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Its just noise,..carry on - India bans all wheat exports over food security risk

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    Its just noise,..carry on - India bans all wheat exports over food security risk

    On Thursday, USDA projected that India would export 8 MMT of wheat in the 2022/23 Jul-Jun trade year, down 2 MMT from exports projected for the 2021/22 trade year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/india-bans-all-wheat-exports-food-security-risk

    India bans all wheat exports over food security risk
    Move imposed with immediate effect in attempt to control prices after heatwave damages crops

    India, the world’s second largest producer of wheat, has banned all exports with immediate effect after a heatwave affected the crop.
    A notice in the government gazette by the directorate of foreign trade, dated Friday, said a rise in global prices for wheat was threatening the food security of India and neighbouring and vulnerable countries.
    A key aim is to control rising domestic prices. Global wheat prices have increased by more than 40% since the beginning of the year.
    Before the war, Ukraine and Russia accounted for a third of global wheat and barley exports. Since Russia’s 24 February invasion, Ukraine’s ports have been blocked and civilian infrastructure and grain silos destroyed.
    At the same time, India’s own wheat harvest has suffered a record-breaking heatwave that is stunting production.
    Even though it is the world’s second largest producer of wheat, India consumes most of the wheat it produces. It had set a goal of exporting 10m tonnes of the grain in 2022-23, looking to capitalize on global disruption to wheat supplies from the war and find new markets for its wheat in Europe, Africa and Asia.
    Much of that would have gone to other developing countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.
    Apart from problems with weather damaging harvests, India’s vast stocks of wheat – a buffer against famine – have been strained by distribution of free grain during the pandemic to about 800 million people.
    To balance supply and demand, the government needs about 25m tonnes of wheat each year for an extensive food welfare program that usually feeds more than 80 million people.

    #2
    Wheat finally get its much deserved attention. USA and Canada now added to the long list of wheat production problems in the world.

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      #3
      A few guys switching to more wheat here as dryness continues and wheat market rallies more.
      Wheat had a crop here last year . Less than 10 bus canola still don’t cover bills on most farms if it stays dry .

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        #4
        Canadian farmers have an incredible opportunity to help the economy and the worlds hungry but will be negated to the sidelines due to higher fertilizer prices and government policy .

        This has to be the only government in the world with the resources we have, that will end up looking to import food grain with the nonsense they are proposing.

        There were government people saying the other day in committee that western canada is net zero already and the liberals continue to use a scorched earth policy on western canada.

        Ed Gregorich gave some interesting answers to Ted Falk in the last ag committee meeting.

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          #5
          Some story out china Larry that China has harvested its wheat crop early still green and then chopped.

          Have you seen these videos - what are you hearing.

          https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/wheat-crisis-developing-china-farmers-cut-crops-early

          WTF is going on in the world. The covid insanity just sent everybody into a frenzy.

          Famine assured now.

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            #6
            Have all my wheat bins locked for now, will wait a couple more weeks to see how this plays out.

            Comment


              #7
              G7 warns of grain crisis

              https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3177780/ukraine-g7-warns-grain-crisis-asks-china-not-assist

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                #8
                India can’t get the nitrogen fertilizer it needs.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by TASFarms View Post
                  India can’t get the nitrogen fertilizer it needs.
                  Someone explains to me why India imports lentils and peas but exports wheat.

                  Some sort of globalization bullshite again.

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                    #10
                    Someone eventually has to make the decision of either


                    A. People are going to starve causing a bigger problem OR

                    B. Someone that people will listen to and put this climate crisis as a hoax against humanity.


                    Someone maybe should understand in this country rain is a natural scrubber, as are the forests, native prairie and no till farming.

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                      #11
                      Originally posted by jazz View Post
                      Someone explains to me why India imports lentils and peas but exports wheat.

                      Some sort of globalization bullshite again.

