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Mar 13, 2023 | 16:02
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Is Russia going to cut off the Black Sea region from exports, or allow shipping to continue? My gut says some black swan is going to happen in the wheat market. One elevator in particular very interested in how much wheat I have left, and what price I will sell it for. They keep calling every couple weeks to see if I will finally let it go. When I say I will wait, they keep saying it is just going to continue to drop. I don’t really deal with them much/at all. Hauled a couple loads there once a few years ago. Seems odd to me.
Maybe things will start rocking once USA winter wheat starts coming out of dormancy and the winter kill story starts coming out?
Last edited by flea beetle; Mar 13, 2023 at 16:11.
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Mar 13, 2023 | 16:50
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Russia has agreed to extend but only for 60 days.
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Mar 13, 2023 | 17:43
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 Originally Posted by oldjim
Russia has agreed to extend but only for 60 days.
Did they actually agree? I thought it was they would extend 60 days if some of their needs/demands were met. Russia proposed an amendment to the 120 day deal and I don’t think Ukraine has accepted yet.
Last edited by flea beetle; Mar 13, 2023 at 17:56.
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Mar 13, 2023 | 18:35
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The commodity bull market is far from over. We are in the process of making lows this month into next. Wheat will likely be the leader. Doubt we see new highs before new crop though.
So says the unbiased poster who still has 3/4 of his wheat in the bins unpriced, so I'm not talking my position at all...
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Mar 13, 2023 | 18:53
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Here's what both sides are saying about the 60 day extension:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/13/russia-agrees-to-60-day-black-sea-grain-deal-extension-a80466
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-ready-to-extend-the-grain-deal-for-60-days
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Mar 13, 2023 | 21:28
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Originally Posted by jazz
Although I do agree we are typically hotter and drier during an El Niño, all indicators that I follow point to a very wet June/July. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but I am hopeful. Will see if we get enough rain in early summer to carry us through to fall like this past year. Lord knows we need it!
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Mar 14, 2023 | 08:04
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Wasn’t 2009 and 2010 record rain fall events for southern Saskatchewan, both those years were El Niño years.
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Mar 14, 2023 | 09:38
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Something going on today with wheat
Some premiums the last hour
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Mar 14, 2023 | 10:25
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Commodity board wheat did full 180.
Was down 8 cents now up 14
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Mar 14, 2023 | 10:39
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Originally Posted by TSIPP
Wasn’t 2009 and 2010 record rain fall events for southern Saskatchewan, both those years were El Niño years.
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Mar 14, 2023 | 11:06
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Some wheat market dissection
https://millermagazine.com/blog/global-wheat-market-sits-on-a-powder-keg-5038
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Mar 14, 2023 | 11:09
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Read an article in the Western Producer back in Nov or Dec that thought the wheat market should rally in April.
Can’t remember who wrote it or their reasoning but thought I would hold my wheat till then and see if they were right.
Might be a mistake by me but should know in about a month.
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Mar 14, 2023 | 12:07
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Haven’t sold a kernel.
These crooks should be put away.
This little rally today is a joke, leave bin doors closed!!!!
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Mar 14, 2023 | 16:34
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Is it strange to anyone else that wheat is UP on news that the black sea corridor agreement should be extended for 60 days? Where did all the heavy selling come from in the lead-up to this news?
Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5
The commodity bull market is far from over. We are in the process of making lows this month into next. Wheat will likely be the leader. Doubt we see new highs before new crop though.
So says the unbiased poster who still has 3/4 of his wheat in the bins unpriced, so I'm not talking my position at all...
Originally Posted by BTO780
Haven’t sold a kernel.
These crooks should be put away.
This little rally today is a joke, leave bin doors closed!!!!
thanks for doing your part to support prices. lets hope you're some of the few that held, not the many.
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Mar 14, 2023 | 16:47
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Originally Posted by Marusko
Is it strange to anyone else that wheat is UP on news that the black sea corridor agreement should be extended for 60 days? Where did all the heavy selling come from in the lead-up to this news?
thanks for doing your part to support prices. lets hope you're some of the few that held, not the many.
Ya seemed like a strange day , down at the start then a $20 swing up on limited news ?
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Mar 14, 2023 | 17:27
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Originally Posted by Marusko
Is it strange to anyone else that wheat is UP on news that the black sea corridor agreement should be extended for 60 days? Where did all the heavy selling come from in the lead-up to this news?
thanks for doing your part to support prices. lets hope you're some of the few that held, not the many.
