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Mar 21, 2023 | 20:59
1
Is there a bottom? Painful to participate in this one.
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Mar 22, 2023 | 05:14
2
2008 all over again. Quick google shows corn dropped 50% that year. Feels like it isn't over to me.
It will impact seeding intentions and fertilizer use. Which could compound fert declines. Hard to know what is going to happen.
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Mar 22, 2023 | 07:21
3
Spend spend and spend some more then watch these markets go to sheet. Analysts predicting more wheat and canola. Guess surveys were done when markets were on fire. These two crops have fallen the most.
Not much excitement going into spring.
We all thought last yrs crop was expensive to put in, this one will be worse yet. Least prices were better a yr ago.
Tell me one good reason to keep playing this game.
We are getting screwed in every direction.
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Mar 22, 2023 | 07:30
4
 Originally Posted by crusher
Is there a bottom? Painful to participate in this one.
Catching a falling knife is difficult to do with success;however, this 730 level on the nearby month is worth looking at.
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Mar 22, 2023 | 09:21
5
Haven’t heard from the $30/bus peanut gallery in a bit. You guys still holding onto 2 years worth of crop? Asking for a friend……
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Mar 22, 2023 | 10:16
6
COT March 14, Just piling on, no real reason.
What will May expiring cause them to do? Roll or buy out?
AG Canada still guessing $850 Canola?
Optimistic like farmers?
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Mar 22, 2023 | 10:33
7
Originally Posted by fjlip
COT March 14, Just piling on, no real reason.
What will May expiring cause them to do? Roll or buy out?
AG Canada still guessing $850 Canola?
Optimistic like farmers?
I have one particular rule regarding marketing. Never, ever, ever, ever listen to what Ag Canada has to say. They simply have little to no knowledge. That part of Ag Canada should be closed.
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Mar 22, 2023 | 10:40
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Originally Posted by dave4441
I have one particular rule regarding marketing. Never, ever, ever, ever listen to what Ag Canada has to say. They simply have little to no knowledge. That part of Ag Canada should be closed.
Sounds like a very good policy. But is there any Canadian government agency that does have good knowledge and produces useful information?
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Mar 22, 2023 | 11:11
9
If any agency, Analyst, can shed light on this market, please share.
Soybeans still at $20 CAD.
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Mar 22, 2023 | 18:30
10
Originally Posted by Herc
Haven’t heard from the $30/bus peanut gallery in a bit. You guys still holding onto 2 years worth of crop? Asking for a friend……
Didn't the opportunity they were looking for come very close to that price last year at this time?
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Mar 22, 2023 | 19:45
11
Originally Posted by fjlip
If any agency, Analyst, can shed light on this market, please share.
Soybeans still at $20 CAD.
Even better, I just read today that canola oil is now cheaper than Palm oil, which has almost never happened in history.
One news story I read a couple of days ago said that as it stands right now, renewable diesel/jet fuel from Canada does not qualify for the renewable fuel subsidy in the US. But there's nothing stopping the subsidized US renewable fuel from finding its way into our market, which would drastically undercut our renewable fuel price, and maybe the nail in the coffin for many of these proposed renewable fuels plants which have not yet been built. Apparently this was old news, but seems as if the market is suddenly trading it as if it is new news.
https://www.producer.com/news/renewa...be-devastated/
Crush margin just keeps going up every day that the price of canola goes down. Now almost 10 times what it was last year at this time.
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Mar 22, 2023 | 20:23
12
MacDon was the one who put out what sounded like crazy targets back in early October of 2021. $53 proportional was the ultimate number, from Socrates.1256 new resistance level, courtesy of the quant. I got the above listed 599 and 608 as buy levels. Also a $2356~ target, yes that's $53/bushel as resistance. 2356 popped up back in Late july and i thought it was full of shit, but the drought got worse, it hadn't really rained since, and inputs are getting more scarce. There's no time limit on it but in my opinion we are in a 8 yr drought lining up with the solar cycle and global cooling, the inverse or the flip side of the previous 10 year wet. Be very phucking careful pricing. Feb looks like closest turn point, expecting a high. This is a long ways from over. Only a monthly close under 599 would get me bearish. Somebody shut up the covid threads.... we got $ to make, the kind you retire on.
