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Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 14, 2022 | 14:00 1 "Lucked" out on weekend and yesterday only scored 41mm plenty guys 80 plus

Parts of NSW some farms at town called Forbes had 154mm in 10 hours disaster there.

Been saying for quite a while harvest will start in 2 days.....

You guessed it another round on friday probably just when its drying out.

But had ok drying wind yesterday and breeze this morning.

Remember a few back said some warm weather and bring it on tis a distant memory....

Top quality wheat lets callout number 1 wheat high protein $475 per tonne on farm

Guys with hay on the ground gonna leave it

One well known climatologist made a fortune out of his predictions said one major river the darling will never flow again let alone flood. Now year 3 of flowing and is over 10kms wide in places and floodplain may exceed 30 kms in patches and they all preached drought for oz in 22 Reply With Quote

  • Nov 14, 2022 | 14:14 2 Mallee I’m of the opinion that anyone who claims to know the weather with great certainty more than a couple weeks out is delusional. Hopefully you can get back to more “normal-ish” weather for you. Winter arrived hard and fast here with no signs of leaving til at least April…………… that’s my prediction😉

    Fingers crossed for everyone down under🤞 Reply With Quote

  • Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 14, 2022 | 15:50 3 went storm chasing on Saturday about 250 kms north of me tornadoes were suggested. This bad boy did try to drop a funnel but dint happen and cell ever so slightly rotating

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  • Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 14, 2022 | 15:57 4 Basis is really starting to improve daily here for wheat and barley and faba beans.

    Canola lagging lentils lagging.

    Really getting the knack of this photography game Reply With Quote

  • Nov 14, 2022 | 16:02 5
    Quote Originally Posted by Landdownunder View Post
    Basis is really starting to improve daily here for wheat and barley and faba beans.

    Canola lagging lentils lagging.

    Really getting the knack of this photography game
    What did you buy?
    Nikon or Canon? Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 15, 2022 | 03:08 6
    Quote Originally Posted by LWeber View Post
    What did you buy?
    Nikon or Canon?
    Canon R6.

    The storm chasing community are dead set straight laces or crazy fookers nothing in between or well until I came along....... Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 15, 2022 | 03:10 7 A few buyers today ceased to buy via multi grade contracts fixed grade only.

    For obvious reasons. Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 15, 2022 | 04:12 8 Another blown out a little just out the back paddock didn't have to travel far for this one

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  • Austranada's Avatar Nov 15, 2022 | 04:59 9 That's a beauty Reply With Quote
    Nov 15, 2022 | 05:30 10
    Quote Originally Posted by Landdownunder View Post
    "Lucked" out on weekend and yesterday only scored 41mm plenty guys 80 plus

    Parts of NSW some farms at town called Forbes had 154mm in 10 hours disaster there.

    Been saying for quite a while harvest will start in 2 days.....

    You guessed it another round on friday probably just when its drying out.

    But had ok drying wind yesterday and breeze this morning.

    Remember a few back said some warm weather and bring it on tis a distant memory....

    Top quality wheat lets callout number 1 wheat high protein $475 per tonne on farm

    Guys with hay on the ground gonna leave it

    One well known climatologist made a fortune out of his predictions said one major river the darling will never flow again let alone flood. Now year 3 of flowing and is over 10kms wide in places and floodplain may exceed 30 kms in patches and they all preached drought for oz in 22
    "Those who endure to the end... shall be saved.!"

    Been there, read the book, got the tea shirt...wow... no fun at all!

    When nature gets unhinged... things get really crazy... and climate change isn't the cause... the further humanity gets unhinged...

