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    US Wheat Damage

    Here is a report by NAWG


    "Winter Weather Threatens Wheat; Damage Still Unknown
    April 13, 2007


    An early spring cold snap hit most of the country last week, potentially imperiling much of the nation’s wheat crop. Reports from a number of NAWG state associations said it is too early to tell what damage was actually caused, but that at least some of the local crop appears to have been hit.
    Some reports include:

    • Alabama: The majority of wheat in northern areas is at the flowering stage and is very susceptible to cold damage. As the week has progressed, wheat crop damage has become more apparent. The northern half of the state was the most affected area, and it is anticipated that the crop will be a total loss or, best case scenario, that fields taken to harvest will have such low yields and grain quality that income will not cover harvest costs.
    • Kansas: The situation was quite varied, with some areas reporting almost certain damage and some seemed potentially none. For the most part, it’s still too early to tell.
    • North Dakota: Two snowstorms brought welcome moisture but have delayed planting.
    • North Carolina: There appears to be some damage, including some fields have been found with damaged leaves, though the extent is still unknown. Probably 50 percent of the crop is affected by some degree of damage.
    • Oklahoma: Initial reports suggested that southwestern parts of the state fared well, while central into northern parts might not have done as well.
    • Texas: Observations made by the Texas Cooperative Extension on Thursday suggest very little damage occurred to the wheat as a result of the cold temperatures. Apparently, soil temperatures were warm enough to keep the temperature within the wheat canopy high enough to avoid damage. Wheat should be reexamined in the future, but there is room for optimism.
    • Virginia: Until things warm up crop damage is going to be difficult to assess. Some areas had more than four inches of wet, heavy snow that actually flattened the crop and broke stems. Barley and early wheat are more damaged than later wheat.

    NAWG will continue to monitor this situation and report as needed."

    #2
    Awwweeesssssoooommmmmmeeeee! One's pain is anothers gain.

    Comment


      #3
      THought you might be interested in this WD9;

      http://www.uswheat.org/priceReports/doc/509FD966AEF879B0852572BC004836B4?OpenDocument#

      US Wheat Associates April 13 Price report:

      Highlights
      Wheat futures were volatile this week as markets speculated on the extent of freeze damage in the Southern Plains and Delta over the Easter holiday weekend. The Kansas crop progress report showed a considerable fall in conditions, supporting price strength. The KCBT locked limit up (30 cents/bu) at the open on Monday but fell back in the same session. Informa Economics commented, "Though vegetative damage undoubtedly occurred, production loss is far less certain and could well be minimal to nonexistent...No quantitative evaluation can be made for several weeks at a minimum and most likely even longer."

      All three exchanges hit multi-month lows in the sessions following the prospective plantings report. HRW prices fell to the lowest level since May 2006. The freeze has pushed prices back to trading levels seen prior to the March 30 plantings report. For the week, CBOT SRW nearby (May) futures rose 34 cents/bu, the KCBT ended up 27 cents/bu and the MGE was up 21 cents/bu. Corn futures ended 3 cents/bu higher than last week.

      In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released Tuesday, USDA increased its forecast for U.S. exports and domestic feed use, decreasing ending stocks. The WASDE also revised up exports from the Black Sea region while decreasing exports from the EU-27, on tight supply, and Canada due to logistical problems caused by rail strikes. Export sales from last week, at 809,000 MT for both new and old crop supplies, were well above trade expectations of 250,000 to 450,000 MT, also supporting prices.

      The freeze event was seen as particularly serious for the SRW crop in southern Missouri and northern Arkansas as the hard freeze came on the heels of 2 weeks of 80 degree rainy days promoting growth. As concerns mount over availability SRW basis is up 11 cents/bu from last week.

      Focus renewed on the SRW premium to corn at the CBOT as markets need to buy wheat out of poultry/pork feed rations. SRW futures held a 58 cent/bu premium over corn on March 23, nearly doubled to $1.10 today.

      U.S. SW prices rose 15 cents/bu this week to $6.05/bu, less than half of the week's increase at the CBOT, taking 21 cents/bu ($10/MT) off the SW premium over SRW. The discount for new crop SW declined only slightly, with last half June offered at $5.30/bu. The SW supply and demand situation will depend significantly on Australian getting badly needed precipitation before they begin planting in early May as well as how much damage the U.S. SRW crop sustained last weekend.