No specific timeline given, but I assume would be somewhere within the 8th year cycle he is referring to.
I am still willing to wager that he was correct.
Does anyone else keep in touch with Macdon02?
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Mar 23, 2023 | 00:03
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Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5
Sounds like a very good policy. But is there any Canadian government agency that does have good knowledge and produces useful information?
What non Gov't agency do farmers use that has good knowledge and useful info. Did they say sell or hold? Did farmers listen?
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Mar 23, 2023 | 05:36
14
Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5
MacDon was the one who put out what sounded like crazy targets back in early October of 2021. $53 proportional was the ultimate number, from Socrates.1256 new resistance level, courtesy of the quant. I got the above listed 599 and 608 as buy levels. Also a $2356~ target, yes that's $53/bushel as resistance. 2356 popped up back in Late july and i thought it was full of shit, but the drought got worse, it hadn't really rained since, and inputs are getting more scarce. There's no time limit on it but in my opinion we are in a 8 yr drought lining up with the solar cycle and global cooling, the inverse or the flip side of the previous 10 year wet. Be very phucking careful pricing. Feb looks like closest turn point, expecting a high. This is a long ways from over. Only a monthly close under 599 would get me bearish. Somebody shut up the covid threads.... we got $ to make, the kind you retire on.
No specific timeline given, but I assume would be somewhere within the 8th year cycle he is referring to.
I am still willing to wager that he was correct.
Does anyone else keep in touch with Macdon02?
This quote appears to be Armstrong Economics-ish.
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Mar 23, 2023 | 05:57
16
Originally Posted by wheatking16
This quote appears to be Armstrong Economics-ish.
Yes, as I credited above, coming from Socrates. I'm not really convinced about the utility of that program. There seems to be a lot of moving the goal posts in hindsight when Armstrong takes credit for predictions.
Last edited by AlbertaFarmer5; Mar 23, 2023 at 06:02.
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Mar 23, 2023 | 05:59
17
Originally Posted by jazz
And then there is this from today:
The Government of #Russia has adopted a decision to ban the export of #****seed until 31.08.2023. In 2022, the production was 4,515 million tons (2,794 in 2021)
Probably not a market mover, but in 2022, it did produce 1/4 as much canola/****seed as all of Canada did
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Mar 23, 2023 | 06:15
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Originally Posted by wmoebis
What non Gov't agency do farmers use that has good knowledge and useful info. Did they say sell or hold? Did farmers listen?
Having access to good information, and listening to it or acting on it are completely unrelated topics. Just ask me...
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Mar 23, 2023 | 07:11
19
According to StoneX's forecast, in the current year the consumption of soyoil in Brazil will reach 8.5 million tons (+12% compared to 2022). Consumption for biodiesel production will be 5.8 million tons (+24%). Soyoil production in Brazil is expected to reach 10.4 million tons (+2%), and soyoil exports are projected to reach 1.8 million tons (-31%).
So, in spite of Brazil's record large soybean crop, they're soy oil experts will actually be down this year, as internal consumption has increased. Granted, Brazil is not a big processor, exporting mostly raw product. Argentina importing significant amount of Brazilian soybeans to keep their crush facilities functioning with their drastically reduced crop.⁰
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Mar 23, 2023 | 07:21
20
Bio Fuel is the cornerstone of meeting their Co2 reduction goals for 2030.
Heavy truck,Rail,Jet,etc where there is zero opinion to reduce Co2.
Also a government subsidy war on with Biden's "Inflation Reduction" attracting all the CapEx.
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Mar 23, 2023 | 07:37
21
Amazing, canola and crude oil charts can overlay a Credit Suisse chart. Shows how the great financial crisis has a direct impact on the grain and energy markets. 2023 now compares closely to 2008 crisis . . . .
Last edited by errolanderson; Mar 23, 2023 at 08:53.