The 60 day deal isn’t ratified yet, and the markets are jittery over it. Massive net short position to be covered if talks don’t go the right way.
Original 120 day deal was worded that it would automatically renew if neither side proposed change. Russia proposed change, and Ukraine not happy about it. This could go either way.
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Mar 14, 2023 | 17:51
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They might regret shipping out all that cheap wheat from the Black Sea area .
Ukraine production will be severely hampered and who knows what the growing season will be like in Russia .
Could be an interesting summer if there is not a complete financial collapse in the meantime
Teetering on edge now with some bank failures
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Mar 14, 2023 | 18:36
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None to wet in western Canada for that matter.
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Mar 14, 2023 | 21:36
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Originally Posted by Robertbarlage
None to wet in western Canada for that matter.
And for me a good thing, el nino makes a crappy cool damp year but good crops here.
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Mar 14, 2023 | 22:35
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Originally Posted by Robertbarlage
None to wet in western Canada for that matter.
Nor Australia:
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Mar 15, 2023 | 16:22
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Originally Posted by TSIPP
Wasn’t 2009 and 2010 record rain fall events for southern Saskatchewan, both those years were El Niño years.
If my mind serves me correctly, there was some volcano in Europe spewing lots of particles into the air. So much that jets flying through the ash clouds were stalling their engines. And then air traffic was re-routing. That ash encircled the northern hemisphere in mere days. And then it started raining. Just an observation…
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Mar 17, 2023 | 20:32
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Taking off next week, or going in the dump?
P and h was calling beginning of the week offering $11.25 for #1-13.5. Text went out today that they put it up to $11.50.
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Mar 17, 2023 | 23:08
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Originally Posted by flea beetle
Taking off next week, or going in the dump?
P and h was calling beginning of the week offering $11.25 for #1-13.5. Text went out today that they put it up to $11.50.
All the known bearish news is priced in now. Grain corridor extended. Russia undercutting everyone to get their last years big crop out the door. Australia's big crop last year. Shorts are at record levels. Sell the rumour buy the fact. Exactly opposite to what happened last spring.
Wheat kept going up while the rest of the markets were melting down due to bank failures and panics. Now the market slowly comes to the realization that the Ukraine conflict isn't going the way the media says it is. Stocks are still very tight. Russia, Ukraine, Australia, Argentina, South Africa are all forecast to have significantly smaller wheat crops.
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Mar 18, 2023 | 19:27
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i farm in marginal low rainfall country but is quite reliable.
are some of the poor wheat in texas oklahoma etc similar meaning they dont have to deviate to far from average and turns bad quick?
yeah asked similar question a few weeks back.
crop ratings seemed to not raise many suprises yet or to early
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Mar 18, 2023 | 20:28
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Originally Posted by Landdownunder
i farm in marginal low rainfall country but is quite reliable.
are some of the poor wheat in texas oklahoma etc similar meaning they dont have to deviate to far from average and turns bad quick?
yeah asked similar question a few weeks back.
crop ratings seemed to not raise many suprises yet or to early
I think Texas and Oklahoma are very dry and likely to have low yields. But I think those states are small potatoes in the total picture.
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Mar 25, 2023 | 06:57
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After all of the drama that occurred this week, here's what happened to my local prices. CPS wheat up 18 cents since last friday, canola down 16 cents. I guess the world didn't end after all.
I'll go out on a limb and say we've seen the Lows for the year, or at the very least it won't spend very much time below those levels.
At some point, the fundamentals of grains will prevail over the fear of an economic meltdown.
Anything, the fundamentals are more bullish now than they were in March of last year when the market was pricing in the worst possible case scenario, which didn't play out fast enough to keep the bullish story going.
Last edited by AlbertaFarmer5; Mar 25, 2023 at 16:22.
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Apr 4, 2023 | 06:57
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Dry areas still too dry , eastern wheat is in good shape , Northern Wheat area more snow and could be late .
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Apr 4, 2023 | 08:03
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Elevators don’t seem to want wheat. Futures rose roughly 75-80 cents/bushel lately, and basis responded in the opposite direction. Same net price, just the elevator makes more when you dump it…
I had the urge to lock the basis a few weeks ago, but chickened out. Coulda/shoulda/woulda.
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