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Canola 60 bushel swath!!!

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Sep 12, 2022 | 14:26 61
Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
Very little rain from about July 10 to 30th give or take a day with near zero sub soil drastically reduced yields
Exactly right furrow. If we could have got an inch in that period of time it would have changed the outcome significantly. 5-6 degrees less heat at that time would have let a few more flowers pollinate aswell. Canola likes the 25 degrees with decent moisture not dry and 35 Reply With Quote
Sep 12, 2022 | 14:34 62 what would neil say ?? Reply With Quote
ALBERTAFARMER4's Avatar Sep 14, 2022 | 18:51 63 My canola looked like 12bu/ac but only did 9bu/ac. Reply With Quote

  • Sep 15, 2022 | 08:35 64
    Quote Originally Posted by ALBERTAFARMER4 View Post
    My canola looked like 12bu/ac but only did 9bu/ac.
    I thought you farm with irrigation? Or is this just the dryland so far? Reply With Quote
    ALBERTAFARMER4's Avatar Sep 15, 2022 | 12:22 65
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    I thought you farm with irrigation? Or is this just the dryland so far?
    All canola was on dryland this year. Sat in gun powder for 3-4 weeks after seeding with cold nights. Finally got a decent shot of rain in the middle of June (first big rain in a year and a half). Crop actually looked good during flower but then the heat came and melted all the flowers. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2022 | 12:26 66
    Quote Originally Posted by ALBERTAFARMER4 View Post
    All canola was on dryland this year. Sat in gun powder for 3-4 weeks after seeding with cold nights. Finally got a decent shot of rain in the middle of June (first big rain in a year and a half). Crop actually looked good during flower but then the heat came and melted all the flowers.
    Same situation all through western Sask in general Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2022 | 12:46 67 Weird year here. Canola in the hills outyielded the level ground. Barley similar as well. Neighbour figures that downpour we got earlier on flooded it out some. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2022 | 14:40 68
    Quote Originally Posted by Partners View Post
    Started on canola.
    Looks 40 to 50.
    Going 30..
    August for those of us who missed that 1-2" of rain to finish off the canola crop... cost 5=10bu/ac... then 5% moisture drops the yield another 3bu/ac. no rain in August - September is unusual... now 45days...

    Amazing the early wheat did as well as it did... peas 70% of normal... canola 85-90% by the looks of what we have harvested, barley is done...90%. 1.5-2" in July with August 1/2" ... should be no surprise... between hail storms and poor rain coverage... SK will rally have to have a whale of a canola crop to make up for our shortage here in AB...

    Fun times... safe harvesting... Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2022 | 15:17 69
    Quote Originally Posted by TOM4CWB View Post
    then 5% moisture drops the yield another 3bu/ac..
    Not my fault if the bin lids are open in the rain. Wink wink….. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2022 | 15:32 70
    Quote Originally Posted by TOM4CWB View Post
    canola 85-90% by the looks of what we have harvested,
    Canola 5 year average in AB is 38.4 bpa -with a 28.9 disaster in 2021/22.
    You're suggesting 32.6 to 34.5?
    STATSCAN used 41.7 yesterday... Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2022 | 15:37 71
    Quote Originally Posted by WiltonRanch View Post
    Weird year here. Canola in the hills outyielded the level ground. Barley similar as well. Neighbour figures that downpour we got earlier on flooded it out some.
    Around here, we would call that normal, not weird. The most valuable asset around here is a hill. Even last year with no rain all summer, in most cases the hills still did better than the lower ground. It only seems to take one rain event to cut potential of the lower ground. Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2022 | 15:39 72
    Quote Originally Posted by Herc View Post
    Not my fault if the bin lids are open in the rain. Wink wink…..
    I tried leaving the tarps open on the truck boxes full of over dry canola in the rain once. All the moisture went right to the bottom made up wet mess stuck to the boxes and I don't think I gained any moisture in the rest of it. But it's not technically adding water though correct? Reply With Quote
    Sep 15, 2022 | 18:06 73 The good ………maybe 40bu?


    The bad……….maybe 20bu?


    The ugly………maybe 10bu?


