|
|
Feb 7, 2023 | 17:13
181
What are the bar chart and the purple line on that chart.
I assume volume and open interest but they don't match others.
How do you use the bottom of the chart to indicate trends?
|
|
|
Feb 7, 2023 | 17:53
182
 Originally Posted by shtferbrains
What are the bar chart and the purple line on that chart.
I assume volume and open interest but they don't match others.
How do you use the bottom of the chart to indicate trends?
volume and open interest, yes
my Simple Joe interpretation. bottom line indicates support. upper line is resistance. Wherever it breaks through those lines, it should continue and trade in a new range in that direction. Errol called it a breakout triangle, so maybe this converging of lines indicates a new trading range is imminent. Since support is fairly level but the highs are trending downward, the general trend is downward. So the futures are more likely to head toward a downward range in my back of the napkin opinion. but don't you dare sell till March futures hit 855, I want my GPO to hit.
Unless, of course, it breaks through that resistance line, and trades in a new range above, so you should hold for 900. Tongue only slightly in cheek. The pattern works... until it doesn't!
disclaimer: amateur opinion. I know nothing about iron butterflies and doji candles and whatever. If someone wants to correct me, please do.
Last edited by Marusko; Feb 7, 2023 at 17:56.
|
|
|
Feb 7, 2023 | 22:04
183
I've got my targets at $839 then $857. See what happens. That's against the May.
|
|
|
Feb 28, 2023 | 09:09
184
Originally Posted by wheatking16
COT are running behind by three weeks... so this was only posted Friday Feb 24.
Funds are front month traders; the same week the bullish Doji formed; they added 5,876 short contracts or 15.67% of their short position to finish Jan 31 with a net short in canola of 43,368 contracts. What did they see that the Doji did not?
Trust the Doji and your dog....
|
|
|
Feb 28, 2023 | 10:27
185
still bullish Larry? I'm starting to think my 855 was optimistic. don't think crusher's 839 hit either.
|
|
|
Feb 28, 2023 | 10:43
186
Originally Posted by Marusko
still bullish Larry? I'm starting to think my 855 was optimistic. don't think crusher's 839 hit either.
I haven't been bullish canola for a long time.
Where Mallee lives - AWB in Victoria, AUS bids for canola after yesterday's close:
CAD$631/661/MT
ADM Lloyd closed yesterday at $833 for March del
|
|
Feb 28, 2023 | 10:50
187
Oil is rising, I wouldnt get too worried. In spring you will see prices jump back. I see no bags in the fields.
|
|
|
Feb 28, 2023 | 12:56
188
I must be misinterpreting your Doji comments then, can you explain?
|
|
|
Mar 1, 2023 | 11:09
189
Still waiting for my $839. If I had used March futures it would have triggered. May has only reached $835. Still lots of days yet. Buyers are still out there, getting specials on a regular basis, though last months $19.75 was $19.50 last week and $19.25 today. I’m comforted in the fact it’s 28 on the golf course in Punta Cana today. Oh well.
|
|
Mar 1, 2023 | 17:18
190
Price slowly going down.
Farmers keep selling.
RP 19 buck premium was full in a
Blur.
Best when train coming, and they need to fill.
Sounds like lots of 27 dollar canola still in the bins also..
Last edited by Partners; Mar 1, 2023 at 17:43.
|
|
|
Mar 1, 2023 | 19:13
191
Originally Posted by Partners
Price slowly going down.
Farmers keep selling.
RP 19 buck premium was full in a
Blur.
Best when train coming, and they need to fill.
Sounds like lots of 27 dollar canola still in the bins also..
You had it right in the fall , Me, not so much !
|
|
|
Mar 1, 2023 | 19:14
192
86 degrees in the water, reef is great
Dive on !
|
|
|
Mar 6, 2023 | 16:23
193
dropped my target, sold at 829, basis got me to 19.50, pretty good price still. i'm sold out now. time will tell if that was wise or not but i've got a feeling there's lots of canola in the bins yet. So far have lost on my gamble to hold on to wheat, waiting for more ukraine war disruption, so i cashed in my canola.
|
|
|
Mar 10, 2023 | 16:33
194
If you're pooping your pants on canola's swing down this week, there may be hope yet:
https://marketsfarm.com/confirmation-of-large-canola-short-position-slowly-appearing/?_ga=2.209515157.625519779.1678478549-1171420672.1678478549&_gl=1*d7kcgn*_ga*MTE3MTQyMDY 3Mi4xNjc4NDc4NTQ5*_ga_ZHEKTK6KD0*MTY3ODQ4NjI5My4yL jEuMTY3ODQ4NzIyMy4xNC4wLjA.
what century are we in? This site doesn't allow you to put links in????
Last edited by Marusko; Mar 10, 2023 at 16:47.
|
|
|
Mar 10, 2023 | 17:14
195
Originally Posted by Marusko
If you're pooping your pants on canola's swing down this week, there may be hope yet:
The size of the fund short position in canola rose in February and likely grew even larger in March
You think funds are selling the s/hit out the market and hoping it goes up?
|
|
|
Mar 10, 2023 | 18:02
196
Originally Posted by LWeber
The size of the fund short position in canola rose in February and likely grew even larger in March
You think funds are selling the s/hit out the market and hoping it goes up?
