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Nov 23, 2022 | 14:26
31
 Originally Posted by Partners
Lock the bins?
Maybe should have emptied them at $ 20.50..?
Moved half of the canola off the combine this fall.
$19 and change is an automatic sell in my world.
I am pretty sure it can get there again by spring but $25 is probably gone for good.
Mean reversion is a much more powerful force than supply demand.
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Nov 23, 2022 | 17:31
32
Originally Posted by jazz
Mean reversion is a much more powerful force than supply demand.
the broken red line is trend...
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Nov 23, 2022 | 17:50
33
Hope your not looking at $400 Canola down the road might as well buy some crypto stock and get it overwith.
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Nov 23, 2022 | 19:57
34
Originally Posted by jazz
Moved half of the canola off the combine this fall.
$19 and change is an automatic sell in my world.
I am pretty sure it can get there again by spring but $25 is probably gone for good.
Mean reversion is a much more powerful force than supply demand.
Dumped mine after harvest 19.40 no regrets, survival trumps greed here, hauling barely for 7.82, never made so much money.
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Nov 25, 2022 | 00:06
35
Poke me in the eye with a blunt stick that’s high.
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Nov 25, 2022 | 00:15
36
High and dry!!!! Hope they will pay for the extra oil!
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Nov 25, 2022 | 00:27
37
Originally Posted by Landdownunder
Poke me in the eye with a blunt stick that’s high.
3.9% moisture. What is considered officially dry in Australia? Is the weight adjusted up to dry, or it is what it is?
I'm assuming you've never had the pleasure of harvesting and storing canola with moisture in the high teens?
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Nov 25, 2022 | 04:06
38
use base price of $1000 per tonne
1.5% of base price per 1% increase in oil over 42%
dry yeah I guess yesterday just over the limit 8.2% but got blended rejection at 8.5% but officially its 8
edit this year no cap on high side or low side of protien
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Nov 25, 2022 | 04:10
39
looks like we have decent run weather wise looks great short and medium term a great 4 week outlook
even 36c one day next week
perfect for guys like me one combine almost 7000 acres tis what it is
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Nov 25, 2022 | 09:32
40
Originally Posted by Landdownunder
looks like we have decent run weather wise looks great short and medium term a great 4 week outlook
even 36c one day next week
perfect for guys like me one combine almost 7000 acres tis what it is
How many hours do you runthat combine a year for that many acres you would need 3 or 4 big savings in comparison goodluck
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Nov 25, 2022 | 10:59
41
Originally Posted by Landdownunder
looks like we have decent run weather wise looks great short and medium term a great 4 week outlook
even 36c one day next week
perfect for guys like me one combine almost 7000 acres tis what it is
I just can't wrap my mind around the logistics of that. I know it's a completely different climate, and you don't have the threat of snow at any moment ending your harvest season. But harvest must stretch out for months?
Are you able to stagger your seeding
dates and varieties and crops enough that everything doesn't come mature at the same time? Wheat is somewhat forgiving if you don't harvest it the day it is ready, but with the varieties of barley we have, the heads will start falling off, the straw will break down starting about the same time as it is dry enough to harvest. Canola will shatter or pod to drop, even the best shattered resistant varieties have their limits when it gets dry enough. And that is at the very moderate temperatures and humidity levels that we get.
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Nov 25, 2022 | 12:20
42
the days you cut 300 plus acres speeds things up.
some guys I know bit further up cut 18000 with two 50 ft harvesters.
normally start first week nov like to finish by xmas
not uncommon rule of thumb used to be 100 acres per foot of cut 40 ft = 4000 acres but capacity improved so much.
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Nov 25, 2022 | 12:22
43
ps I am by no means a big farmer definitely not the best.
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Nov 29, 2022 | 08:37
44
Canola rebounding a bit this morning.
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Nov 29, 2022 | 08:44
45
Originally Posted by Goodtime
Canola rebounding a bit this morning.
glad to see that as i dont have any of this years conola sold so far !
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Nov 29, 2022 | 09:45
46
Originally Posted by cropgrower
glad to see that as i dont have any of this years conola sold so far !
Yeah, my guts got twisted with this drop off as well. Just warmed up to the idea to sell a bit, and put a target in. Market tanked the next day🤣.
Usually Christmas doldrums this time of year. Hopefully rally into the new year.
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Nov 29, 2022 | 10:20
47
would like to know what has changed to make the big gain today , up around 25$ ton now
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Nov 29, 2022 | 10:53
48
Originally Posted by cropgrower
would like to know what has changed to make the big gain today , up around 25$ ton now
I haven't looked at the news, but we were looking for a bounce today due to the confluence of the
1. 61.8% retracement
2. previous supply in July and August
3. trends often become exhausted after nine days
Look for a reaction in the 850-860 range.
