary in the 80’s. If you are on the right side of debt, interest rates are too low. If I had a dime for every time I heard a retired farmer say, “ interest rates are way too low.” Well, I would be richer.

More than one way to look at it. Sure, if you are borrowing exhobitant money to fund yourself, it can hurt. If you on the other hand, have been socking some away like we all should be, high rates are pleasant.

You are correct . Depends if you are debt loaded or not on what opinions are .
History says it must go up , those exposed say it can’t .