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Sep 15, 2022 | 06:21
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Well, another week has gone by, and still no killing frost. Most crops have reached the time of year when they are out of harm's way. Ok if you seeded July 1st it's still too early for a frost but most are hitting the end of the cycle.
We have got to 1/3 done and it's been a very nice time. Warm days are windy and a nice crop is always fun to harvest.
Sask will move to 50% or better but the east side is 30%.
If you are done harvesting in record time did you really have anything really to harvest? Again the East side is the powerhouse of growing grain in Sask, some years we lose out but not very often. Still amazes me how land is worth double on the west side.
I do feel bad for anyone with a poor crop and drought for year 4. The weather will change and all that fert in the ground will pay off in spades when it does rain again.
For the province, the drought is back as a topic for the coffee row. It is dry and getting dryer and that isn't a good thing going into winter without any fall moisture. The long-term weather forecast shows a warmer fall and min Rain. Lots need a recharge and a big recharge. Snow doesn't make grain. It gives you a start that's it.
Ok so here is the crop report.
HRS harvest is done in some areas and about mid-way in our side of the province. Yields are all over the map. Some are in the 40s or 50s for the low end and the average in our area is 60 to 75 range with a few hitting the magic 100. Variety is also interesting a promising wheat from a few years ago has a constant 50 BPA yield. The old faithful Brandon is up there but the new kinds of wheat are the ones pushing the top yields. One thing for future reference Midge tolerant wheat is maybe a consideration for future picks because without lorsban in Canada it could be an issue for some years. Slough grass causes or helps with Ergot so if you spray end to end and your low areas that flood are black in the fall you probably have min Ergot. It is a big problem in our area this year. Some grading feed due to high numbers of ergot.
Durum is also getting ready to be harvested or is started in our area. Some Fuz damage but those who sprayed seem to be doing ok. Not top grade but still a crop that can fit. Yields are lower than spring wheat.
Barley the early harvested crop had a strong year but just hit 100 or less. The later looked good lodged and seemed to not fill as well as I thought it could. Lots of 100s but higher not many. No rain so malt could be possible on a lot. Nice plump kernels.
Peas the average if everything worked and disease wasn't an issue or excess water plus 8 years between it could hit 60 plus. If anything goes wrong with peas its 25 and up.
Lentils' I will say it again they don't like water and water doesn't like lentil fields. Some did ok but a lot are complaining.
Flax is getting close and the color change is happening. No one has swath or sprayed.
Canary seed is starting to get harvested haven't got any details of yield. some fields were a 10 out of 10.
Oats believe it or not are getting harvested. Green stubble after but dry grain. It's an interesting year. Some fields look like it was silaged but its harvested. Yields haven't had any reports yet.
Canola is being sprayed still to shut down and as usual, the Roundup is working very slowly. Funny last year in a drought a week and it was done this year two and you still look cross-eyed at it. Few swathing but the wind is starting to pull at the swaths. I love how now everyone seems to swath on an angle to the North east. Gee in fall our winds are always out of that direction. It works you might only lose your outside few swaths. Yields I am hearing from the west side and central are it could have been a 60 in some areas and it's not hitting those numbers. Also did get reports of crops not making over 10 and 25 in some cases. I am going to reassess my yield numbers again after we get going in our area and I get northern and eastern yield data. I think lots will be 45 to 58. But we all have some that are going to be lower. even on the east side. I think on the hot days in July we even had pod aborting happening in our area with mud.
The cowboys are moving cattle out of different pastures and hauling bales. No second cuts are happening even if they could be. Pastures are starting to shut down.
This year with expenses you need $20 for Canola $15 for wheat $7 for barley and $14 for peas to do really exceptionally well with most yields. Lose out on yield or grade or price and it's not that big of a money year.
Fall spraying could be interesting after harvesting a crop as most plants are done for the year and you won't be killing much without rain.
Those still going good luck, stay safe and remember it's only a crop that they are already trying oh so hard to take.
One more dumb F U C K says harvest pressure is driving crop prices lower can go to HELL, It's not 1928, some farms have larger storage than a New Concrete elevator on the farm.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 06:25
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Last edited by SASKFARMER; Sep 15, 2022 at 06:27.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 06:33
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Oh if you think the Federal Liberals aren't going to come after farmers I have some oceanfront property in Arizona for you.
