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Jan 21, 2023 | 01:13
1
Where do you see land prices going from here? Higher interest rates seem to be starting to do their job on asset values, but the horns haven't completely retracted on the bulls out there.
One neighbour who has had his quarter for "sale" for about 5-6 years way above market price brought it down from $640,000 to $450,000 last year. It didn't sell. So figured I would give him a call and see if anything had changed. Still at $450,000. Keep in mind there is about 80 acres of grain land basically all on a side hill, then it flattens out and there is about 40 acres of half assed pasture, and then 40 acres of alkaline pasture that doesn't really produce because it is alkaline creek bottom. Told him about some recent sales of grain land in the area lower than what he is asking, and he responded that he has had 2 other guys phone recently as well. Pretty much said he isn't moving on price.
This is touching my home quarter, but I just don't see myself paying that kind of money for basically half a quarter of paying land, and half a quarter that might support 15 pairs. More likely 10-12.
What is everyone seeing in their area? Have the recent rate increases slowed things down from moving yet? Or still business as usual?
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Jan 21, 2023 | 06:46
2
No sales are still going higher. Our area has very few sellers so when someone sells if they advertise it they get paid way more than just letting one guy have it. We were cheap compared to other areas due to no sellers for years. If 300 to 600 is tops and we do get a correction it will be 150 to 300.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 07:13
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Land speculators still buying the odd single 1/4 and spend the 1st year cleaning up old building sites,drainage,fence lines ,etc. etc. Then rent to up and coming young pup for good money who should have bought it in the first place. Bigger land sales pushed by Huts, Amish, Dairy, and BTO's so don't see any slowdown coming soon. Super sized hog barns being built north of us now to feed hog processing plants to the west. We are turning into a ( little Winkler ) 
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Jan 21, 2023 | 07:15
4
I’m curious what happens when all the bigger guys have finally eaten the smaller guys and there is no land left to change hands? What then? It’s getting close to that now. How do you value something that never sells?
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Jan 21, 2023 | 07:17
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Land prices keep jumping in this area and rent is following suit, many guys buying are not fly by night outfits, good cash flow, good operators, family coming home to farm and are needing to expand to carry several families.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 07:27
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4 farms where sold to 20 amish guys here a few years ago so maybe the little guys are buying out the bigger guys.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 07:38
7
$19 canola, .50 lentils, .55 chickpeas, wheat, durum, and barley are filler crops. At these prices land prices will continue where they are or move higher.
Was told by an accountant one BTO outfit is after all they can get.
High interest rates, inputs, or machinery don’t seem to scare these guys.
I hope prices keep going, just means things may change for me sooner than expected .. nothing wrong with that.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 14:42
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If it's touching your home quarter and you can swing it. You have to.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 15:08
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buy it...never know what kind of neighbour you may end up with especially since its by your home
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Jan 21, 2023 | 15:15
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Agee with the two above.
it’s touching your home 1/4 I’m surprised you’re waiting.
For what???
You will 100% regret it if someone else gets it. Maybe not right away but for sure in time it’ll be a mistake not jumping on it.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 16:39
11
What's the legal, I need a place to grow pot, raise free range pitbulls and store my large collection of unused 3 tons.
Or you sit down pencil the value of the land reasonably and defendably in a negotiation, add a premium for the proximity and shutting out the nightmare potential (me) and politely approach him and give him your number and a decent time to say yes or no. If you don't get it you tried, if you get it and it won't break you you'll be happy always you got it
Land at this point doesn't have any reason to go down, still guys with the farming machine running well and that machine dictates investing in dirt if they are running it wisely unless something drastic happens it's going up albeit slower imo than the last few years ,for a while yet.
Last edited by mcfarms; Jan 21, 2023 at 16:49.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 17:16
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Unless there was no possible way for me to afford it I would not let a quarter beside my yard go.
Can that pasture be broke?
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Jan 21, 2023 | 17:55
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McFarms if your going to have pit bulls and pot you need some kind of old tow truck to drag old cars in to fill the yard so no one notices all the old beaters sitting in your yard purchasing product.
Seems to work around here.
My neighbors all keep nice yards but I used to bale across from one of those.
Interesting on Friday evening.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 20:05
14
450 000/80=?
Can you use the pasture for the bison? Is the poor pasture at all remotely fixable? Is the half bleep pasture able to become better than it is? Is there soil problems? Sounds like salinity in pasture.