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Nov 29, 2022 | 11:03
49
Originally Posted by wheatking16
I haven't looked at the news, but we were looking for a bounce today due to the confluence of the
1. 61.8% retracement
2. previous supply in July and August
3. trends often become exhausted after nine days
Look for a reaction in the 850-860 range.
Good info 👍
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Nov 29, 2022 | 11:15
50
Originally Posted by wheatking16
I haven't looked at the news, but we were looking for a bounce today due to the confluence of the
1. 61.8% retracement
2. previous supply in July and August
3. trends often become exhausted after nine days
Look for a reaction in the 850-860 range.
Reaction up? Or reaction down?
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Nov 29, 2022 | 11:49
51
Originally Posted by flea beetle
Reaction up? Or reaction down?
I will reassess at that level but anticipate the price to slow down or reverse at the 850-860 range.
Constantly reassessing.
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Nov 29, 2022 | 12:44
52
many thanks , from a dazed and confused marketer!
every little bit helps
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Nov 29, 2022 | 18:45
53
Follow through buying OR OR profit taking selling! same old same old.
Can a dead cat keep bouncing?
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Nov 29, 2022 | 19:29
54
Stats can Friday.
If you believe them?
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Dec 1, 2022 | 11:02
55
Todays price action is supposedly about EPA and renewable fuels vs electric.
But I also saw this: Not sure about the love part though?
In the new #EPA proposal, #Canola is getting the love the #Soybeans are lacking...
Canola is now treated like a premium biofuel, on par with #SoyOil
The negative reaction in beans imo is likely a result of this new dynamic pricing in.
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Dec 1, 2022 | 12:29
56
Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5
Todays price action is supposedly about EPA and renewable fuels vs electric.
But I also saw this: Not sure about the love part though?
In the new #EPA proposal, #Canola is getting the love the #Soybeans are lacking...
Canola is now treated like a premium biofuel, on par with #SoyOil
The negative reaction in beans imo is likely a result of this new dynamic pricing in.
Argentine sold 31 million bushel of soybeans. They got favourable currency conversion
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Dec 1, 2022 | 13:29
57
Another day of crash and burn just when it looked like hope.
Slowly ratcheting downward.
Last edited by Partners; Dec 1, 2022 at 13:47.
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Dec 1, 2022 | 14:56
58
Black swan event… biodiesel reduction in fuel reducing demand… this morning…
Could be an over reaction considering all the jet fuel refinery projects for low carbon fuel biofuel coming on stream… however in the short term caused soybean oil to crater this morning.
Soybeans were up till this hit the news wires.
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Dec 1, 2022 | 19:22
59
https://www.agweb.com/news/policy/politics/renewable-fuels-big-week-epas-rfs-proposal-and-year-round-e15-legislation?fbclid=IwAR0VC1T0fBhQIrujE2nCdxIgN2MbG Wx8-Vo1a1PgdlVO-ExevKoSXECz4eM&mibextid=Zxz2cZ
Last edited by TASFarms; Dec 1, 2022 at 19:41.
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Dec 1, 2022 | 22:05
60
Evidently todays news was actually good news for not only canola, but also canola oil from Canada:
Canola is another step closer to seeing major new demand from producers of advanced biofuels, as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has published its final rule approving the use of canola oil for renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and other advanced biofuels under the Renewable Fuel Standard (or RFS.)
“We thank the EPA for completing the final rule and are pleased to see that canola oil now has the pathway to help contribute to reducing GHG emissions from transportation fuels in the U.S.,” says Jim Everson, president of the Canola Council of Canada (CCC), in a statement issued December 1.
Compared to older biofuels, such as biodiesel, the chemistry of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel is much closer to the fossil fuels they’re meant to replace, making them easier to use as a replacement in combustion engines. Demand for these advanced fuels is increasing as governments implement lower carbon fuel standards.
The CCC notes the EPA found canola-based fuels offer significantly lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions than fossil-based fuels — up to 90 per cent lower when compared with traditional diesel.
The council worked together with the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association (COPA) in supporting the U.S. Canola Association’s petition to the EPA, originally filed in 2020, to allow canola oil as a feedstock for making advanced biofuels.
The fact the U.S. has recognized canola oil, not just seed, as a feedstock is also significant for Canada’s canola industry, as it allows for processing to happen in Canada.
COPA has previously estimated 6.5 million tonnes of U.S. and Canadian canola could go toward North American biodiesel and renewable diesel production by 2030, compared to current demand of around 1.8 million tonnes.
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