    Prayers for blessings... Reply With Quote
    Nov 15, 2022 | 05:55 11

    Reading Matthew 24 is revealing

    Blessings and Salutations Reply With Quote
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  • Nov 15, 2022 | 21:51 12
    Quote Originally Posted by Landdownunder View Post
    Another blown out a little just out the back paddock didn't have to travel far for this one

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    Mallee……….. if this farming thing doesn’t pan out for you there’s an obvious backup plan that is as clear as your pictures are😉

    Very cool😎 Reply With Quote

  • Nov 15, 2022 | 23:04 13 No kidding! Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 16, 2022 | 05:07 14 Lucky last won't bore you anymore.
    See the tiny funnel a rarity in oz

    All hell broke loose about 5 minutes after this thought id better get the heck out of here

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  • Nov 16, 2022 | 18:18 15
    Quote Originally Posted by Landdownunder View Post
    Lucky last won't bore you anymore.
    See the tiny funnel a rarity in oz

    All hell broke loose about 5 minutes after this thought id better get the heck out of here

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    Is there anything left to harvest? Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 17, 2022 | 03:42 16 Finally got harvesting this arvo.....well did 8 tonne best we could find was 16.5% moisture

    Wait goes on.

    13.5% is delivery standard but years like this dynamic binning comes into place at elevators

    Not sure you have that.

    If hypothetically say 100 semi trailers drop barley in at 12% you come along with 13.9% your one load aint gonna upset the average called dynamic binning here do it with protein and other down grades to get it up to spec.

    But say 100 semi trailers delivered 13.3% moisture your 13.9% would get rejected hope that makes sense.

    All about stacked elevator averages you can check anytime of the day and check yours or other elevators

    Check portions grades how many tonnes delivered of each, oil content in canola, percentage of malt versus feed etc etc

    You guys miles ahead of us hicks in Oz when it comes to delivery standards and transparency. Reply With Quote
    Nov 17, 2022 | 08:19 17 nope , i would say youre way ahead
    here you can deliver 100 loads of way under dry , then one tough and they will dock you shrink , maybe drying too on the tough one ,(computer does it automatically) is the explanation , not all but lots do Reply With Quote
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    LEP

  • Nov 17, 2022 | 08:34 18
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    nope , i would say youre way ahead
    here you can deliver 100 loads of way under dry , then one tough and they will dock you shrink , maybe drying too on the tough one ,(computer does it automatically) is the explanation , not all but lots do
    I've had the opposite experience. Local elevators will paper blend moisture and grade within a contract.
    And as you get farther from harvest, and they have lots of dry grain coming in, they will usually accept very high moisture grain with the only deduction being shrinking the weight back down to dry. Which is a much better deal then delivering overly dry grain. I've sold lots of 13 + % moisture canola later in the year. Never been charged for drying. Reply With Quote
    Nov 17, 2022 | 08:40 19
    Quote Originally Posted by Landdownunder View Post
    Finally got harvesting this arvo.....well did 8 tonne best we could find was 16.5% moisture

    Wait goes on.

    13.5% is delivery standard but years like this dynamic binning comes into place at elevators

    Not sure you have that.

    If hypothetically say 100 semi trailers drop barley in at 12% you come along with 13.9% your one load aint gonna upset the average called dynamic binning here do it with protein and other down grades to get it up to spec.

    But say 100 semi trailers delivered 13.3% moisture your 13.9% would get rejected hope that makes sense.

    All about stacked elevator averages you can check anytime of the day and check yours or other elevators

    Check portions grades how many tonnes delivered of each, oil content in canola, percentage of malt versus feed etc etc

    You guys miles ahead of us hicks in Oz when it comes to delivery standards and transparency.

    My sister who lives in Canberra has commented on how wonderfully green everything is right now. She has lived there about 20 years I believe. Greenest she has ever seen it I believe she said. Am I correct that you would be west of Canberra?

