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Is The Corn Bull Coming back?

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    Is The Corn Bull Coming back?

    May 2007 CBOT Corn


    #2
    Okay who wants to give me heck for figuring out how to do this and who wants to talk about the chart?

    Comment


      #3
      Looks to me like even once the gap gets filled we are still in a downtrend here.

      Comment


        #4
        Wow fran i didnt think you had it in you to talk about something like this.

        I couldnt get your chart to pull up but from your comments I ASSume your arguement is that the corn market is in prolonged downtrend(please correct me if i'm wrong).

        Corn has been slaughtered in the weekly charts but that had to happen,it was in parabola mode and had become unstable and a sell off was inevetible.Of course the usda report was the excuse.

        If you go to the monthly charts and start drawing your parralel lines using your high points and low points youll see were doing fine.

        I am of the believe that fundamentals are still more important than technicals,and the fundementals are still FIRMLY in place.

        -across the board commodditie strength
        -major us dollar weakness
        -massive global liquidity growth
        -ethanol production(a paradigm changing event in itself)
        -chindia demand
        -geo-political tensions
        -global weather extremes

        Bull markets are called bulls because of the extreme volitility that occurs bucking the weak hands out of their positions and putting the wealth into strong hands.

        When oil was 27 bucks a barrel i was telling everybody to get in because it was going to 50.I was wrong it went to 78.
        When copper was.80 cents i was telling everybody to get in because it was going to 2.50.I was wrong it went to almost 4.
        When uranium was 8 bucks i told everyone to get in because it was going to 25.I was wrong it went to 75.

        I've made some calls on the grains and oilseeds but i'm probaly wrong,they'll probably be much higher.

        And if your going to follow any analyst out there make sure its one thats been in from the start.The new guys that are talking are bonehead, hack wannabes.

        IN
        MY
        OPINION
        NOT
        INVESTMENT
        ADVICE
        DO
        YOUR
        OWN
        DUE
        DILLIGENCE

        Comment


          #5
          Correction copper hit 4.16 and uranium is at 95$.(f*ckin 10 bagger)

          Comment


            #6
            Cp I won't even touch your predictions.

            I agree fundamentals are huge, but you can't ignore technicals, and if you think the fundamentals will do it on their own your wrong.

            We experienced major chart damage to corn and wheat last week, allthough I agree Funds are strong yet, they are going to have to set up the technicals again before this takes off.

            Frost this weekend would help also in the US.

            We saw a very strong Fundamental in Soyabeans last week with such a huge drop in acres. What happened Beans dropped huge the morning of the report.

            So while fundamentals are big, technicals are just as big.

            Short term Corn, is going to flutter a bit around $4.00 until we get this thing going.

            Wheat, we better hope mother nature helps us out this weekend, or we are in trouble.

            Soyabeans, are done. I think we will see a 2-3 month correction, before they regain the bull market.

            Crude, I think we will get close to $40 barrel, then we could soar hihger.

            Canola, I said at the end of January on this site I would look to sell near term if you needed cash flow before spring. I still would take advantage right now, before seeding starts.

            And Cp you know yourself, if your trading on fundamentals, and weather scares, you're trading risky buisiness.

            Comment


              #7
              Fran: I dont think corn will sustain $4.00 on the futures during the next crop year, basis the March 31 USDA seeded Prospective Plantings report, and assuming average weather. Should all these acres be seeded, and we see average yields, the 2007-08 corn carry may exceed 1 billion bu's, this is not very bullish.

              Also, I think all this new enthusiam in the farm commodities will simmer down over the next crop year. All this new money from the equities market will eventually learn how to properly value farm commodities.


              In the short term, If corn is to maintain or continue to trade above$4.00/bu this fall, it will be due to how many acres (and bushels)we lose as a result of current Nitrogen costs and availability.

              Should Nitrogen needs to be rationed, and prices go higher from here, I think more of those corn acres will go back to beans and cotton, but the USDA will not report the actual acreage shift for some time.

              Also keep an eye on US midwest temperatures. It's been cold of late, and not conducive to early seeding.

              If this temperature trend continues for the next few weeks, acres will be lost in the southern fringes of the corn belt


              In summary, Keep and eye on the US southern-mid-west weather over the next month, fertilizer supplies / prices, and soil moisture levels. I think the acres will be there to keep corn sub-$4.00/bu, but what about the production?

              Comment


                #8
                Snappy what im looking at is the us dollar.

                When it closes below .80 for three consecutive trading days look out.Its getting close now.

                Oil will never be 40$ again.

                Oil at 80$ means ethanol is profitable at 5.63 corn.

                The us corn crop is the most important food stuff on the planet and within the next few years most of it will be directed to ethanol.The normal supply demand fundamentals are about to be turned upside down.

                For one second contemplate how much more money is in the world than in 1981.Which was the end of the last bull.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Snappy,

                  I hope Chuck sticks with Aug 1 07 on deregulation of barley... domestic feed users will pay up for supplies if he does!

                  THis will drag feed wheat right along... and the CWB will be forced to charge more for our high quality wheat... or will they!?

                  How many folks will shift back to CPS... now that barley is in the dereg motions Aug 1?

                  What about you CP... have your intentions shifted between CWRS and CPS?

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Cottonpicken, I need you, if you can predict markets like that. If I can get your advice for free, just think how rich I could become. But wait, you must be farming for fun, right, cause you are prob loaded.

                    Comment

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