It would be hard to let it go, but it doesn’t sound like a real stellar quarter, touching your home quarter or not. At least you are pondering it and not being automatic about it. Obviously if it was productive enough you would bite.
Without seeing it and knowing the layout, knowing the land, none of us should arbitrarily say buy it no matter what.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 22:38
15
 Originally Posted by mcfarms
What's the legal, I need a place to grow pot, raise free range pitbulls and store my large collection of unused 3 tons.
Or you sit down pencil the value of the land reasonably and defendably in a negotiation, add a premium for the proximity and shutting out the nightmare potential (me) and politely approach him and give him your number and a decent time to say yes or no. If you don't get it you tried, if you get it and it won't break you you'll be happy always you got it
Land at this point doesn't have any reason to go down, still guys with the farming machine running well and that machine dictates investing in dirt if they are running it wisely unless something drastic happens it's going up albeit slower imo than the last few years ,for a while yet.
Sorry for taking up the extra space.
But I couldn't triple like the first paragraph. So real. If it ain't yet it will be. Wake up.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 23:18
16
Originally Posted by Rinker
Unless there was no possible way for me to afford it I would not let a quarter beside my yard go.
Can that pasture be broke?
40 acres of pasture could be broke, but the other 40 acres is a creek from an alkaline lake running to the north Saskatchewan river. The land that this water touches/floods isn’t worth breaking. No crops grow in it. Just sporadic slough grass grows. So you would be essentially buying a 120 acres of productive land, with 40 acres of unproductive lowland attached to it.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 23:27
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Originally Posted by Sheepwheat
450 000/80=?
Can you use the pasture for the bison? Is the poor pasture at all remotely fixable? Is the half bleep pasture able to become better than it is? Is there soil problems? Sounds like salinity in pasture.
It would be hard to let it go, but it doesn’t sound like a real stellar quarter, touching your home quarter or not. At least you are pondering it and not being automatic about it. Obviously if it was productive enough you would bite.
Without seeing it and knowing the layout, knowing the land, none of us should arbitrarily say buy it no matter what.
Yes the pasture could be used for the bison. There is no fixing 40 of the 80 acres of pasture. The other 40 acres could be broke to grain farm.
Don’t get me wrong, it isn’t a horrible quarter. But I am in the process right now of buying 3 other quarters from another neighbour. 1 real nice grain quarter with a 20 acre yard taken out of it, one full grain quarter that is quite hilly, and a pasture quarter. All are sold for less than the asking on this quarter next to my yard. Just priced too high in my mind.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 23:33
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Originally Posted by quadtrac
Agee with the two above.
it’s touching your home 1/4 I’m surprised you’re waiting.
For what???
You will 100% regret it if someone else gets it. Maybe not right away but for sure in time it’ll be a mistake not jumping on it.
If I was only buying the one quarter, I might consider overspending a bit. But I bought the farm yard and 3 quarters off my parents 2.5-3 years ago, 5.5 quarters from a neighbour 2 years ago, and in the process of buying 3 more quarters from another neighbour now. No need to go looking to overspend at this point.
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Jan 21, 2023 | 23:39
19
Guys I never made it to MIT but my simple arithmetic makes 450000 at 6% interest over 15 years with an average cost of 650 an acre pretty hard to see a profit unless she’s a bumper every year. I believe my numbers are relatively conservative were I grow grass and u would have to be one lucky SOB to make that pay for itself year after year. Only logical reason for buying it is for the next generation with monies from the rest of the farm. Which is ok but u gotta live with that decision especially if the cash cow canola takes a tumble.
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Jan 22, 2023 | 08:25
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Well assuming we dont get a mass die off from the vax attack, the world is going to be under a lot of pressure to feed itself in the next 25yrs. Ziehan might be off on a few things, but he is right that if globalization cracks (which it has), there is going to be more hungry and cold mouths in the world.
Canada is one of only a few nations with excess to export. So thats a plus for this biz.
But on the other hand we have the marxist climate loons trying to shut it down. If we ever let Trudeau and his tards do what he did to fisheries here in western canada, it will be the end. The govt regulated that industry down to nothing and now the chinese fish our shores, take the product back home, chop it up, repackage and export back to us.
Our trade position is precarious too. We rely on China and a few other countries taking our products. We saw what china did to canola a few yrs ago. Chinese money could easily be directed to Russia and then they start growing canola and lentils and durum. If we get into a hot war with them, we could be screwed.
