Posted: Peter O'Donnell @ 01/ 24/ 06 2:19 am
Canada drops the ball
The results may require more counting, and there has always been a history of late Conservative wins in certain ridings where our support is concentrated outside the cities and towns. That being said, it already appears that majority government lies well out of reach tonight.
The exact dynamics of this minority parliament are yet to be known for certain too, but the seat totals of the Conservatives plus the New Democrats hardly inspire confidence in the concept of a coalition there. In any case, what would they agree on, besides the need for more accountable government?
The minority Harper government could find some issues that a Liberal opposition would accept, but knowing the Liberals, these would be few and far between also. And the potential for co-operation between the Conservatives and the Bloc is equally slim.
I think it will take a day or two before this sinks in across Canada, but we are now into the first phase of a deep national crisis which may very well lead to the firing up of western independence sentiments on a massive scale. I can tell you that the size and sheer blunt-headedness of the Liberal resistance in Toronto and southern Ontario has extremely bad "optics" in my personal view, and since I am by no means the most enthusiastic western independence booster you could find, I assume this can only indicate a mood of anger across conservative-dominated portions of western Canada.
The idea that the Liberals could be so lightly punished for their years of corruption, arrogance and incompentence -- the idea that the city of Toronto in particular could just roll over and say, "why not?" -- this sets a tone for the power centres across the nation, and it is clear that Canada is now deeply divided into urban and what I would call "mixed" or smaller town regions of the nation. We are seeing government and perhaps even morality in two entirely different and incompatible ways.
Our media, of course, will skew the results away from alarm and disgust and towards a kind of over-analysis that fails to note the dangers and the potential for deep social division in Canada. The fact that many analysts are already pointing to a gender gap in voting patterns is further cause for concern, because this shows that the Canadian family is breaking down, that many Canadian homes are deeply divided, a fact that you may be feeling tonight in your home.
It is, of course, a hollow victory, better than let's say a return of the existing parliament, a few individual wins and losses to celebrate. But it is something far less than a real victory. I think it is a very tenuous opportunity for possible future gains by this Conservative party, but let's face facts -- this party ran on the most moderate platform it could have supported without blushing. It ran a nearly flawless campaign. The eruption of the abortion red herring in the last week was an obviously contrived business, and I doubt that it caused the weakness in the Conservative results in the Ontario ridings. I rather think it was that last-minute moment of panic for a few voters, staring in the face a shift in power in Canada that might give an unknown and feared portion of the Canadian population any kind of power over national affairs.
In other words, it was a failure to process the meaning of past events and assess the potential of future promises. Not the first time that Canada has made that mistake -- but possibly the last time.
Canada drops the ball
The results may require more counting, and there has always been a history of late Conservative wins in certain ridings where our support is concentrated outside the cities and towns. That being said, it already appears that majority government lies well out of reach tonight.
The exact dynamics of this minority parliament are yet to be known for certain too, but the seat totals of the Conservatives plus the New Democrats hardly inspire confidence in the concept of a coalition there. In any case, what would they agree on, besides the need for more accountable government?
The minority Harper government could find some issues that a Liberal opposition would accept, but knowing the Liberals, these would be few and far between also. And the potential for co-operation between the Conservatives and the Bloc is equally slim.
I think it will take a day or two before this sinks in across Canada, but we are now into the first phase of a deep national crisis which may very well lead to the firing up of western independence sentiments on a massive scale. I can tell you that the size and sheer blunt-headedness of the Liberal resistance in Toronto and southern Ontario has extremely bad "optics" in my personal view, and since I am by no means the most enthusiastic western independence booster you could find, I assume this can only indicate a mood of anger across conservative-dominated portions of western Canada.
The idea that the Liberals could be so lightly punished for their years of corruption, arrogance and incompentence -- the idea that the city of Toronto in particular could just roll over and say, "why not?" -- this sets a tone for the power centres across the nation, and it is clear that Canada is now deeply divided into urban and what I would call "mixed" or smaller town regions of the nation. We are seeing government and perhaps even morality in two entirely different and incompatible ways.
Our media, of course, will skew the results away from alarm and disgust and towards a kind of over-analysis that fails to note the dangers and the potential for deep social division in Canada. The fact that many analysts are already pointing to a gender gap in voting patterns is further cause for concern, because this shows that the Canadian family is breaking down, that many Canadian homes are deeply divided, a fact that you may be feeling tonight in your home.
It is, of course, a hollow victory, better than let's say a return of the existing parliament, a few individual wins and losses to celebrate. But it is something far less than a real victory. I think it is a very tenuous opportunity for possible future gains by this Conservative party, but let's face facts -- this party ran on the most moderate platform it could have supported without blushing. It ran a nearly flawless campaign. The eruption of the abortion red herring in the last week was an obviously contrived business, and I doubt that it caused the weakness in the Conservative results in the Ontario ridings. I rather think it was that last-minute moment of panic for a few voters, staring in the face a shift in power in Canada that might give an unknown and feared portion of the Canadian population any kind of power over national affairs.
In other words, it was a failure to process the meaning of past events and assess the potential of future promises. Not the first time that Canada has made that mistake -- but possibly the last time.