      Barge rates are essentially unchanged from last week with Minneapolis - NOLA at $20/MT, $11/MT (36%) lower than at the November close. USDA Grain Transportation Report cites weaker rail demand from coal and grain shippers for keeping rail rates constrained. At $41/MT rail rates are 10% lower than last year on the North Dakota - Houston (HRS/durum) route while the Kansas City - Galveston rate is 5% higher than this month last year.

      Ocean freight rates continue to rise. The Baltic Exchange Panamax Index is at the highest level since 2004. At $46/MT, the PNW - Japan rate is $20/MT (71%) higher than April 2006.

      Comment


        #4
        Portland Weekly Grain Review Part 1
        Pacific Northwest Weekly Grain Summary

        Pacific Northwest market summary: Cash wheat bids for April Portland
        delivery ended the reporting week on Thursday, April 19, steady to mostly higher
        compared to last Thursday's noon bids. Soft white wheat bids were sharply
        higher, hard red winter wheat bids were moderately to sharply higher and dark
        northern spring wheat bids were steady to slightly higher.

        July wheat futures ended the reporting week on Thursday, April 19,
        higher as follows compared to last Thursday's closes: Chicago 33-3/4 cents
        higher at 5.07-3/4, Kansas City futures 21-3/4 cents higher at 5.04-1/2, and
        Minneapolis futures nine cents higher at 5.14-1/2. Chicago May corn futures
        closed 12-1/2 cents higher at 3.71-1/4 while May soybean futures were 20 cents
        lower at 7.18-1/4. Wheat futures were supported by trade concern over
        winterkill to the U.S. wheat crop, by trade ideas that some soft red winter
        wheat acres may be shifted into corn because of the poor growing conditions, and
        by drought in European and Australian wheat growing areas. Heavy fund buying,
        especially last Friday, also pushed wheat futures higher. Corn futures moved
        higher as planting continues to be delayed by wet weather in the Midwest with
        forecasts for additional rain next week. Corn futures also received support
        from a slow down in farm selling and from higher wheat futures. Soybean futures
        were pressured by record South American production, by abundant U.S. inventories
        and by trade ideas that U.S. soybean acreage will increase this year as a result
        of corn planting delays.

        Bids for US 1 Soft White Wheat for April Portland delivery ended the
        reporting week 16 to 17 cents per bushel higher than last Thursday's noon bids
        in reaction to the higher Chicago July wheat futures while the lack of any large
        new export sales or tenders tempered advances, somewhat. Trading was slow.

        Bids for 11.5 percent protein US 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat for April Portland
        delivery ended the reporting week eight to 14 cents per bushel higher than last
        Thursday's noon bids in reaction to higher Kansas City July wheat futures while
        adequate pipeline supplies tempered advances as some exporters lowered their
        trading basis to discourage farm selling. Trading was slow. On Thursday, bids
        for 11.5 percent protein were as follows: April 6.05 to 6.07, mostly 6.05; May
        6.05 to 6.07; first half June 5.95 to 6.05, last half June 5.75 to 6.00; first
        half July 5.65 to 5.85, last half July 5.54 to 5.65; and August New Crop 5.47 to
        5.51.

        Bids for 14 percent protein US 1 Dark Northern Spring Wheat for April
        Portland delivery were steady to two cents per bushel higher than last
        Thursday's noon bids. Moderately higher Minneapolis July wheat futures
        supported bids, but advances were tempered as exporters had nearby needs
        satisfied. Trading was slow. On Thursday, bids for 14 percent protein were as
        follows: April 6.05 to 6.16, mostly 6.15; May 6.10 to 6.16; First half June
        6.10 to 6.16, last half June 6.08 to 6.13; first half July 6.04 to 6.13, last
        half July 6.04 to 6.09; and August New Crop 5.94 to 6.01.