    No worries of looking like a 60bu swath here. I’ll be happy with half of normal assuming we don’t get anymore hail. Thank goodness for crop insurance again this year. It looked like a disaster at seeding and mid June looked pretty good after a few rains. After getting roasted and burned for the last two months it’s not pretty.

    Oh well it should run through the combine quick at least. Always a positive amongst the poo that gets thrown your way occasionally 🍀 Reply With Quote

  • Sep 16, 2022 | 11:20 74
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    I tried leaving the tarps open on the truck boxes full of over dry canola in the rain once. All the moisture went right to the bottom made up wet mess stuck to the boxes and I don't think I gained any moisture in the rest of it. But it's not technically adding water though correct?
    Morris posted this on Agriweek…


    The crop will likely shrink some more.:: nice to have a few showers now… bring the moisture up to more reasonable levels…

    Happy Canola harvesting! Reply With Quote
    Sep 16, 2022 | 12:14 75 Pretty easy answer
    Zero subsoil and lack of rain at a critical time for too long for 70% of the canola growing area demolished yield potential

    Peas absolutely no different
    Last edited by furrowtickler; Sep 16, 2022 at 12:21.
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  • Sep 16, 2022 | 12:18 76
    Quote Originally Posted by TOM4CWB View Post
    Morris posted this on Agriweek…


    The crop will likely shrink some more.:: nice to have a few showers now… bring the moisture up to more reasonable levels…

    Happy Canola harvesting!
    So which is fake news, this article, or Larry's confidence in the technology?
    I would have expected the opposite. Following a drought year, our crops generally seem to do much better than expected for the conditions.
    Here, the culprits are fairly easy too figure out. Over a month of sitting in saturated soils with cold conditions and rain every day and flea Beatles. Followed abruptly by much above average heat, and almost no more rain for the rest of the season. But I thought most other areas had better conditions. Reply With Quote
    Sep 16, 2022 | 13:39 77 Wind blown swaths and pod drop / shatter also taking bushels every single day now
    All of it so dry and brittle it’s crazy actually Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 16, 2022 | 13:41 78 Will be surprising if the final total is above 18 imo Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 16, 2022 | 13:58 79 First field managed to pull off a 60. L340PC, sprayed for flea beetles, sprayed for sclerotinia on very good land. Yields will keep dropping from there. Reply With Quote
    Sep 16, 2022 | 14:07 80 Just finished one at 34 bpa , right beside one we did that was 50 Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 17, 2022 | 08:12 81 See our friend Neil figures the crop will be under 19 million and says it could go lower. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 17, 2022 | 08:15 82 Surprisingly canola reseeded twice will make it. Yield uncertain. Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 3, 2022 | 10:39 83 Seems the market is starting to recognize that all the pods they counted from space, weren't all full, and that it's Oct and there are thousands on tonnes out there to bring in yet.

    73 some CAD, doesn't hurt either. Reply With Quote

  • Oct 3, 2022 | 11:38 84 Nov canola up nine of last 10 sessions.
    Best up trend for life of contract.

    DYOD Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 3, 2022 | 12:24 85
    Quote Originally Posted by beaverdam View Post
    Seems the market is starting to recognize that all the pods they counted from space, weren't all full, and that it's Oct and there are thousands on tonnes out there to bring in yet.

    73 some CAD, doesn't hurt either.
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    I spent the weekend in Furrow's district. From Murray Lake to Vawn to Edam to Paynton to Delmas.
    Here are SK AG's "boots on the ground" numbers for the past 5 years for canola.

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    SK AG has underestimated the final canola number by 7.05/bu an acre on average for the previous 4 Sept estimates; however, that's not going to be the biggest adjustment this year. The last time farmers were surveyed for acres was February and March and won't again until November. Trade estimates are from 800 to 1.1 million higher canola acres than the Feb/Mar survey based on seed and input sales. In the past acreage surveys from farmers were done in July and August. Now there are no secondary checks until December.

    We can debate production/acreage until December 02, when the final STATSCAN comes out.

    Sean Pratt's article in last week's Producer was missing the report card on past performance. NDVI modelling suggested 37.7 bpa for SK. SK AG was 34.

    I'll post the last 14 years data later this week - I have it but it needs to be updated for the last changes to production in 2020/21.

    There is only one year that STATSCAN's canola yield went down in the previous 14 from the September estimate to the December estimate, and that was during the wind swept anomaly in September 2012.