Last edited by jazz; Jan 22, 2023 at 08:27.
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Jan 22, 2023 | 09:39
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Jazz he says Chinas done in a few years so that canola market definitely could dry up.
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Jan 22, 2023 | 10:00
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Farmland has had quite a run, dare I say gone parabolic. Would I go into debt in this rising interest rate market nope, but would I sell and hold dollars, nope.
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Jan 22, 2023 | 12:36
23
My son and I bought an adjoining 1/4 last year old yard site pasture and or grain. It needs some work to clean up but that's part of my retirement projects. There was some small parcels next to it (village site long time ago ) that I wanted. Was able to snap up 2 of the 3 pieces but missed the trigger on the 3rd. There's now a 1972 motorhome ( dragged in ) for a living res. on the 3rd. Winning !!!! 
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Jan 22, 2023 | 17:21
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So what is everyone’s opinion on where we are at based on the 1980’s? Are we even anywhere near having a similar type of event? Are we in a situation that will play out worse than that timeframe? Are we in the 70’s still, and have a few years before we have to start worrying?
Personally I feel we are on the crest, and headed over the downslope. Just not sure if it is a small gully, or a cliff.🤣 Not going to sit still in fear and do nothing, but want to look over my shoulder cautiously as well.
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Jan 22, 2023 | 17:36
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Originally Posted by flea beetle
So what is everyone’s opinion on where we are at based on the 1980’s? Are we even anywhere near having a similar type of event? Are we in a situation that will play out worse than that timeframe? Are we in the 70’s still, and have a few years before we have to start worrying?
Personally I feel we are on the crest, and headed over the downslope. Just not sure if it is a small gully, or a cliff.🤣 Not going to sit still in fear and do nothing, but want to look over my shoulder cautiously as well.
You will have a better idea when 1 bank crashes.
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Jan 22, 2023 | 17:47
26
well i seen back in 08 land droped 50% overnight in ireland , now its up to around of 75% of where it was before 08 crash , we moved here in 2006 and the increase in land value here from then to now has been huge and has turned out to be a great investment ,however after seeing what happened in ireland i never buy the opinion that land stays going up , would not take much to pop the bubble here now i think
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Jan 22, 2023 | 18:45
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Originally Posted by cropgrower
well i seen back in 08 land droped 50% overnight in ireland , now its up to around of 75% of where it was before 08 crash , we moved here in 2006 and the increase in land value here from then to now has been huge and has turned out to be a great investment ,however after seeing what happened in ireland i never buy the opinion that land stays going up , would not take much to pop the bubble here now i think
Did the cash rent drop 50% as well?
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Jan 22, 2023 | 19:14
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i would not think their was a huge change in rent as far as i remember , banks pretty much stopped giving loans , but their was almost no land on market (who wants to sell for half ?) except what had been repossed by banks , some farmers bought back their farms for less than half too! their was huge winners and losers when the smoke cleared
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Jan 22, 2023 | 19:41
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In the 80’s it was interest rates, and interest rates alone that caused mayhem.
Now? There are many things that imho will cause mayhem.
Iron and the wants or needs to have the latest and greatest. In the 80’s, guys made do. Now?
Extreme expenses. My dads 80’s income tax says it cost him maybe forty bucks to grow a crop, all in.
Extreme land values. Values that are inflated far above farming actually paying for it in most cases, unless one is exceptionally fortunate.
Extreme rent rates.
Summerfallow. Like it or not, it DOES store moisture and releases nutrients. Everyone summerfallowed some in the 80’s. It got guys through with zero inputs in a pinch.
Diversity of farms. In the 80’s, hardly anyone had straight grain. The diversity helped many through those dark years. This includes cows, pork, and a lot of farms still grew a lot of their own food.
In the 80’s, there were western grain stabilization payments and ad hoc payments guys who didn’t need it still received.
In the 80’s, many, many farmers were making more in interest than they were farming. The careful and dare I say the wise, made out like bandits. A far too often overlooked fact in an era when 20 000 was a pretty fair net income.
That’s just a very few differences from now and then.
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Jan 22, 2023 | 19:49
30
In the eighties BTO,s who outbid for land then could not make payments cried to the gov,t about banks repo their land, so the farm debt review board was set up.Lenders were forced to negotiate, mostly for half of origanal loan.Pure crap.
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