        Pacific Northwest export news: There were eight grain vessels in Columbia
        River ports on Thursday, April 19, with three docked compared to six last
        Thursday with three docked. Confirmed new export sales made during the
        reporting week for Pacific Northwest shipment were to Taiwan, Japan and South
        Korea. Taiwan purchased the following wheat in metric tons (MT) for May 22 -
        June 5 shipment: 3,620 of hard white wheat, 8,870 of 13 percent protein hard red
        winter wheat and 22,510 of 14.5 percent protein dark northern spring wheat.
        Japan purchased the following wheat in MT for June shipment: 36,000 of maximum
        10.5 percent protein western white wheat, 20,000 of 11.7 percent protein hard
        red winter wheat, and 24,000 of 14.0 percent protein dark northern spring wheat.
        South Korea purchased the following wheat in MT for June shipment: 3,000 of
        maximum 8.5 percent protein soft white wheat, 7,700 of maximum 10.5 percent
        protein soft white wheat, 4,000 of 11.5 percent protein hard red winter wheat
        and 6,500 of 14 percent protein dark northern spring wheat.

        Source: USDA Market News, Portland, OR
        Lowell C. Serfling 503-326-2237
        24 hour price information: 503-326-2022
        http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/JO_GR115.txt

        Comment


          #5
          US Wheat Associates April 20 Report:

          Highlights
          Wheat futures oscillated early in the week as traders try to assess the effects of the Easter freeze on U.S. yields. From Informa Economics: “the historical track record for April freeze events suggests actual overall production losses are likely to be small or non-existent.” But reports from crop scouts continue to cause concern and the trade believes this year's freeze event was unique because the crop was more advanced than in past freezes. The USDA crop progress report showed a fall in conditions with 55% of winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 64% a week ago. Big drops recorded for major SRW states Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. Conditions in Kansas were downgraded again with 36% rated good or excellent, down from 55% last week and 77% two weeks ago.

          Markets jumped on Thursday after Australian Prime Minister John Howard told reporters Australia faces an "unprecedentedly dangerous" drought, promising that without rain in the near future, irrigation water will be rationed. For the week, CBOT SRW nearby (May) futures rose 24 cents/bu, the KCBT ended up 18 cents/bu and the MGE was up 6 cents/bu. Corn futures ended down 9 cents/bu down from last week.

          Price strength could also be found in speculation regarding tight Indian supplies, effects of dry weather in China and the EU, and Brazilian wheat acreage falling with an increase in winter corn plantings. The drought destruction in Morocco is more of a certainty with USDA forecasting an increase in imports to 3.5 MMT from 1.5 MMT this year. Inter-market spreading, buying wheat/selling corn, was also reported this week, evidenced by the fall in corn prices.

          Export sales of 342,800 MT old crop and 38,500 MT new crop were within trade estimates. Export interest was reportedly light earlier in the week, but the spike in futures combined with astronomical freight rates has diminished it.

          With SRW basis firmer this week at 16 cents/bu, up from option (no premium) last month, and futures much stronger, FOB Gulf SRW is $28/MT higher than a month ago. Despite SW showing continued export demand while SRW is not, the SW premium over SRW fell again this week to 97 cents/bu ($36/MT) down from $55/MT a month ago. The SRW premium to corn at the CBOT is $1.48/bu, up from 58 cents/bu on March 23.

          Barge rates came down from last week with Minneapolis - NOLA at $20/MT, $13/MT (41%) lower than at the November close and $4/MT less than this week last year. Tariff rail rates are unchanged for the week, on the North Dakota - Houston (HRS/durum) route, rates are $41/MT (10%) lower than last year while the Kansas City - Galveston rate is 5% higher than this month last year. Secondary markets for grain cars are trading below 3-year averages and at a discount for most delivery periods through the September corn/bean harvest.

          Ocean freight rates are very expensive and continue to rise as demand for grain and mineral transportation is resilient. The Baltic Exchange Panamax Index is at the highest level since 2004. At $48/MT, the PNW - Japan rate is $22/MT (85%) higher than April 2006 while Gulf routes are double rates paid this month last year.

          Dollar weakness has led currency markets to new records. At $1.364/euro, the U.S. dollar extends a two-year low and is less than half a cent from a new all-time record low against the euro. On Monday, the yen hit an all-time low against the euro and a 7-week low against the dollar. The Brazilian real is closing in on the R$2.00/U.S.$ for the first time since February 2001, in spite of sustained intervention by Brazil’s central bank to prevent the currency from strengthening further.

          Comment

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