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Dec 2, 2022 | 03:29
61
Aint no ifs or buts deadset australia IS going to have record canola crop. Massive just massive.
Prices dropping like a stone here now mostly due to lack of shipping slots and boats booked.
Appears that everything accounted and accumulated to meet shipping demands and there's still a shitload un harvested.
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Dec 2, 2022 | 10:26
62
Canola markets are strong and well supported, as per futures and Stats Can ( if you trust them).
There is exceptional risk for all crops in Western Canada ,
Exceptionally dry, snow pack south of Saskatoon means nothing, market must price in the risk, and everyone must wait till May before forecasting record yields, in those dry areas no sane farmer will fertilize for a bumper crop, those acres will recieve fertilizer for a average crop at best and likely 25% below that number.
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Dec 2, 2022 | 11:10
63
Bipolar markets.
Today, even though soy oil is still down, soybeans are up.
Canola is up more that it went down yesterday. Was the stats can number lower than the market expected?
Or did the market figure out that the FDA news was probably not bearish for canola going forward?
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Dec 2, 2022 | 11:24
64
 Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5
Bipolar markets.
Today, even though soy oil is still down, soybeans are up.
Canola is up more that it went down yesterday. Was the stats can number lower than the market expected?
Or did the market figure out that the FDA news was probably not bearish for canola going forward?
Whatever it is, it is making my head hurt!
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Dec 2, 2022 | 12:47
65
Up $40 per tonne now today, while everything else is in the red. Including soy oil.
So the crop really wasn't as big as estimated. And it took until now for the market to believe it?
I thought Larry assured us that those in the know could estimate the crop size by satellite long before anyone on the ground could figure it out. So this should have been all priced in already. So is stats can wrong, or was the market wrong?
Meanwhile, crush margins have been crazy high, as farmer selling pressure kept a lid on the market, probably because we all believed the numbers?
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Dec 2, 2022 | 12:54
66
And now wait for $25 just to have it plummet again lmao.
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Dec 2, 2022 | 13:02
67
Futures rise $32/ton and ADM increases basis +$3 to producer….things that make you go hmmmm🤔
Me thinks a strong Friday finish like that coupled with a better basis to farmer= good things to come in the weeks ahead.
Last edited by flea beetle; Dec 2, 2022 at 13:06.
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Dec 2, 2022 | 13:04
68
Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5
Bipolar markets.
Today, even though soy oil is still down, soybeans are up.
Canola is up more that it went down yesterday. Was the stats can number lower than the market expected?
Or did the market figure out that the FDA news was probably not bearish for canola going forward?
EU down 18 euro
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Dec 2, 2022 | 13:04
69
Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5
I thought Larry assured us that those in the know could estimate the crop size by satellite long before anyone on the ground could figure it out.
Can you find that quote, Chuck?
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Dec 2, 2022 | 13:05
70
Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5
Up $40 per tonne now today, while everything else is in the red. Including soy oil.
So the crop really wasn't as big as estimated. And it took until now for the market to believe it?
I thought Larry assured us that those in the know could estimate the crop size by satellite long before anyone on the ground could figure it out. So this should have been all priced in already. So is stats can wrong, or was the market wrong?
Meanwhile, crush margins have been crazy high, as farmer selling pressure kept a lid on the market, probably because we all believed the numbers?
What information can you trust?
I trust the price.
And my dog.
I trust the price and my dog.
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Dec 2, 2022 | 13:12
71
Originally Posted by LWeber
Can you find that quote, Chuck?
Sorry for putting words in your mouth. That is definitely a Chuck move.
I just reread the thread, and that isn't exactly what you were saying:
https://www.agriville.com/threads/44...ight=satellite
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Dec 2, 2022 | 13:14
72
Originally Posted by Landdownunder
Aint no ifs or buts deadset australia IS going to have record canola crop. Massive just massive.
Prices dropping like a stone here now mostly due to lack of shipping slots and boats booked.
Appears that everything accounted and accumulated to meet shipping demands and there's still a shitload un harvested.
I assume that in the areas that had too much rain, the canola wouldn't be affected? Or will it sprout in the pod if conditions are warm and wet?
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Dec 2, 2022 | 13:38
74
Originally Posted by wheatking16
What information can you trust?
I trust the price.
And my dog.
I trust the price and my dog.
All information sourced from Cargill, Viterra, North West Terminal, CMI Terminal, Louis Dreyfus, Price and Data Quotes and Stat Publishing.
Unless you have a +35 year dataset; You have placed your trust in everyone listed above.
https://applications.saskatchewan.ca/Default.aspx?DN=6dd2ea91-22e6-4095-9d2a-67ef8c822897&l=English
PraireCharts has the same gaps in some charts - how is that possible?
