The bullish case

[dmlfarmer]

globalism is capitalism at its maximum. Buy/build/produce at least cost, no matter where in the world that may be (third world) and focus sales on those willing to pay the most (first world). Minimize taxes by moving head offices to tax havens (Ireland, Caymens etc) to maximize returns to owners/shareholders.

Repatriation is nothing more than a tax on buyers given few first world people are willing to work for the wages currently being paid to third world producers and capitalists have no incentives to increase production costs; especially if demand decreases because of higher prices for goods which is the result of repatriation.

Repatriation is as much a pipedream as trickle down economics is going to make the poor wealthy.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

globalism is capitalism at its maximum. Buy/build/produce at least cost, no matter where in the world that may be (third world) and focus sales on those willing to pay the most (first world). Minimize taxes by moving head offices to tax havens (Ireland, Caymens etc) to maximize returns to owners/shareholders.

Repatriation is nothing more than a tax on buyers given few first world people are willing to work for the wages currently being paid to third world producers and capitalists have no incentives to increase production costs; especially if demand decreases because of higher prices for goods which is the result of repatriation.

Repatriation is as much a pipedream as trickle down economics is going to make the poor wealthy.

The alternative to repatriation is that we go without basically everything we have grown accustomed to. It's not a pipe dream it's not something anyone is wishing or hoping for. It's a necessity given the breakdown of globalization. As we find that we can no longer access lithium or neon or copper or phosphate or virtually any other raw material on the world market, we will have no choice but to develop our own, regardless of cost or environmental cost. Either that or else the industrialized completely.
And in order to pursue those resources domestically, we will need to build the tools and equipment locally to develop them, and we will need the energy Independence and security to do so. And we will do it kicking and screaming and protesting every step of the way In a vain attempt to hold on to the lazy entitled lifestyle we have grown used to when the rest of the world did our dirty and hard work for us. Governments of all stripes will finally have to accept that sending our dirty industries offshore and pretending the environmental and humanitarian impacts don't exist was just a shell game.

[sawfly1]

DML right on. You nailed it.
Those good capitalists need socialist subsidies now to bring them back..
Sure If the check is big enough, they will make something here.
Trudeau, Harper, Mulroney, Bush Clinton Regan it makes no difference, they all answer to the same boss.
For those on the right that hate socialism so much they sure seem to want a lot of it. Block imports , tarrifs, subsidies, etc.
I don't think we should go back to makeing shoes or clothes.
But What we need is a super educated work force ,trades , tech.
( look at the states , dumb is cool)

The savings of automation and stuff have to be spread around , to more than the 1/10 of 1 %1
Not sure what the solution is , but look at Norway .,never kissed big oils ass and now have money to burn

[dmlfarmer]

The alternative to repatriation is that we go without basically everything we have grown accustomed to. It's not a pipe dream it's not something anyone is wishing or hoping for. It's a necessity given the breakdown of globalization. As we find that we can no longer access lithium or neon or copper or phosphate or virtually any other raw material on the world market, we will have no choice but to develop our own, regardless of cost or environmental cost. Either that or else the industrialized completely.
And in order to pursue those resources domestically, we will need to build the tools and equipment locally to develop them, and we will need the energy Independence and security to do so. And we will do it kicking and screaming and protesting every step of the way In a vain attempt to hold on to the lazy entitled lifestyle we have grown used to when the rest of the world did our dirty and hard work for us. Governments of all stripes will finally have to accept that sending our dirty industries offshore and pretending the environmental and humanitarian impacts don't exist was just a shell game.

Interesting views from someone who wants Alberta to separate
How does your anti globalization views coincide with your desire that a province of 4 million will be able to produce all the goods and services in house after it separates from Canada? Where will Alberta get the manpower, investment, and knowledge to build our tractors, and cars, and computers, and tires, and clothes, airplanes, chemicals, pesticides, and everything else that is not made in Alberta now? And on the other side of the coin, why should anyone buy the grains Albertan's grow and cattle they raise if Albertans are so against imports of anything? Globalization is just a derogratory term the right has coopted so they do not have to admit the value of trade.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Well that escalated quickly. Apparently now I am anti-globalization, and I am blaming the left for globalization in the first place. Without ever saying either of those things.

