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Oct 5, 2022 | 19:47
61
The rule book is out the window, we aint in Oz anymore Dorothy.
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Oct 5, 2022 | 20:00
62
[QUOTE=errolanderson;550381]To me, there are serious price pressures heading our way . . . .
Barchart is suggesting $5/bu corn and $10/bu beans. There is not a shortage in the world.
__________________________________________________ ____________________________
The whole article - not the headline.
Sub $5.00 Corn? $10.00 Beans? - sub-5-00-corn-10-00-beans
4 hours ago —
This is Jeremey Frost with some not so fearless market thoughts from www.dailymarketminute.com for Barchart.com.
Could we have made our highs in grains and be missing a great selling opportunity? If Barchart’s production numbers are correct look for a complete melt down in the corn and soybean markets. The next USDA report could be a major market moving event, one that perhaps causes prices to make a limit price move.
Now before you go and fear sell everything I am going to tell you why I think Barchart’s numbers could be wrong. First off I don’t know how they get the numbers that they get and that means I need to put a disclaimer out that they could very well be spot on. Maybe they are simply more accurate then the rest or know something I don’t know.
Having made a disclaimer that I may be wrong I do want to emphasize that I do not think the Barchart.com numbers are correct. I think corn and soybean production numbers get smaller not bigger in the months to come.
The main reason I don’t think so is the wheat production yield dropping by 127 million bushels last week. If you overlay drought monitor from today on top of one from late July or early August one would see why wheat production was down so much. We simply ran out of water. I think the same has happened in corn and bean country; maybe not the eastern corn belt so much. But I think that the western corn belt dry areas are so bad that it is going to pull our average down a fair amount.
To hear more of my thoughts on why I think we will see corn futures trade above $7.50, soybeans above $15.00, and wheat above $11.00 listen below.
https://www.dailymarketminute.com/previousnewsletters/what-happens-if-barchart-corn-production-numbers-are-right
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Oct 5, 2022 | 20:18
63
US national debt is 31 trillion now. Ouch!
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Oct 5, 2022 | 21:15
64
 Originally Posted by errolanderson
To me, there are serious price pressures heading our way . . . .
Barchart is suggesting $5/bu corn and $10/bu beans. There is not a shortage in the world.
The financials are a complete train-wreck.
The consumer totally tapped-out. All the press wants to hear is; inflation, until it isn't, big-time. Deflation is real, even OPEC will get tuned-up. And the Fed , good grief. Has there been a worst Fed in the U.S.? My opinion . . . 2023 and 2024 will be hard-hit years of deflation and bankruptcies, rising unemployment and mergers and For sale signs.
The reporting of the financial press makes me ill, as a lot of people has been gulled into the ideas that this a just a normal downturn. It isn't . . . .
I’m sure u will be right eventually Errol
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Oct 7, 2022 | 10:32
65
Overseas shipping costs plunging. Retailers now cutting prices. Costco may be leading-the-way. Watch for big Christmas discounts as retailers are swamped with invento0ry . . . .
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Oct 7, 2022 | 19:54
66
Originally Posted by TSIPP
US national debt is 31 trillion now. Ouch!
But it’s just fake(fiat) money, right?
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Oct 7, 2022 | 21:39
67
Originally Posted by sumdumguy
But it’s just fake(fiat) money, right?
Thats right if you or I were to print 'Federal Reserve Notes' they would throw us in jail for counterfeiting. When the fed , controlled by an undisclosed group of private shareholders, does it they call it stimulus and charge interest on the newly created debt. Dollars only come into existence as debt with interest owing, therefore its an impossibility for the debt to ever be paid back.
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Oct 7, 2022 | 22:29
68
Originally Posted by biglentil
Thats right if you or I were to print 'Federal Reserve Notes' they would throw us in jail for counterfeiting. When the fed , controlled by an undisclosed group of private shareholders, does it they call it stimulus and charge interest on the newly created debt. Dollars only come into existence as debt with interest owing, therefore its an impossibility for the debt to ever be paid back.
Now it is called 'quantitative' easing...[if the Fed "must" buys bonds that no one wants to prevent monetary illiquidity or currency overvaluation] or 'quantitative tightening' [if the Fed wants to shrink money supply] supposedly to lower inflation...
Cheers
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Oct 11, 2022 | 17:10
70
Oil down, grain down, harvest pressure… interesting times!!
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Oct 11, 2022 | 21:11
71
After the central bank has spent ten years hypnotizing young people into heavy-duty debt loads, they wonder how to put a lid on young person’s insatiable lust for bigger and bigger houses, cars, boats, furniture, trips and more. Now we are going to hang them out to dry. Great Plan.
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Oct 13, 2022 | 06:03
72
At the current rate of CPI using the 1980 methodology a person will see the purchasing power of their savings cut in half in just 4 short years.
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.... I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." - Jefferson
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Oct 19, 2022 | 05:47
74
Major fallout in global natural gas prices in-progress. European electricity prices in a dive. LNG shipments now backing-up at Spanish ports. Can’t unload as storage full. Gas prices dropping like-a-stone. Some analysts say prices may go to zero. Dutch TTC, Korean and Japan nat gas indexes in-a-meltdown. Suffield AECO spot storage hub price tubed to $1 per gigajoule from $4.25 per gig in late Sept. Henry Hub is now 50 percent of recent $10/MMBTU.
This significant energy market event will likely not be reported by main-stream media as it does not meet their inflationary biases.
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Oct 19, 2022 | 06:34
75
Too bad the fallout in fertilizer didn’t start 2 months ago
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Oct 19, 2022 | 06:55
76
Inflation numbers for Canada up to 6.9% (year over year) up again according to Stats Canada, 6.7% last month.
