Opinion on Hard red winter crop.

[beaverdam]

Doesn't sound too impressive.

https://www.hutchnews.com/story/opinion/columns/2023/04/09/wheat-conditions-season-likely-a-loss/70088587007/

[jazz]

The winter wheat crop always has some bad news in the spring and it seems to pan out better than expected.

[furrowtickler]

https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1107379&mid=10180039#M10180039

[furrowtickler]

Moisture patterns are changing and not for the better for that area . West coast systems shifting north and eastern US moisture belt stuck in place or moving slightly eastward, leaving the hard red winter wheat area high and dry .
The later snowmelt will help most western Canada from drying out too soon but still will need way above normal rains to get to average regardless of snowmelt in the vast majority of western Canada

[beaverdam]

The winter wheat crop always has some bad news in the spring and it seems to pan out better than expected.

I agree, we often hear that stuff in Feb, maybe Mar.

But I thought this was more note worthy because it's April 10th.

[flea beetle]

I agree, we often hear that stuff in Feb, maybe Mar.

But I thought this was more note worthy because it's April 10th.

Yes the crops of that region should be headed out or very close to heading out already depending on how far south they are. High moisture usage time of year for them.

[BTO780]

Haven’t sold a bu of wheat … and the crooks won’t be getting any of it until prices start changing. Getting tired of daily calls especially from brokers.
I won’t post what I told them.

[BTO780]

Kansas wheat conditions dropped by three per cent to 13 per cent good to excellent, while 61 per cent of the crop is rated in poor to very poor condition. The drop in conditions were expected as dry conditions and high winds were commonplace last week. The drop in wheat condition pushed ratings down to the levels reported in 2018 during this week. Conditions in Oklahoma dropped six per cent to 20 per cent good to excellent, which is the lowest rating levels since 2018. Texas conditions dropped one per cent to 17 per cent good to excellent. The drop in crop ratings coincided with additional drop in subsoil moisture levels. Kansas subsoil moisture levels are now at 83 per cent short to very short. Oklahoma moisture conditions are 71 per cent short to very short, while Texas is rated at 65 per cent short to very short.

[crusher]

The market is always right. A crappy hard red w.w. crop has been known since last fall. I do note that Canadian Prairie wheat basis has deteriorated lately and that's not helping either. It's been a poor management decision to be long wheat (or canola). Unfortunately my bins are more full than empty. I hope there is a reward in the future. Long grain keeps we from spending stupid coin on equipment I don't really need.

[flea beetle]

Haven’t sold a bu of wheat … and the crooks won’t be getting any of it until prices start changing. Getting tired of daily calls especially from brokers.
I won’t post what I told them.

Yeah I don’t get it. Getting more calls than I ever have from brokers, yet they are unwilling to raise price to get what is in the bin. Seems if you want it, you have to pay up. No?

[shtferbrains]

Rains boost Australian wheat planting prospects, El Nino weather looms
By Naveen Thukral

3 MIN READ


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Widespread rains in Australia’s southern, eastern grain areas

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Rains improve planting conditions even as El Nino weather looms

SINGAPORE, April 11 (Reuters) - Australian wheat plantings are set for a strong start as better-than-expected rains in parts of the country’s grain growing regions have improved soil moisture, traders and analysts said.

After three years of all-time high wheat production, Australian farmers have started planting the crop this year amid forecasts of El Nino weather, which typically brings dry weather across large parts of the country.

“There are forecasts of dry weather and El Nino is quite likely,” said Phin Ziebell, an agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.

“But we have had good rains in eastern and southern parts of the country.”

Cereal and oilseed crops across Asia are forecast to face hot and dry weather, with meteorologists expecting the El Nino weather pattern to develop in the second half of the year, threatening supplies and heightening concerns over food inflation.

Rains across New South Wales and Victoria states over the last two weeks have boosted soil moisture levels for planting, which lasts until May.

Australia, the world’s No. 2 wheat exporter, produced a record crop of close to 40 million tonnes in 2022/23, providing much needed food supplies to importers hit by disruptions following the coronavirus pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war.

Australia is expected to report record-breaking agricultural exports in the current financial year, after years of high rainfall boosted yields.

In Asia, Indonesia, China and Japan are key importers of Australian wheat with buyers in the Middle East taking higher grades of milling grains from the country.

The benchmark Chicago wheat futures have lost around 14% of their value in 2023 on improved global production, although dryness in the U.S. Plains is reducing yield potential for the winter crop.

“At the moment it is looking very good, things are much better, given the dry autumn forecast,” said one Sydney-based grains trader.

Private and official estimates for the country’s 2023/24 wheat output range from 25 to 30 million tonnes.

Planting of barley and canola, also grown in the same season, are likely to benefit from recent rains.

Australia has reached an agreement with China to resolve their dispute over barley imports, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Tuesday, the latest sign of improving ties between the countries. (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Sonia Cheema)




If Australia is the 2nd biggest Wheat exporter this has to be a big influence short term?

Russia is claiming to be exporting record amounts of wheat.

[flea beetle]

https://www.producer.com/news/wheat-jumps-1-percent-on-renewed-concerns-over-black-sea-grain-deal/


Russia posturing again.

[beaverdam]

Sick day in wheat.

WASDE update making the market move down. Seems there is plenty of spring wheat.

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/15888786/wheat-markets-lower-post-report-on-us-stocks