I am simply pointing out the trend that is in place and accelerating quickly due to covid and war in Ukraine and the slow motion train wreck that is China today.
Personally, I think globalization has been a huge benefit globally. And on average, Even though there have been very obvious winners and losers. It has been a great deal for the country who has the world's reserve currency, and anyone who can ride on their coattails such as canada. We don't have to do anything or produce anything, just print dollars and use them to buy the production of slave labor anywhere else in the world. They get to keep the pollution and the environmental degradation and do all the nasty unhealthy inhumane work for us. And we get to pretend it doesn't even happen.
Globalization is why we have had such low inflation for so long. Allowing us to increase our standard of living, while simultaneously improving the standard of living of the world's poorest where even slave labor is better than the subsistence farming they were doing before.
But if Zeihan is right, and so far it sure looks that way, that era is quickly coming to an end. I am pointing out the challenges and opportunities that will leave us with. And as I noted I am optimistic that we will come out of this better than virtually the entire rest of the world. If we don't screw it up. Admittedly, I don't have much faith in either side of the political spectrum not screwing it up.
The political statement I made about voters in my response to ajl, is forward looking not backwards looking. I wasn't blaming any political entity for globalization. First of all I don't think it justifies blame, as I explained above it has been beneficial. And all parties have been responsible for that, left, right, unions, consumers, big business, small business have all contributed to getting us to where we are at. But from what I see at this point, the right seems to be accepting that globalization is coming to an end and we need to bring our vital industries back home for security and economic reasons, let alone survival. The left still seems hell-bent on doubling down on the previous trend. Where we won't have energy security we won't have a business environment or taxes or regulations or energy prices or environmental rules that will allow businesses to move back to where their consumers are. They still think we can appease China and appease Putin and everything will go back the way it was a few short years ago.

And since we are way off topic anyways, in regards to separation. I've never suggested Alberta should go it alone. We will join the US. We being any portions of Canada that have resources, not necessarily following any provincial borders and it may not be voluntary in all cases. There is no other option. The end of globalization will make that even more necessary.
Did either of you watch the video?

[sumdumguy]

DML, do you think Alberta is going to put up with this Eastern BS forever? I sure hope they seriously consider separation. The hateful spite has to end for the good of Albertans.

[dmlfarmer]

DML, do you think Alberta is going to put up with this Eastern BS forever? I sure hope they seriously consider separation. The hateful spite has to end for the good of Albertans.

I do. Because Albertan's do not have it nearly as bad in Canada as is portrayed. Albertans have the highest median income of any province. According to Stats Canada the median income after taxes for Canadians in 2019 was $62,900. Alberta led all provinces with average salary of nearly $10,000 more at $72,500. Only one other province had a median income above the Canadian average and it was Ontario at $66,600, well less than Alberta. Out of the top 29 cities in Canada, Edmonton and Calgary rank about 20th in cost of living. Albertans pay less taxes than citizens of any other province. And when push come to shove, there are not a lot of Albertan's that will be willing to give up universal health care and lower cost university education, etc. compared to the US model. Nor will they be willint to foot the bill of provincial policing or a lot of other Canadian services which membership in Canada provides and which Alberta taxpayer would be on the hook for.

Are there inequalities, yes. Is there problems with confederation - definately. But not near the disaster picture many Albertan's are trying to paint.

Alberta is like the cow that continually tries to get out seeking greener pastures when in fact the grass they have is better than the other side of the fence.

[dmlfarmer]

One more point sum. Anyone who thinks Alberta will have more influence and power by leaving Canada where they have roughly 10% of the population and are 1 of 10 provinces and joining the states where Alberta will have just 1% of the population and be just 1 out of 51 states must be smoking something a lot more powerful than Trudeau's weed.