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Mar 23, 2023 | 09:23
22
Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5
Even better, I just read today that canola oil is now cheaper than Palm oil, which has almost never happened in history.
One news story I read a couple of days ago said that as it stands right now, renewable diesel/jet fuel from Canada does not qualify for the renewable fuel subsidy in the US. But there's nothing stopping the subsidized US renewable fuel from finding its way into our market, which would drastically undercut our renewable fuel price, and maybe the nail in the coffin for many of these proposed renewable fuels plants which have not yet been built. Apparently this was old news, but seems as if the market is suddenly trading it as if it is new news.
https://www.producer.com/news/renewa...be-devastated/
Crush margin just keeps going up every day that the price of canola goes down. Now almost 10 times what it was last year at this time.
ICE CANADA: The Canola Board Crush Margin is comprised of an oil and meal contribution and a seed cost. It is calculated by subtracting the ICE Futures Canada canola futures price from the sum of the weighted value of the per tonne Chicago Board of Trade futures price for soybean oil and soybean meal. The calculation is based on a 40% oil contribution and 60% meal contribution per tonne of canola seed crushed. The margin calculation is currency adjusted using the Bank of Canada noon rate and is published in both Canadian and U.S. dollars. The margin calculation is a measure of the trend in core processing returns at approximate industry yields. Actual canola crushing margins are affected by numerous factors including individual processing plant yields, actual oil content of the seed, and the pricing basis for oil, meal and seed.
The canola board margin is useless ... it has next to zero relevance for actual crush margins...
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Mar 23, 2023 | 09:54
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Originally Posted by LWeber
ICE CANADA: The Canola Board Crush Margin is comprised of an oil and meal contribution and a seed cost. It is calculated by subtracting the ICE Futures Canada canola futures price from the sum of the weighted value of the per tonne Chicago Board of Trade futures price for soybean oil and soybean meal. The calculation is based on a 40% oil contribution and 60% meal contribution per tonne of canola seed crushed. The margin calculation is currency adjusted using the Bank of Canada noon rate and is published in both Canadian and U.S. dollars. The margin calculation is a measure of the trend in core processing returns at approximate industry yields. Actual canola crushing margins are affected by numerous factors including individual processing plant yields, actual oil content of the seed, and the pricing basis for oil, meal and seed.
The canola board margin is useless ... it has next to zero relevance for actual crush margins...
Thank you for the explanation. What do you use instead?
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Mar 23, 2023 | 10:17
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Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5
Thank you for the explanation. What do you use instead?
Everything you need to track it yourself is listed at the bottom
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Mar 23, 2023 | 11:07
25
Last I saw Nipawin Bunge was doing 1500 T/Day.
I assume one of smallest plants.
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Mar 23, 2023 | 13:14
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Originally Posted by shtferbrains
Last I saw Nipawin Bunge was doing 1500 T/Day.
I assume one of smallest plants.
At 9 mil crush per year - 24,657 MT are crushed every single day...
14 plants in Canada - averaging 1761 MT a day
Transparency is a four letter word.... and is worse since 2012 than it has ever been in history.
Too many ass lickers and not enough ass kickers ...
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Mar 23, 2023 | 15:06
27
I did my part, I sold a load yesterday. I'd be thrilled if that was the bottom. Soyoil chart looks UGLY. Likely a follower to canola. haha
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Mar 23, 2023 | 21:24
28
Originally Posted by crusher
I did my part, I sold a load yesterday. I'd be thrilled if that was the bottom. Soyoil chart looks UGLY. Likely a follower to canola. haha
I agree, ugly looking chart for soyoil, not sure how canola will respond in the near term.
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Mar 23, 2023 | 22:25
29
Larry,
Admittedly there are many factors in a net canola price, but do you have any charts of crush margin vs. Canola price? Is your current crush margin at the high end of historic? How does it compare to 2022? At current new crop prices, with a tonne per acre yield, doesn’t leave me with much of a margin.
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Mar 24, 2023 | 05:10
30
Never any bargins at the local feedmill in January so the chart shows. Darn hungry cows !
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