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Really Interesting Commentary

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    Really Interesting Commentary

    Really good commentary on agweb beefblog



    No rules are bad rules
    3/26/2007

    Steve Cornett

    “The only permanent rule in Calvinball is that you can’t play it the same way twice.”

    Calvinball, you’ll remember, was the game Calvin and Hobbes played, wherein you make up the rules as you go—with an eye toward gaining an advantage. The absurdity is obvious, but it is precisely the “gotcha” game Korea and Japan are playing with the “game” of U.S. beef imports—and the game folks like Max Thornsberry, R-Calf’s new president, wants to apply to Canada.

    The time to establish rules for a game—or a cattle deal or a trade agreement—is before the game starts. Before you sign the dotted line. That’s when you can iron out wrinkles, make your tradeoffs. If the rules are incongruous, you don’t really have a deal.

    It is a mistake the U.S. made back before our first case of BSE was found. Had we seen through our panic, we would have known that control measures are—if not perfect—adequate. We can rest assured that the measures we have in place will prevent an epidemic of BSE among our cattle, much less a significant threat to human health.

    We should have argued for OIE rules with that in mind. BSE should not constitute the kiss of death for beef exports that it seems to constitute today. U.S. beef, bone-in or not, is not a significant threat to consumers in Korea or Japan. But because there were not common-sense rules established before the game started, we’ve got a form of Calvinball going.

    It’s too late to go back now, but it’s not too late to inject common sense into our own trade policies.

    Yes. There is some BSE in Canada. They have found 10 cases. But there were more than 600 murders in that country last year, and nobody is suggesting we don’t allow any Canadians into this country because one of them might be a murderer.

    If we start imposing rules like that, how many countries would allow U.S. citizens in? We had 16 THOUSAND murders last year.

    It takes common sense, this getting along with other people. The OIE rules don’t offer 100% protection against BSE ever happening. We can’t, with current science, achieve 100% certainty. The trick is to establish rules that offer a reasonable amount of protection. The OIE rules do that.

    Let us put this Canadian thing into context. Even Paul Brown, the most-cited expert at the Centers for Disease Control— and who has been critical of USDA’s testing procedures—the risk of catching the human form of BSE from a serving of beef during the height of Britain’s outbreak—with 185,000 cases of BSE in cows--was less than one in 10 billion.

    I don’t do big number math, but if you do, you can tell me maybe, 185,000 is to a one in 10 billion risk as 10 is to what kind of risk? It’s a chance I reckon I’d take, and one almost all consumers are willing to take.

    The scare is over, folks. We’re down to Calvinball now.

    Canadian cows are not the risk Dr. Thornsberry pretends them to be. Consumers know it. Cattlemen should too.

    #2
    "Canadian cows are not the risk Dr. Thornsberry pretends them to be. Consumers know it. Cattlemen should too."


    I guess somebody forgot to tell the Asian consumers that-- or else they don't buy into that theory.....

    Comment


      #3
      Do you agree that the asian countries should be keeping out US beef?

      Comment


        #4
        Willowcreek - you have to be the best Calvinballplayer on the planet$$$$$$$

        Comment


          #5
          "Do you agree that the asian countries should be keeping out US beef?"

          Actually I don't think any country/countries with BSE should be exporting any OTM (over TWENTY month) untested beef or any live cattle until they can show that they have the disease eradicated...

          This shipping the stuff to other countries and back and forth to/between infected countries will only continue the spread and continuance of it-- which is going to bite us all in the butt when/if native origin vCJD shows up- or the disease is tied to some of the other dementia diseases, like evidence is beginning to point toward...

          Comment


            #6
            Willowcreek,
            "or the disease is tied to some of the other dementia diseases, like evidence is beginning to point toward..." Is that a reference to R-CALF members?

            I loved the commentary in Alberta Beef magazine about R-CALF "Now it appears the group has used a circular firing squad to eliminate their Jekyll and Hyde split personality problem" - too funny!

            Comment


              #7
              Willowcreek can you honestly say the USA has eradicated BSE or have merely stopped testing or if you are testing why are your positive cases being buried and I mean that litterly.

              Comment


                #8
                Hello Willowcreek:
                How does one decide that a country is BSE free? The US has had a couple cases now. At what number is the cutoff point between low risk and no risk? How long should a country go without a case. What are you numbers?
                I think personally that the Koreans are playing protectionism just like the US with Canada. You guys at least got enough stroke to tell them that if they don't play fair, then they don't get a free trade deal.

                Comment


                  #9
                  No I don't believe the US has eradicated BSE- even USDA estimates their are at least 4 cases in the US herd-- but at the same time they estimate Canada has 23.2 current cases in a herd 1/7th the size as the US's- and in a herd that it is still spreading in which has been shown by the young age (4 years old) of the cases and all the POST feedbans...

                  Their are several different variant strains of BSE- and the US has not found in a US origin cow the strain that is predominant in Canada ...Trading OTM beef/live cattle will only continue the spread...

                  How much testing? I think USDA should keep the testing program they had in place up and running at least another year- if no positives found then I think the scientists believe we can declare ourselves pretty much BSE free...And USDA should allow any private company to test for marketing purposes...