Granted there are differences between a federalist system and a republic, however there are also similarities and the power of the union can override state power. You only have to look at the Roe vs Wade where abortion was legalized in all states not by law but by a supreme court ruling 2 generations ago. And it took 2 generations for the supreme court to reverse that decision freeing states to again make their own ruling. US still federally mandates Covid vaccination for ALL non citizens (except Canadians) entering the US and for ALL foreign nationals to provide proof of that vaccination (passport) before boarding any flight anywhere in the US making their Covid travel rules now even more stringent than Canada's.

On the agricultural front, while most farmers like to think there is no support for Canadian farmers, that is far from the truth. Compare the government support for crop insurance in both countries. Or compare the bankruptcy rate of farms on both sides of the border.

[Hamloc]

Are there inequalities, yes. Is there problems with confederation - definately. But not near the disaster picture many Albertan's are trying to paint.

Alberta is like the cow that continually tries to get out seeking greener pastures when in fact the grass they have is better than the other side of the fence.

I have a slightly different view. From Ottawa’s Point of view Alberta is a cow and Eastern Canada wants all the milk she produces and they want us to keep feeding the cow and what we get in return comes out under the tail!

[TSIPP]

Does everyone realize that if Alberta separates 99% of the Canadian landmass wants to separate with Alberta, just a few dots on the map spread out is what is running/ruining this wonderful country that once was glorious and free.

[Rareearth]

It would be interesting to see the divide based on:
Income levels
Occupation
Age
Ethnicity
Province
Religion

And as always, etc.

[katoe]

alberta will never get the support from voters to separate. This may be wish of some rural albertans but they are vastely out numbered by urban. Best to put energy in keeping the ndp out of power because thats what we will get if the ucp dont get the right leader. in my humble opinion.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

alberta will never get the support from voters to separate. This may be wish of some rural albertans but they are vastely out numbered by urban. Best to put energy in keeping the ndp out of power because thats what we will get if the ucp dont get the right leader. in my humble opinion.

I don't think it comes from within.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I highly recommend watching this interview. Starts out kind of dry, about bonds and interest rates and what direction the fed will go and why.

Same conclusion I've come to, that they need to let inflation run, and keep interest rates low, to spur investment in manufacturing and energy on shore. Sounds like that will be the inevitable outcome, even if it is politically unpopular on the time frame of the election cycle. If you can't watch it all, at least skip to the 32 minute mark, then watch the last ~ 10 minutes, which is somewhat optimistic for North America. Concludes that commodities are the place to be for at least 5 years. Real estate won't crash.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

More examples of input shortages, and price increases cutting production:

From Cuba:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/cubas-sugar-harvest-worst-over-century-another-hit-ailing-economy-2022-05-25/

The report, which cited a spokesman for Azcuba, the state-run sugar company, blamed the shortfall primarily on a lack of inputs, including oxygen for sugar production, fertilizers, pesticides, fuel and spare parts for plant machinery.

"The financial factor was among the most influential in the results of the harvest, exacerbated by the intensification of the economic, commercial and financial blockade of the US Government against the island," the Granma report said.

The report said only 37% of the necessary herbicides and pesticides were available for use this season.

And Ukraine, no big surprise, obviously more factors involved here, but cost of capital and shortages of inputs is the common result:

https://www.producer.com/news/ukrainian-farmers-may-have-reached-a-dead-end/

Farmers are running out of money, barely enough to harvest and sow winter crops. Getting a loan at normal interest rates is difficult. At best, you will be offered 30 percent per annum.

Only a crazy person or a farmer driven to the extreme would agree to take such a loan.

Even if you manage to find money somewhere, it is not a fact that you will be able to buy the required amount of diesel fuel.

In Ukraine, for weeks there has been an acute shortage of fuel and huge queues at gas stations. I start every day by trying to find out if they brought gasoline today or not. If I’m lucky, I’ll have to stand for five hours before refuelling in order to pour 10 or 20 litres into the tank of my car. Therefore, my daily transport is a bicycle, like many other Ukrainians.

China is extending their fertilizer export bans