In another thread I noted the NFU response included a comment that we should not have to have a 250 head cow herd just to make a living.
I myself do not have 250 cows but I am steadily increasing my cow herd and I could get to 250 head if I tried. Our farm could keep maybe 300 head if it rained and I quit trying to grow wheat. I think many of us would consider 250 head a reasonable sized herd.
I worked a few numbers on break even cash flows for a 250 head cow herd. Without including the actual numbers I used because it got kind of personal but using reasonable numbers for death loss and open cows, capital purchases/depreciation, living, debt repayment and income taxes I came up with a required break even cash flow price for a weaned calf of $840 dollars based on a 250 head cow herd. Assuming a 575 average weaned weight that gives a fall price of $146 cwt. That is simply break even cash flow, nothing included for ROI.
Weaned calves last fall brought about $250 per calf less than that breakeven.
Now I have a lot of sympathy for the concept that an operation like mine should be able to make a decent living. And weaned prices should be higher this fall than last but that remains to be seen depending on the dollar, feed costs etc.
Kind of leaves me wondering how I even survive. I do have a few gas wells on my place which helps. My wife works which helps a lot. My son helps on the farm for free (although he does burn my gas) and he works off farm to make a living which helps. Prior to this year we were getting some government bucks which helped but that well has gone dry. If you had less debt than me that would help. Debt is really a killer but I think most of have more than we should especially since 2003. Really it looks like if you have any debt you have more than you should have.
The reality is it is nice for anyone to say cow calf producers should be able to make a decent living with 250 cows or for the NFU to say we should make a decent living with even fewer cows but the numbers say something very different.
I myself do not have 250 cows but I am steadily increasing my cow herd and I could get to 250 head if I tried. Our farm could keep maybe 300 head if it rained and I quit trying to grow wheat. I think many of us would consider 250 head a reasonable sized herd.
I worked a few numbers on break even cash flows for a 250 head cow herd. Without including the actual numbers I used because it got kind of personal but using reasonable numbers for death loss and open cows, capital purchases/depreciation, living, debt repayment and income taxes I came up with a required break even cash flow price for a weaned calf of $840 dollars based on a 250 head cow herd. Assuming a 575 average weaned weight that gives a fall price of $146 cwt. That is simply break even cash flow, nothing included for ROI.
Weaned calves last fall brought about $250 per calf less than that breakeven.
Now I have a lot of sympathy for the concept that an operation like mine should be able to make a decent living. And weaned prices should be higher this fall than last but that remains to be seen depending on the dollar, feed costs etc.
Kind of leaves me wondering how I even survive. I do have a few gas wells on my place which helps. My wife works which helps a lot. My son helps on the farm for free (although he does burn my gas) and he works off farm to make a living which helps. Prior to this year we were getting some government bucks which helped but that well has gone dry. If you had less debt than me that would help. Debt is really a killer but I think most of have more than we should especially since 2003. Really it looks like if you have any debt you have more than you should have.
The reality is it is nice for anyone to say cow calf producers should be able to make a decent living with 250 cows or for the NFU to say we should make a decent living with even fewer cows but the numbers say something very different.
Comment