Never trust a Liberal they don't know what the truth is anymore.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 06:53
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I can’t wait to finish harvest so I can start spending money on next yrs crop.
Get your inputs early boyzs for BIG savings, and take advantage of product while it lasts.
Shortages are a coming.
Maybe it’s time to for:
1 800 Call Monette
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Sep 15, 2022 | 06:54
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Upcoming Weather
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Sep 15, 2022 | 07:20
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We have a decent enough crop. The durum is running 65-70 with some areas reporting 90-100. Will see what the canola brings but it doesnt look as good as last yr.
But this has been far from an enjoyable year. I have farmed through every weather condition imaginable, sold crop for peanuts and lucked out on some nice prices fairly often. Enough to keep the lights on and the banker away.
But the amount of volatility this past year is stomach churning. No certainty of anything, parts, inputs, prices etc. Everything rising higher but our primary crops sinking double digits in the past 3 months. Bunch of guys running out of storage just saying fck it and haul it to the terminal isnt helping prices.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 07:26
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 Originally Posted by jazz
We have a decent enough crop. The durum is running 65-70 with some areas reporting 90-100. Will see what the canola brings but it doesnt look as good as last yr.
But this has been far from an enjoyable year. I have farmed through every weather condition imaginable, sold crop for peanuts and lucked out on some nice prices fairly often. Enough to keep the lights on and the banker away.
But the amount of volatility this past year is stomach churning. No certainty of anything, parts, inputs, prices etc. Everything rising higher but our primary crops sinking double digits in the past 3 months. Bunch of guys running out of storage just saying fck it and haul it to the terminal isnt helping prices.
Could you imagine $20 durum at 90 bu??
Now reality hits $10.50 at 20 bu
No wonder prices are brutal.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 07:49
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We are just over 90% done.
Barley yields on average were 85% of last year, would be close to average long term yields.
HRS wheat yield was on average similar to last year with as Saskfarmer mentioned elevated ergot levels.
Yellow peas were a disaster yielding just under 40% of last year.
My canola yields are up from last year about 10% which put them just above the mid 40’s per acre, certainly less than what we had hoped for. I had 4 varieties planted, my best yielding was L345, go figure.
Overall mother nature turned off the taps too soon and their was no soil reserve, crops just ran out of gas and of course more than one round of hail didn’t help either. Very damn dry, would certainly welcome rain!!
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Sep 15, 2022 | 07:56
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Originally Posted by SASKFARMER
One more dumb F U C K says harvest pressure is driving crop prices lower can go to HELL, It's not 1928, some farms have larger storage than a New Concrete elevator on the farm.
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Yes some farms have enough storage to store their entire crop. But do they also own railways and car fleets that are capable of moving the entire crop in September? Industry cant move it all off the combine no matter how much storage there is. Will always be more guys wanting to haul in Sept than January.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 08:02
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Trade says she a whopper of a crop, maybe should sell everything now before prices take a further nose dive.
Winter weather says brutal cold who wants to fire up equipment in Jan?
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Sep 15, 2022 | 08:09
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Even if most farms forward priced a small amount..
The trains are filling up.
Good yields with some locked in prices make for a great $$$$ to start with..
The rest can stay in the bins..after inputs are covered..
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Sep 15, 2022 | 08:14
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Originally Posted by Partners
Even if most farms forward priced a small amount..
The trains are filling up.
Good yields with some locked in prices make for a great $$$$ to start with..
The rest can stay in the bins..after inputs are covered..
Crops here won't cover the inputs.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 08:43
16
Rained here all day yesterday. Not lots, but enough to make dirt road impassable. High was 12. Just finished baling. That feeling of completing a task before a nice rain never gets old. Rain will help new hay and pastures recover. This area was weirdly dry.
September weather finally showed up.
A miracle happened this year in this area. For a mainly June seeded crop and to have it half harvested by now is amazing. Haven’t heard lots of yields yet. Variable is what I can say. From awesome to less than awesome and everything in between.