                  Canada on the other hand with such a greater problem should be testing ALL OTM's- not only to find the extent of the disease, but to protect the consumers/shut down the spread...And both CFIA/USDA estimate Canada will continue to have positive cows for 10-20 years...If we are going to error, we should err on the side of safety- both to consumers and the cattle herds of the world...

                  Canadians all think that getting their US exports back and back on the US gravy train will solve all their problems-- but I think its a little early for them to be relaxing or thinking their boat has came in again since they are back riding the US's shirttails... One native case of vCJD confirmed in N.A. will bring a backlash from consumers and the rant of the voters down on CFIA, USDA, and the politicians that guaranteed their was no danger- finger pointing and CYA everywhere...And then there will be borders, and loopholes slammed shut and rules that you have never seen...We in the US never proact- but always react- and when it is a safety issue that they feel government let them down on- they overreact...

                  If you don't believe me- watch the investigations, hearings, and reaction rules and laws that come out of this Canadian company dogfood issue now...Don't mess with some of these folks "Fi Fi's"....

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Re the risk of BSE in Canada versus the U.S. Both Canada and the U.S. are classed in the same risk category, that is "controlled risk".

                    See:

                    http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20070309/canada_madcow_070309/20070309?hub=Canada

                    OTTAWA -- Canada has won recognition from an influential international panel for taking the proper measures to control the risk of mad cow disease.


                    A review panel of the World Organization for Animal Health is recommending Canada be among the first small group of countries classed in the "controlled risk'' category for the brain-wasting disease.


                    The United States is also known to be among the first group, although the list of recommended countries has not been publicly released.

                    For the official OIE definition of BSE risk see:

                    http://www.oie.int/downld/Doc_OIE/A_BSEquest.pdf

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Hello Willowcreek:
                      I personally agree with you on the 100% testing at least for a couple years to root out any remaining. I also think companies should be allowed to test 100% of animals for export markets as well. I don't know why Canada hasn't jumped on this.
                      Regarding the dog food case, wasn't it manufactured in a US plant of a Canadian company? I could be wrong. I will do some checking.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Estimation of BSE Prevalence in Canada


                        Table 5 summarizes the results of the estimation of BSE prevalence in the standing Canadian adult cattle population as of August 15, 2006. Based on the expected prevalence value under the BBC model and the estimated adult herd size (Table 1), the expected number of BSE-infected animals in the standing Canadian adult cattle population is 4.1. By comparison, the expected value obtained under BSurvE Prevalence B is 3.9 per million, which corresponds to an estimated 23.2 BSE-infected animals in the standing Canadian adult cattle population.

                        http://www.aphis.usda.gov/newsroom/hot_issues/bse/downloads/BSE_Prevalence.pdf
                        -------------------------------
                        If you go by the APHIS studies-- they estimate the US at 3 or at the most 4 BSE cattle in the entire US herd- and they estimate 23.2 BSE cattle in the Canadian herd, which is 1/7th the size....That makes the risk factor of Canadian cattle many many times higher....40 to 50 times at the minimum....

                        But then if you factor in the young age of the cattle you're finding in Canada (as young as 4), and the continuity of positives showing up (every 2-3 months), and that half are POST feedban born which is evidence the feedban has not/ is not working and the disease is still spreading in Canada-- the Risk factor increases extensively....

                        And you are right it was a Canadian company on the dogfood, that has several US plants, and it appears to be tracing back to a rat poison (that is banned in the US) in wheat gluten they bought from China...

                        One of my young border collie customers called today- had just lost his old dog and his pup- probably to this dog food (doing tests)...Even tho his Dad is a past President of NCBA, he had nothing good to say about importing food this morning...

                        Comment


                          #13
                          But then you factor in that the US is testing animals in which their test can not even show BSE and that they don't even publish how many culls and 4Ds they've actually tested, the US's risk factor then comes back up to pretty much even with Canada.

                          You can pick the Aphis junk over a 3rd party independent all you want OT. The rest of the world knows the truth, and thats that the US's infection rate is the same as, or even higher than, Canadas.

                          Rod

                          Comment


                            #14
                            I do not think it matters if the number crunchers conclude there are 23 BSE cows in Canada versus 4 or 184 in the United States. Both countries will be classed in the same risk category; controlled risk.

                            Re importing food. The reality is that food is imported into the United States as well as Canada. I recall last December a food scare involving U.S. spinach and e.coli.

                            Regarding the pet food:
                            http://www.fda.gov/bbs/topics/NEWS/2007/NEW01590.html

                            The take home message for me is that food production is global not local. In this instance we have a Canadian firm operating plants in the U.S. under U.S. rules. I can assure you there are many more U.S. owned companies operating plants in Canada. Faced with a global economy like this it is not in cattle producer's interest to isolate themselves within their own borders. Ways must be found for cattle producers throughout the major cattle producing regions of the world to work together to achieve fair pricing of live cattle for one and all.

                            We will not have success in raising the price of our domestic live cattle by seeking policies designed to lower the price of live cattle elsewhere.

                            Comment

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