WHEN TO SELL CANOLA

[caseman]

Is the price going to rise soon? Looking at $6.30 per bushel
at Davidson,SK.

SK Pool account is due Jan.31 so I am hoping for $7 before then.
Should have sold it off the combine for $7.50 but everyone said with the widespread frost it could only go up.Wrong!!!!

Anyone have any thoughts??

[JD4ME]

I wish I'd moved a lot more than the 20 percent I did off the combine too, hindsight huh. The worlds awash in grains again we are too good at what we do, however by late January we can sometimes start to see problems starting in the South American Crop show up, they've already reported asian rust is back. On the flip side two big wrecks down there in a row is maybe too hopeful. Watch the basis levels FOB the crushers the domestic pipeline it has needed to narrow the levels in a couple times to keep the flow of #1CC into them as there are a lot of producers who saw that 8-950 last year and aren't(yet) willing to move it below that 7 . But don't think the crushers are not aware of timing of cash flow needs and try to live from one credit crunch to another to force producers to develop a cash flow. Pray that Ralph Klein comes out favor of Alberta seperation during the bush visit saying something like "I think that Alberta should go home with the president" That would correct the other huge drag which is the 85 cent dollar which has sure kept a lid on things too. my 2cents.

[TOM4CWB]

Caseman.

Is the basis offered an a great one?

If it is (Par or positive) then can you pencil a profit on your farm with your yeild?

If you can, then consider selling, with plan to buy back calls to cover the up side... if you must speculate!

No one ever went broke... making a profit.

But pigs often get slaughtered.

[crusher]

Canola futures can be broken into three ranges: low:$250-320, mid:$320-380 and high:$380-460. Now is probably not the time to be selling because the price is in the low range, but the question is when will it move up? I'm sure within the next year it will be $320 , but it may drop to $260 before that happens. At current levels I can still make a profit on canola with decent yields, but with my CWRS wheat turned feed and horrid pea yields, I won't be covering all costs there. Canola will need to carry the farm again this year. Therefore, I'm going to ratchet up the risk on the canola and start buying pretty soon. Your previous comments (Tom & Charlie) have kept me out of the market to date. The Canadian $$ is just killing us. Not too happy I bailed on my hedge at $.77, but oh well.
My strategy is to sell some stocks that are doing well (near highs) and hang on to my low valued crops. I should be okay until the big spring bills roll in, provided my CAIS payment arrives before then.