Test $14 canola for New Crop Test

Commodity Marketing

Tools

$14 canola for New Crop

Test
Mar 24, 2023 | 07:49 1 Like I have said before on here, it was only a matter of time. The old top of the market, becomes the new bottom, let’s only hope. Three days this week the Viterra nearby texted out prices that had NC Canola in the $14+ category, with yesterday the lowest at $14.39 for Sept/Oct. Reply With Quote
Mar 24, 2023 | 07:54 2 New crop canola with crap insurance $18.82 Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Mar 24, 2023 | 08:08 3 Will $14+ attract any significant acres?

    With what appears to be attractive crush margins have to assume they are going to buy acres to assure supply. It all goes to a crush plant somewhere.

    Are any new Bio Fuel plants going to be consuming new crop? Reply With Quote
    Mar 24, 2023 | 08:13 4
    Quote Originally Posted by shtferbrains View Post
    Will $14+ attract any significant acres?

    With what appears to be attractive crush margins have to assume they are going to buy acres to assure supply. It all goes to a crush plant somewhere.

    Are any new Bio Fuel plants going to be consuming new crop?
    Acres were bought months ago at $18-19
    No seed to be found now.
    Maybe some returns will happen. Reply With Quote
    Mar 31, 2023 | 15:38 5
    Quote Originally Posted by BTO780 View Post
    Acres were bought months ago at $18-19
    No seed to be found now.
    Maybe some returns will happen.
    How many acres would of been bought up without an Act of God? Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Mar 31, 2023 | 18:09 6 AOG on canola?? Reply With Quote
    Partners's Avatar Mar 31, 2023 | 18:25 7
    Quote Originally Posted by blackpowder View Post
    AOG on canola??
    Bunge nexera..20 b/a .AOG.. Reply With Quote
    Mar 31, 2023 | 18:26 8 Why not just wait till the first week in June before everybody panics. We got 60 days of real important weather to deal with first. We had 3 days of -20 in the morning and 2 -10's and next week after storm only 1 day above freezing forecast. Getting kinda tired of plugging tractors in Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Mar 31, 2023 | 20:34 9 Viterra has an AOG. On non GMO also for around 10 BPA Reply With Quote
    Mar 31, 2023 | 20:46 10
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    Viterra has an AOG. On non GMO also for around 10 BPA
    We did some clearfield with AOG Reply With Quote
    Mar 31, 2023 | 23:17 11
    Quote Originally Posted by blackpowder View Post
    AOG on canola??
    For regular canola there is zero as far as I know.
    My point is I’m doubting crazy amounts were contracted without an Act of God due to the “expensive lessons” many farmers were taught in 2021.

    Or am I wrong? Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • May 26, 2023 | 10:51 12 Viterra text this morning has new crop canola at $13.93 for September. And they mentioned that with current weather (one tenth so far at my yard), grower interest is picking up. Oh boy. Are guys starting to panic? I’m afraid if it does actually rain, we’ll be seeing 12s or worse. Reply With Quote
    May 26, 2023 | 12:33 13 I know some of this 200 an acre rent guys are a little antsy now! Reply With Quote
    May 26, 2023 | 12:38 14
    Quote Originally Posted by SmallTimeOperator View Post
    Viterra text this morning has new crop canola at $13.93 for September. And they mentioned that with current weather (one tenth so far at my yard), grower interest is picking up. Oh boy. Are guys starting to panic? I’m afraid if it does actually rain, we’ll be seeing 12s or worse.
    As the SNL skit goes....they will make it up on volume!!!! Reply With Quote
    May 26, 2023 | 17:28 15
    Quote Originally Posted by FarmJunkie View Post
    I know some of this 200 an acre rent guys are a little antsy now!
    Is that you?? haha

    I underbid an opportunity to rent more land this spring. might turn out to be a good thing. Hope not though. Reply With Quote
    May 26, 2023 | 23:11 16
    Quote Originally Posted by FarmJunkie View Post
    I know some of this 200 an acre rent guys are a little antsy now!
    When you make your own bed ….
    This ain’t Iowa but the game is being played
    Hopefully they see something that the vast majority of us don’t see Reply With Quote
    May 27, 2023 | 05:46 17 One would think if the guy had the nerve to pay $200 RENT they likely locked in $18.50-$19.00 canola so a $5 dif on 40 bu canola puts them in the same boat as the rest of us . The numbers game can drive a guy nuts some times ! Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • jazz's Avatar May 27, 2023 | 06:59 18 I wouldnt be too hesitant to sell this entire crop when she comes off.

    Somebody better start findings some other markets.

    Name:  gc.jpg
Views: 341
Size:  88.5 KB Reply With Quote
    May 27, 2023 | 07:49 19
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    I wouldnt be too hesitant to sell this entire crop when she comes off.

    Somebody better start findings some other markets.

    Name:  gc.jpg
Views: 341
Size:  88.5 KB
    Yeah we know China is a fair weather buyer at best. Think you still have to take into account the substantially longer and costlier overland journey from the grain producing regions of Russia to china. Though Russia has been dumping their shitty grain below world price to keep it moving. Reply With Quote
    May 27, 2023 | 07:53 20 I pay carbon tax so I want russia and Ukraine to have a drought!!!! Isn't that the point of carbon tax get the weather you wish for? Lmfao Reply With Quote
    May 27, 2023 | 07:55 21
    Quote Originally Posted by WiltonRanch View Post
    Yeah we know China is a fair weather buyer at best. Think you still have to take into account the substantially longer and costlier overland journey from the grain producing regions of Russia to china. Though Russia has been dumping their shitty grain below world price to keep it moving.

    Ukraine is USD$40 under Russia...keep sending them money for infrastructure so it can lower the world price. UKR wheat has been selling for 6 bucks Reply With Quote

  • May 27, 2023 | 09:10 22 Putin's missiles wouldn't be the cause for Black Sea wheat being discounted even more than it always is, would they? Reply With Quote
    May 27, 2023 | 10:02 23 Russian wheat is low quality but it makes a turd at least. Outside of the good areas it is quite low yielding surprisingly. They just have lots of acres. Western Russia is the bread basket and further east closer to China it goes the other way. Almost akin to the Special Areas. Reply With Quote
    May 27, 2023 | 10:32 24
    Quote Originally Posted by WiltonRanch View Post
    Russian wheat is low quality but it makes a turd at least. Outside of the good areas it is quite low yielding surprisingly. They just have lots of acres. Western Russia is the bread basket and further east closer to China it goes the other way. Almost akin to the Special Areas.
    Russia bpa average was 45+ bpa last year across the entire country

    The majority of wheat buyers gaf about quality ...only price. 77 years of quality indoctrination here, may take 77 years to dissapear

    Lots of "quality wheat" ends up at Husky in Lloyd. Reply With Quote

  • jazz's Avatar May 27, 2023 | 11:08 25
    Quote Originally Posted by WiltonRanch View Post
    Russian wheat is low quality but it makes a turd at least. Outside of the good areas it is quite low yielding surprisingly. They just have lots of acres. Western Russia is the bread basket and further east closer to China it goes the other way. Almost akin to the Special Areas.
    Chinese capital funneled into Kazakhstan along with Russian urea, some bourgault tech and stolen western canola IP.....need I say more.

    We shouldnt get complacent.

    Our trade reps and farm groups should stop looking for which bathroom to use and get out there and pound the pavement.

    Canada is going to be road kill in a dustup between BRICS and the USD. Reply With Quote