Commodity manipulation on the comex is a tried and true practice. Been going on for decades. Look at gold.
I wouldnt get too panicked yet. The short sellers were targeting NG a few days ago too and they got burned.
Same thing probably happens to canola and gets a rally. But if you see one, I would be a seller for sure. Be a nasty recession on the back half of the yr.
|
|
|
Mar 10, 2023 | 19:06
197
i think the link says the short options on canola are nearly the same as as the calls on corn and beans combined?
That cant be a good thing for farmers holding inventory?
|
|
|
Mar 14, 2023 | 08:30
198
Where are the chart boys?
No end in sight for the free fall.
Or did all burn their charts
|
|
|
Mar 14, 2023 | 13:31
199
Originally Posted by Marusko
Well Partners, I posted the above on Feb 7, and would you believe it, March hit 852 on March 1st-3rd, at the tip of my upper boundary line. and then turned around and took a dump. Didn't quite hit my 855 target but I ended up selling at 860 net, and that apparently was a good choice.
Originally Posted by LWeber
The size of the fund short position in canola rose in February and likely grew even larger in March
You think funds are selling the s/hit out the market and hoping it goes up?
not saying there's not more downside to come, but the article says it's the largest net short position since March 2020, does that mean nothing? If they're selling short, they're going to have to buy back eventually... maybe a turnaround in spring/summer when the weather market comes into play? Maybe won't hit 852 again but if I still had canola to sell I would be holding and not panic selling right now - that's my point. May/July '23 hovering at 755 today
who knows, maybe come fall, 755 will be a dream
Last edited by Marusko; Mar 14, 2023 at 13:34.
|
|
|
Mar 14, 2023 | 14:13
200
So how far will it fall?
|
|
|
Mar 14, 2023 | 16:50
201
Originally Posted by Partners
So how far will it fall?
Dunno. I'm not sure where to pinpoint a new support level at once it breaks through a range. May canola's last dip (in January) was in the 790 area so from what I see now, I'd be targeting that or just below that as the next high point.
|
|
|
Mar 15, 2023 | 08:03
202
One chart person said support at 750..
Below that now..
Rock bottom here we come.
More malt bly..
|
|
|
Mar 15, 2023 | 09:17
203
Crap insurance canola price $18.82
Local elevator crooks price $15.71 Dec.
My math tells me to put the seed in the tank and farm for da program.
|
|
Mar 15, 2023 | 10:02
204
This is accurate...
"No no one can accurately explain it. The market is too big and too complex. It is going down at the moment because there are more sellers than buyers. Not being a wise guy, it’s just what markets do when the commodity being traded is available to anyone and their brother to gamble on. Unlimited bets. Markets are the net thoughts of all its participants at any nano second in time."
Traders make money on CHANGE in prices, not like producer and end-user.
|
|
|
Mar 15, 2023 | 12:19
205
The spread between SCIC and the actual price is going to make things very interesting, especially if price keeps dropping. Say if we have a $14 canola this fall and the SCIC is $18.82 and the producer is 40 canola average and they insure at 80% so 32. They grow a 32 and gross $448 I’m guessing on rented land with say $1000N which is roughly the midpoint on N this year, that there is not one producer in Saskatchewan with a cost of production that low. It is easy to look at SCIC numbers and think, “(I am insured for $602 (32*18.82)) but you are not. You’re insured for 32 bushels of production regardless of price and below that you are covered at $18.82 per bushel.
|
|
|
Mar 15, 2023 | 13:32
206
2004 was a good example , everything froze , bushels were just above crop insurance, feed price was dismal . Never got a dime from crop insurance and lost big time .
Was worse than 2001-02 droughts .
It can happen
Even with crop insurance your still at the whim of Mother Nature
|
|
|
Mar 15, 2023 | 20:56
207
I was told Australian canola was now being imported into Canadian crushers… the further drop in black oil has magnified canola declines….
Canola can rally 100$/t just as fast as it dropped…. When the weather risk volatility becomes a factor again.
Cheers
|
|
|
Mar 16, 2023 | 07:16
208
Was given only one day this week to haul canola ( MONDAY ) steady lineup at elevator. Couldn't help but notice it was going in one door and out the other via line of trucks going straight to crushers. Crusher margins still good but maybe inventory is getting tight. Or just worried trucks will be short come fert season I don't know.
|
|
|
Mar 16, 2023 | 12:48
209
Canola up nearly $20/t from its lows. I hope that's the beginning. I'm not smart enough to calculate the number of tonnes left on the prairies times $100, but I'm thinking its a big number.
|
|
|
Mar 21, 2023 | 08:36
210
Nobody forward pricing for the fall.
Wonder how long before crushers get a bit worried?
$15.20 today for sept..
Yr ago it was 18.50.for sept..
|
|