Interest rates will be going up more again…
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Oct 19, 2022 | 07:23
77
Originally Posted by errolanderson
Major fallout in global natural gas prices in-progress. European electricity prices in a dive. LNG shipments now backing-up at Spanish ports. Can’t unload as storage full. Gas prices dropping like-a-stone. Some analysts say prices may go to zero. Dutch TTC, Korean and Japan nat gas indexes in-a-meltdown. Suffield AECO spot storage hub price tubed to $1 per gigajoule from $4.25 per gig in late Sept. Henry Hub is now 50 percent of recent $10/MMBTU.
This significant energy market event will likely not be reported by main-stream media as it does not meet their inflationary biases.
So do you think a guy should hold off buying fertilizer then since natural gas is a staple of N production?
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Oct 19, 2022 | 07:45
78
Originally Posted by flea beetle
So do you think a guy should hold off buying fertilizer then since natural gas is a staple of N production?
Out of my wheelhouse . . . . But production and shipping issues have a major say. IMO, much of gross inflation is simply gouging. This is not inflation. Gouging is short-lived and central bankers have no say. Many asset prices now under heavy price pressure.
If a global war breaks out, shipping will be impacted. If not, prices may have considerable downside. Deflation is coming in strong (IMO) as the recession is deepening quickly. Energies leading the way, despite OPEC cutting oil production and Russian threats.
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Oct 19, 2022 | 08:04
79
Originally Posted by errolanderson
Out of my wheelhouse . . . . But production and shipping issues have a major say. IMO, much of gross inflation is simply gouging. This is not inflation. Gouging is short-lived and central bankers have no say. Many asset prices now under heavy price pressure.
If a global war breaks out, shipping will be impacted. If not, prices may have considerable downside. Deflation is coming in strong (IMO) as the recession is deepening quickly. Energies leading the way, despite OPEC cutting oil production and Russian threats.
Deflation, Errol haven’t seen it in my world. Joystick control for the loader in my 2007 Case tractor. I replaced it in 2017, I payed $2200. It was malfunctioning the other day, I priced a new one it was $5750. Yup deflation. Just booked fertilizer, $35 an acre more than last year. Biggest issue I see will be supply. European fertilizer manufacturers have shut down plants because natural gas was too high of a price. Will North American manufacturers try to export to Europe? No idea. Having said that, with an incoming recession prices could go down as well like they did in 2008-2009. Risky either way being in a drought.
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Oct 19, 2022 | 08:29
80
Originally Posted by TOM4CWB
Interest rates will be going up more again…
Thought they were talking 1/2% increase after the last numbers and move,,, this morning, they're back talking about 3/4% for the next BofC rate hike.
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Oct 19, 2022 | 08:52
81
I saw our external debt is 135% of GDP.
With loss in value of loonies of approx +10% and falling daily how does that effect inflation?
If they are pumping the $value will that not also inflate the money supply.
I'm not a journalist and don't understand it all.
Last edited by shtferbrains; Oct 19, 2022 at 08:54.
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Oct 19, 2022 | 10:16
83
Never have rate hikes been so aggressive, im not expecting them to capitulate anytime soon.
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Oct 19, 2022 | 11:08
84
The only reason rates rises seem aggressive is that they should not have been zero in the first place. There should not have been lockdowns and severe supply chain disruption over wuhu flu either. The sole purpose of central banks is to suppress rates. If they are rising, it is because printing has slowed. Central banks should be disbanded and market rates allowed to prevail and then they would be even higher than they are now. If rates were not allowed to rise then you would lose the currency which would result in economic chaos. Would rather have higher rates than a worthless dollar.
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Oct 20, 2022 | 12:58
85
Farm diesel $1.75
Hope it kicks in soon Errol
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Oct 20, 2022 | 13:03
86
Expand the money supply ten-fold and drop interest rates to zero, then raise the rates ten-fold, the only way to shrink available money ———-> TAXES
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Oct 20, 2022 | 13:06
87
Originally Posted by caseih
Farm diesel $1.75
Hope it kicks in soon Errol
I'm not betting on it. In the United States, meanwhile, distillate stocks have fallen to 106 million barrels, which is the lowest since records of these stocks began back in 1982. In February Europe is placing an embargo on all crude oil from Russia.
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Oct 20, 2022 | 13:20
88
Originally Posted by sumdumguy
Expand the money supply ten-fold and drop interest rates to zero, then raise the rates ten-fold, the only way to shrink available money ———-> TAXES
It designed to crush the middle class into a subservient class . And some are cheering it on , sadly their kids and grandkids will pay the price
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Oct 21, 2022 | 07:29
89
What we are witnessing is the malicious systematic destruction of the supply chain and the economy. Deflationists will be waiting until there are only crumbs left to purchase at exorbinant prices. What they believed to be wealth in savings acounts, was actually only a claim on wealth, that claim expired.
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Oct 21, 2022 | 07:48
90
Originally Posted by biglentil
What we are witnessing is the malicious systematic destruction of the supply chain and the economy. Deflationists will be waiting until there are only crumbs left to purchase at exorbinant prices. What they believed to be wealth in savings acounts, was actually only a claim on wealth, that claim expired.
Biglentil, good point. Supply chain issues have created the perfect opportunity for gouging. Just look at grocery chain profits recently. Is this true inflation?
Once the suppliers losing control of tight inventory, prices collapse. This is now happening one-by-one. Wait for the layoffs, wait for the bankruptcies, welcome 2023 . . . .
Central bankers don't appear to have a clue. They'll destroy the economy on their march to battle inflation and make the current recession/depression far deeper. Asset prices are in big, big trouble (in my view) . . . .
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