The great debt crash

[jazz]

How can you possibly come to that conclusion without seeing the prices from other suppliers in the world?

There is something wrong in the lentil market, thats pretty clear. What was grown here was flooded out, grasshoppers and yeilds 2/3rd of normal. And sitting at 34c. Doesnt add up.

[dave4441]

There is something wrong in the lentil market, thats pretty clear. What was grown here was flooded out, grasshoppers and yeilds 2/3rd of normal. And sitting at 34c. Doesnt add up.

Its all about India. Some years India buys alot, up to a million MT if we go back to the last boom of red demand. 5+ years ago. But last year, ending July 31 2022, they only took 300,000 MT from Canada. With Australian crop coming now thru Dec it is another grain market that will continue to weaken. Turkey hopefully picks up some of the shortfall of demand but we have to compete with Australia on this as well. Today their offers for their new crop is way below 34 cents and reflects closer to 25 in Canada.

[TASFarms]

Its all about India. Some years India buys alot, up to a million MT if we go back to the last boom of red demand. 5+ years ago. But last year, ending July 31 2022, they only took 300,000 MT from Canada. With Australian crop coming now thru Dec it is another grain market that will continue to weaken. Turkey hopefully picks up some of the shortfall of demand but we have to compete with Australia on this as well. Today their offers for their new crop is way below 34 cents and reflects closer to 25 in Canada.

Isn’t the Australian lentil crop in rough shape?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

[ATTACH]11472[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH]11473[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH]11474[/ATTACH]

.

Isn't it incredible how all of these markets bounced off the long-term multi-year trend lines almost exactly.
Hard to deny that technical analysis has some merit.

[BTO780]

Its all about India. Some years India buys alot, up to a million MT if we go back to the last boom of red demand. 5+ years ago. But last year, ending July 31 2022, they only took 300,000 MT from Canada. With Australian crop coming now thru Dec it is another grain market that will continue to weaken. Turkey hopefully picks up some of the shortfall of demand but we have to compete with Australia on this as well. Today their offers for their new crop is way below 34 cents and reflects closer to 25 in Canada.

From what I gather from all this if you grow red lentils you better hope India is starving for reds and Australia goes through a disastrous drought before any price increase prices will happen?
Seems to me anyone who grows reds are big time spectaculars.
Surprised anyone would want to grow these puppies.

[dave4441]

Isn’t the Australian lentil crop in rough shape?

There is some flooding for sure but also areas of huge yields as its a vast country. Crop is late but my understanding, without winter it just delays sales more then anything. But some harvest is happening now.

[wheatking16]

That's 100% correct. Also why $23 durum didn't last and now $14 isn't high enough with twice the crop produced. Buyers find solutions to high prices. But when we get on the extreme end of the market, as we are in many markets today, farmers are still very slow to react.

There are lots of cases where demand is shifting to other countries. Australia being a key supplier with a weaker dollar then Canada and a big crop coming.

Corn trains coming into Alberta slamming the barley market. It's all around us.

This is what marketing is about. Not just hoping for higher values. How much has canola come down in the last few weeks? Sure we can look at a long term chart, draw a long term uptrend. Could have really done that at $23 durum. Today it's $9 per bushel less. $9/bushel.

We will see lower prices from this point forward on small green lentils, canary and yellow peas. What happens this summer and next fall is anybodies guess but if one needs to sell in Jan then price will be lower on these crops. I sense alot of growers are waiting for the new year to sell and typically post crop production show.

Knowing your timeframe is most important.

People place too much emphasis on analysis that is aligned with their wants and needs or does not fit their timeframe.

Twenty-year trends only matter in that timeframe.

If your timeframe to sell is less, then the twenty-year trend is not constructive to your marketing decisions, as every chart demonstrates.

Long-term trends have many wiggles and squiggles along the way.

[errolanderson]

Credit Suisse down 6.6 percent, new record low. Recent stock market strength about to come crashing down? Major financial shocks ahead . . . .

[TASFarms]

Credit Suisse down 6.6 percent, new record low. Recent stock market strength about to come crashing down? Major financial shocks ahead . . . .

Bank run on Credit Swiss. Fed throwing money in there to keep it solvent

[furrowtickler]

Paul Harvey from 1965 .....

https://youtu.be/VPlQ-ANUCuc

[Guest]

wow! hadn't heard that !! , sound familiar

[furrowtickler]

Paul Harvey was way ahead of his time
“Hard Work” is another of his very astute thinking

[errolanderson]

Bank of Canada finally smelling-the-coffee . . . .

Cdn domestic output sputtering. Loonie slammed on ideas the BOC will only hike rates 1/4% next week. Mortgage rates dropping stateside. Cdn mortgage drop in 2023 appears possible as consumers totally tapped out.

Retail is in for one heck-of-a-shake. Deflation may be unrelenting into the 1st quarter.

[errolanderson]

Credit Suisse about to blow? Insurance to protect their bonds from defaulting suddenly skyrocketing.

[biglentil]

Buckle up. The Currency Reset Will Wipe Out Creditors and Usher in CBDCs.

https://youtube.com/shorts/v2b0MckXBVY?feature=share