    Just curious how harvest in Australia in general is going in your opinion. Seems to be lots of rain and flooding eastern Australia. Is there more wheat produced in Eastern or Western Australia?
    Last edited by Hamloc; Nov 17, 2022 at 08:43.
    Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Nov 17, 2022 | 11:43 20 Sounds like the Oz system almost too transparent? Reply With Quote
    Nov 17, 2022 | 12:16 21 Mallee and AB5 have it better than what typically happens around here. Protein , if you have it it’s not worth much if you don’t , deductions. Just a bit off grade and could easily be blended up ? That’s for the line company, thank you. Tough or damp we’ll blending it off is for the line company as well. You will be charged steep rates for drying. Don’t get me started about malt barley. Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Nov 17, 2022 | 13:05 22 Hopefully I can clarify.
    Although I want export sales and volumes reported, I don't want prices and sellers identified.
    I don't want what's in store at my local terminal public knowledge. Their ability to improve movement I feel would be hampered. They blend at coast with their other inland terminals and often have an advantage I participate in.
    I want the relationship I have built with the local terminal to continue and not be minimized by daily published blending numbers.
    I don't want to build $500k in infrastructure to deal with harvest volumes of inventory I've already priced and for which cash flow is necessary.
    They already pay large area farmers to over dry as well as blend downstream.
    Protein payments over a certain amount, have for the most part become a thing of the past.
    Of course do your own diligence.
    Oz has different dynamics. Some of which not applicable here.
    Our industry is still struggling to jump ahead a century in a single leap. Don't trip it up with some type of equalization thinking.
    I do recognize however my location is fortuitous.
    I've been doing this since the 80s and I love the future.

    As an ex malt grower. I simply feel it is for both buyer and seller, an unhedgeable specialty crop that is clearly over planted. Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 17, 2022 | 13:08 23
    Quote Originally Posted by Hamloc View Post
    My sister who lives in Canberra has commented on how wonderfully green everything is right now. She has lived there about 20 years I believe. Greenest she has ever seen it I believe she said. Am I correct that you would be west of Canberra?

    Just curious how harvest in Australia in general is going in your opinion. Seems to be lots of rain and flooding eastern Australia. Is there more wheat produced in Eastern or Western Australia?
    Snails pace the progress of harvest generally.

    But West Aust be making good headway I would think.

    West Aust is becoming power in terms of production a big state.

    They have had some weather issues but reality probably 5% of crop area or under that still a very very large crop over there Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 17, 2022 | 13:29 24 Buyers like to know what's in bulk handling system , farmers like to know what's in bulk handling system, cloak and dagger stuff , keeping tonnes yields etc hidden from buyers is 1990s stuff.

    They have ability to estimate yields as good as farmers with all varying technologies.

    Some farmers push back "buyer don't need to know how much grains out there lets keep em in the dark will drive prices up" its just BS kindergarten thinking.

    They also know how much unsold grain in elevator system, but not who owns it unless you agree to discloser agreement. Most do.

    back when single desk collapsed 20 yrs ago, farm organisations politicians buyers farmers, basically said get your head out of the sand the monopsony of grain selling in oz is finished like it or lump it. Quit with all save the AWB and single desk foundation etc etc we've got 18 months to sort a system that's good for farmers buyer and endusers before govt signs of on it. If govt don't like it back to drawing board.

    Not perfect system but nothing ever is and better than alternative. Reply With Quote

  • Nov 17, 2022 | 17:51 25 It will be disastrous once expanded cush capacity is in place.

    Export margins for the exporters will be twice what they are now. And the crush margins today for the crushers will be maintained for years - because they can. Reply With Quote
    Nov 17, 2022 | 18:53 26 For example,
    Potash
    Urea
    Etc Reply With Quote
    blackpowder's Avatar Nov 17, 2022 | 19:58 27
    Quote Originally Posted by Rareearth View Post
    It will be disastrous once expanded cush capacity is in place.

    Export margins for the exporters will be twice what they are now. And the crush margins today for the crushers will be maintained for years - because they can.
    Explain increased demand as detrimental please. Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 18, 2022 | 14:14 28 just dandy another 4 mm of rain.

    will keep this thread going till we start in earnest Reply With Quote
    Nov 18, 2022 | 19:37 29 good luck mallee , hope it turns for you Reply With Quote

  • Landdownunder's Avatar Nov 19, 2022 | 03:44 30 make that 9 Reply With Quote