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Dec 2, 2022 | 14:57
75
Stats Canada Canola production 18.2mmt…
Blessings and Salutations
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Dec 2, 2022 | 15:11
76
Surprise, surprise, the crop is smaller than earlier estimates. What else is new? Seems this happens every year. Canola crop was merely average if anyone looked in the field. It was so dry here in the spring that emergence was very patchy in many fields. When harvest is very dry canola is a light as a feather so if it is at 4-6% moisture you have less than you think in the bins. Last year I had to resubmit my crop insurance after the canola was hauled as the fall bin estimate proved too high. I was hoping the adjuster was correct. Anyways would be nice if the canola council would stop helping the buyers with BS estimates every year. What drives me nuts is all the inputs ads that try to convince you the other guys yield was that good.
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Dec 2, 2022 | 16:05
77
Over 2mmt less production…. In western Canada….
Over 1.5$ Billion cut from grain farmers income….
Now that is quite a one day hair cut…for our communities and family farms.
Deflation… the dry soil going into winter… risk of 2023 drought… below average yield in western Canada… just increased substantially. Our farm has much worse (50%) subsoil moisture than Dec 2021.
With zero rain since August 1… 3/10’s in October was barely enough to wet down 1.5”…this has to be decades since we have been this short of subsoil reserves.
Yet…We are blessed to have the 2022 grain crops we got…
Cheers
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Dec 2, 2022 | 17:06
78
Originally Posted by flea beetle
Futures rise $32/ton and ADM increases basis +$3 to producer….things that make you go hmmmm🤔
Me thinks a strong Friday finish like that coupled with a better basis to farmer= good things to come in the weeks ahead.
Hope you’re right
I’m still gonna take some $20 if it comes !
I hate to say it in this instance but stats can is a long gone out of touch leftover like chucks CWB
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Dec 2, 2022 | 18:03
79
Originally Posted by caseih
Hope you’re right
I’m still gonna take some $20 if it comes !
I hate to say it in this instance but stats can is a long gone out of touch leftover like chucks CWB
Not often futures and basis rise at the same time.
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Dec 2, 2022 | 18:41
80
Originally Posted by flea beetle
Not often futures and basis rise at the same time.
ADM will really push to fill the book and then back out.
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Dec 5, 2022 | 08:16
81
Canola moving in the right direction.
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Dec 5, 2022 | 11:13
82
Canola doing it’s own thing this morning, soyoil been down hard in the last week. Is there some news we don’t know about because these prices are not inline with soyoil or soybeans. Only news lately is statscan lowering canola production.
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Dec 5, 2022 | 15:23
83
Originally Posted by Sodbuster
Canola doing it’s own thing this morning, soyoil been down hard in the last week. Is there some news we don’t know about because these prices are not inline with soyoil or soybeans. Only news lately is statscan lowering canola production.
The EPA proposal was favourable for Canola, disappointing for soybeans.
Crush margins are still $200 per tonne on Canola, so oil can continue to drop, and canola can continue to go up, and still remain profitable. Unless of course, we continue to sell and let them keep the insanely high margins( I admit, I am guilty right now). That is down from over $300 a week ago.
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Dec 14, 2022 | 07:58
84
Originally Posted by wheatking16
I will reassess at that level but anticipate the price to slow down or reverse at the 850-860 range.
Constantly reassessing.
We got our slowdown as Canola has spent the past 8 days attempting to break above 860.
A move is likely to happen shortly.
The question is, Which direction?
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Dec 14, 2022 | 10:20
85
Viterra has a special on canola so historic specials seem to signal a rise in futures.
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Dec 14, 2022 | 11:03
86
20 trucks lined up at RP yesterday.
Buying canola/,fd bly..
Lots has been priced..sure better than 30 below hauling..
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Dec 14, 2022 | 11:54
87
Originally Posted by Partners
20 trucks lined up at RP yesterday.
Buying canola/,fd bly..
Lots has been priced..sure better than 30 below hauling..
We hauled out a bunch last week , not fun . Hard on augers and this ole body
Cleaning wheat this week , hauling a few peas , much nicer, at least tolerable
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Dec 19, 2022 | 11:36
88
Canola taking losses today
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Dec 19, 2022 | 12:58
89
And that is part of the market psychology, not alway fundamentals or charting.
If farmers are not selling right now, they the buyers will increase or decrease the bid ( basis) for a lot of reasons.
If the crushers are full, enough canola sitting in grain terminals inland and at port then expect price decreases.
It is cold out so farmers dont want to venture out much except to feed the livestock, and stock up on the liquors.
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Dec 19, 2022 | 14:15
90
Christmas markets, lots of traders get out of their positions and reevaluate after jan1st.
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