Good luck getting it done. Forecast is kind of iffy now. Lots of swathed cereals. I’ll never understand that I guess.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 08:44
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We had a short day yesterday, only managed 200 acres and at 8pm we were crawling at 1mph with all combined grunting time to quit. Cart auger decided to screw up yesterday also, flighting welds let loose from shaft so spent last night heating, cutting, a lot of sledge hammering and welding, but ready to put back in this morning. Looking like a small day today with the fog heavy this morning.  
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Sep 15, 2022 | 08:49
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I do like the one liner though …. “Crops here are decent enough 65-70 some up to 90-100”
No sure how interpret the “decent”
Oh well
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Sep 15, 2022 | 09:13
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Originally Posted by wiseguy
Farmboy you must be a liberal or a grain buyer !
Lol not sure which is a bigger insult.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 09:16
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Originally Posted by farmboy44
Yes some farms have enough storage to store their entire crop. But do they also own railways and car fleets that are capable of moving the entire crop in September? Industry cant move it all off the combine no matter how much storage there is. Will always be more guys wanting to haul in Sept than January.
It’s impossible to move the entire crop on Sept , no one saying or insinuating that here ever .
Probably could of last year though if they tried
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Sep 15, 2022 | 09:24
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" Farmboy you must be a liberal or a grain buyer ! "
Originally Posted by farmboy44
Lol not sure which is a bigger insult.
Coulda been worse,,, he could have called you "Media" or a journalist !
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Sep 15, 2022 | 10:57
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canola is taking a little longer to dry down here could be a problem later.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 11:36
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This time of year with days getting shorter quickly the swather will work 2-3x quicker than spraying …. Pod shatter or not , sometimes the swather still more effective
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Sep 15, 2022 | 12:18
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Originally Posted by furrowtickler
This time of year with days getting shorter quickly the swather will work 2-3x quicker than spraying …. Pod shatter or not , sometimes the swather still more effective
12 says after swather canola tested 5 with 1 green.
In the bin.. straight cut neighbors waiting..
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Sep 15, 2022 | 12:51
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Originally Posted by Partners
12 says after swather canola tested 5 with 1 green.
In the bin.. straight cut neighbors waiting..
Everything has its place and time
I would never “sell the swather”
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Sep 15, 2022 | 19:01
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Originally Posted by furrowtickler
Everything has its place and time
I would never “sell the swather”
That is why it was invented 100 yrs ago.
To speed up harvest,and get rid of the green shit that never seems to mature.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 19:07
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Spraying our 1st bly field today.
5 bushels of heads on the ground then 3 inches of rain.
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Sep 15, 2022 | 20:11
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"I can’t wait to finish harvest so I can start spending money on next yrs crop.
Get your inputs early boyzs for BIG savings, and take advantage of product while it lasts.
Shortages are a coming.
Maybe it’s time to for:
1 800 Call Monette"
By the looks of his lentil crops around here that number might "no longer be in service."
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Sep 15, 2022 | 20:26
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Wheat markets are still speculating on possible quality issues as harvest starts to wrap in some areas. It’s still a bit too soon to tell how widespread any actual damage might be, but the buzz is about fusarium and ergot. Globally, there are rumors that Russia will have logistical challenges with not being able to supply railcars for movement, and this could have an effect on China’s purchasing power out of North America. Despite talk of tight supply, prices maintain for another week. Bids range from $11.00/bu delivered into central SK this week, while feed wheat shows bids around $8.50-$9/bu depending on area and freight costs. Durum markets still have a low tone for the 4th quarter, but if quality issues come to fruition, we could see some value on milling quality in 2023
StatsCan reduced its Canadian canola production forecast to just shy of 19.1 MMT. A bounce back from last year, but by no means a bin buster with yields falling short of trend line yields. Couple that with lower carry in supplies from last year, and a forecasted recovery in global veg oil markets, Canadian supplies are likely to remain snug. Locally, harvest basis values have been attractive and perhaps indicative of longer-term tighter supplies. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.35-$17.75/bu FOB farm.
https://www.rayglen.com/rayglen-market-comments-september-14-2022/
Last edited by jazz; Sep 15, 2022 at 20:30.
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