    To get to 18 MMT using STATSCAN acres, MB would have to be 38 bpa, SK 34 and AB 37.

    Matthew Struthers, crops extension specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture, is confident in the yield estimates compiled from 200 crop reporters scattered across the province. “We get our information from crop reporters, so we get it from people right on the ground,” he said. “They do a great job and I stand with the information we have in the report.” (PRODUCER.COM - Sept 29)

    Given the previous 4 years canola data, who would you bet on today?


    edit... added producer quote - added canola to last sentence.
    Last edited by LWeber; Oct 3, 2022 at 17:40.
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  • Oct 3, 2022 | 12:31 86 Great info , thanks Larry 👍 Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 3, 2022 | 13:18 87
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Great info , thanks Larry 👍
    Here are the record yields set for Canada and three main canola provinces via STATSCAN
    2022 is not final.

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    AB AG missed their record year by 3.1 bpa - 6.8%
    MB AG missed their record year by 4 bpa - 9.1%
    SK AG missed their record year by 7.8 bpa - 22.3%

    SK crop reporters do not have a good past record estimating canola yields. Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 3, 2022 | 13:24 88
    Quote Originally Posted by LWeber View Post
    Here are the record yields set for Canada and three main canola provinces via STATSCAN
    2022 is not final.

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    AB AG missed their record year by 3.1 bpa - 6.8%
    MB AG missed their record year by 4 bpa - 9.1%
    SK AG missed their record year by 7.8 bpa - 22.3%

    SK crop reporters do not have a good past record estimating canola yields.
    60 bpa canola is tossed around like it is normal - it has never been normal.
    The previous 12 year canola average is 37.09 bpa across Canada.
    NDVI estimates for 22/23 is 39.7 bpa - 7% over normal yields.

    I don't know why so many have their s/h/i/t in a knot. Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 3, 2022 | 18:07 89
    Quote Originally Posted by LWeber View Post
    60 bpa canola is tossed around like it is normal - it has never been normal.
    The previous 12 year canola average is 37.09 bpa across Canada.
    NDVI estimates for 22/23 is 39.7 bpa - 7% over normal yields.

    I don't know why so many have their s/h/i/t in a knot.
    Larry if you took the July20-August- Sept rainfalls... that would tell a real story about why our yields in Alberta are not as StatsCan says. We went from blooming to the bin with no rainfall that was enough to fill the pods here... if someone caught an extra shower... it was the exception not the rule... wheat however hung in and did exceed average normals... where canola was 90% of normal. Something does not add up on Alberta Canola numbers, the plant material was there... but the pods didn't fill normally... smaller seeds.

    By this summer... we found when we emptied the Canola bins ... we were 2bu/ac short of measured twice, double audited 2021 yields... 6% moisture canola is 4%weight less than 9% moisture canola... and just about impossible to rehydrate. I don't think it is 6%... on our 914 meter it is unmeasurable low on the charts... but no one cares... it is the farmers loss.

    Cheers Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 3, 2022 | 18:16 90
    Quote Originally Posted by TOM4CWB View Post
    Larry if you took the July20-August- Sept rainfalls... that would tell a real story about why our yields in Alberta are not as StatsCan says. We went from blooming to the bin with no rainfall that was enough to fill the pods here... if someone caught an extra shower... it was the exception not the rule... wheat however hung in and did exceed average normals... where canola was 90% of normal. Something does not add up on Alberta Canola numbers, the plant material was there... but the pods didn't fill normally... smaller seeds.

    By this summer... we found when we emptied the Canola bins ... we were 2bu/ac short of measured twice, double audited 2021 yields... 6% moisture canola is 4%weight less than 9% moisture canola... and just about impossible to rehydrate. I don't think it is 6%... on our 914 meter it is unmeasurable low on the charts... but no one cares... it is the farmers loss.

    Cheers
    The actual oil yield from over dry Canola is another hard number to get out of tests... they say they have to send it away to a lab to find out??????? Oil profiles.. no problem... and perhaps the oil yeild is also down when short of filling moisture... I don't know the data on that... once end users know the crop quality... the basis is adjusted... in western Canada... we are in the dark. Reply With Quote