                      Vegetarian population. The demand for lentils per capita is larger in countries with more vegetarians. This population is growing, and so to Is It’s demand for protein - peas offer about double the protein percentage of wheat pound for pound, at generally about the same price per MT. More affluent populations consume lentils despite the higher price. The poorer portions of the population consume the countries large domestic chickpea production.

                      India grows a substantial amount of both crops. However their demand for pulses is not proportionate to their production.

                      Wheat production on the other hand outpaces demand, hence the exports (in a normal year). This year it does not.

                      The year is coming in which Canada will limit or stop canola exports as well. With domestic crush capacity pegged as high as 16M for 2024 a crop wreck like we had last year (12-13M production) will necessitate it. Export bans would not apply to the at least 2-3mmt will be presold for new crop delivery via export most years. But it could mean that forward export sales for subsequent years could not be made.
                      Last edited by farmboy44; May 14, 2022, 14:24.

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                        #12
                        Originally posted by farmboy44 View Post
                        Vegetarian population. The demand for lentils per capita is larger in countries with more vegetarians. This population is growing, and so to Is It’s demand for protein - peas offer about double the protein percentage of wheat pound for pound, at generally about the same price per MT. More affluent populations consume lentils despite the higher price. The poorer portions of the population consume the countries large domestic chickpea production.

                        India grows a substantial amount of both crops. However their demand for pulses is not proportionate to their production.

                        Wheat production on the other hand outpaces demand, hence the exports (in a normal year). This year it does not.

                        The year is coming in which Canada will limit or stop canola exports as well. With domestic crush capacity pegged as high as 16M for 2024 a crop wreck like we had last year (12-13M production) will necessitate it. Export bans would not apply to the at least 2-3mmt will be presold for new crop delivery via export most years. But it could mean that forward export sales for subsequent years could not be made.

                        Canada is already importing canola

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                          #13
                          Originally posted by bucket View Post
                          Canada is already importing canola
                          I didn’t say we aren’t, but we aren’t in sort of notable amount.

                          Some Montana/ND Canola might hit southern crushers but it’s minimal at best. 100-150k per year, 1% of what we export. Your statement is true but your refering to a piss in the ocean. Even this year with how short our canola crop is we won’t bring in more than 150k.

                          There was a rumor the crusher in becancour Quebec bought a EU cargo late last summer but It wasnt true.

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                            #14
                            Originally posted by farmboy44 View Post
                            I didn’t say we aren’t, but we aren’t in sort of notable amount.

                            Some Montana/ND Canola might hit southern crushers but it’s minimal at best. 100-150k per year, 1% of what we export. Your statement is true but your refering to a piss in the ocean. Even this year with how short our canola crop is we won’t bring in more than 150k.

                            There was a rumor the crusher in becancour Quebec bought a EU cargo late last summer but It wasnt true.
                            I wasn't making an arguable point but if the crop doesn't come in at a substantial improvement over last year , one would think those crush plants would get a second look.

                            If they get built and production doesn't keep pace , imports would be needed.

                            Add in the ridiculous policies the liberal government is suggesting and it may change the plant builds as well, unless of course they are built down east.

                            I just throw the comments out for talking points , while the amounts are small, things can change rapidly.

                            And government currently has policies that are not friendly to accomplishing more production , more processing and overall more for the economy.

                            The current government policy if continued could see where more grain is imported.

                            Look at how the potato issue was handled in PEI, they ended up putting 17 million pounds through a snowblower because they didn't look pretty.

                            ANd Russia will be selling wheat to the world while we become what they use to be.
                            Last edited by bucket; May 14, 2022, 16:22.

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                              #15
                              farmboy, why doesn't india convert wheat acres to lentils if they have a surplus, especially if they have shortages of fertilizer and high inputs. Kinda doesnt make sense for us to grow lentils here for them to buy and then they send wheat to china or whatever.

                              Honestly sounds like some fishy globalization scheme, just like how countries with oil end up importing oil instead of extracting it themselves.

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