Its just noise,..carry on - India bans all wheat exports over food security risk

[LEP]

farmboy, why doesn't india convert wheat acres to lentils if they have a surplus, especially if they have shortages of fertilizer and high inputs. Kinda doesnt make sense for us to grow lentils here for them to buy and then they send wheat to china or whatever.

Honestly sounds like some fishy globalization scheme, just like how countries with oil end up importing oil instead of extracting it themselves.

Not a like.

[Quadtrack]

farmboy, why doesn't india convert wheat acres to lentils if they have a surplus, especially if they have shortages of fertilizer and high inputs. Kinda doesnt make sense for us to grow lentils here for them to buy and then they send wheat to china or whatever.

Honestly sounds like some fishy globalization scheme, just like how countries with oil end up importing oil instead of extracting it themselves.

India Ag policy is best described as knee jerk and heads a different direction about every week. They did, and maybe still do, subsidize urea to the farmer, to stimulate wheat and rice production. I was there in 2015-the ground was literally white with hand spread urea in prep for a wheat crop. The farmers had no idea if it needed N, or how much, or rate applied-but it was subsidized. The soil looked terrible-zero organic matter and irrigation infrastructure was crumbling-built by the Brit’s in the 40’s.

Were they ever going to export wheat, or much wheat? Doubtful. 1.4 billion Indians to feed plus give some to Pakistan and Bangladesh. The India govt made a deal with Russia-we won’t export wheat, and we will buy cheaper oil from you - you export your wheat and whatever you can take from Ukraine at now higher prices. Send it to India, or through Singapore ports and it will end up in world wheat markets nicely laundered.

Back to on the ground in India - if there ever was a country living hand to mouth, this is it. They always are trying to manipulate the market of various things to their advantage. And so close to millions starving to death it’s amazing. Sustainable has a very different definition there-it means can we get the population enough calories to get by into next month, and how can this happen as cheaply as possible. It’s quite a place. And no wonder thousands/tens of thousands of them are coming here.

[farmboy44]

India Ag policy is best described as knee jerk and heads a different direction about every week. They did, and maybe still do, subsidize urea to the farmer, to stimulate wheat and rice production. I was there in 2015-the ground was literally white with hand spread urea in prep for a wheat crop. The farmers had no idea if it needed N, or how much, or rate applied-but it was subsidized. The soil looked terrible-zero organic matter and irrigation infrastructure was crumbling-built by the Brit’s in the 40’s.

Were they ever going to export wheat, or much wheat? Doubtful. 1.4 billion Indians to feed plus give some to Pakistan and Bangladesh. The India govt made a deal with Russia-we won’t export wheat, and we will buy cheaper oil from you - you export your wheat and whatever you can take from Ukraine at now higher prices. Send it to India, or through Singapore ports and it will end up in world wheat markets nicely laundered.

Back to on the ground in India - if there ever was a country living hand to mouth, this is it. They always are trying to manipulate the market of various things to their advantage. And so close to millions starving to death it’s amazing. Sustainable has a very different definition there-it means can we get the population enough calories to get by into next month, and how can this happen as cheaply as possible. It’s quite a place. And no wonder thousands/tens of thousands of them are coming here.

Thanks, this is valuable insight to the discussion. India also lacks the Infrustructure to adequately distribute their wheat production in a timely manner. They don’t have the storage facilities or transportation ability to get all that wheat to the starving people they need it prior to it spoiling. Millions of tonnes spoil in government warehouses, i imagine during this recent heat wave the situation was not good either

[checking]

farmboy, why doesn't india convert wheat acres to lentils if they have a surplus, especially if they have shortages of fertilizer and high inputs. Kinda doesnt make sense for us to grow lentils here for them to buy and then they send wheat to china or whatever.

Honestly sounds like some fishy globalization scheme, just like how countries with oil end up importing oil instead of extracting it themselves.

Suggest it is agronomic practice involving crop rotation. Ascochyta blight, anthracnose, botrytis grey mould, sclerotina white mould, etc. problematic from flowering to maturity. How many times could you run lentils before your fungicide bill, or doesn't work, put you out of business?

[Old Cowzilla]

I would think other countries have crop rotation like us for disease and weed control hence different crops. The canola, canola, canola thing don't work here forever either. Asian countries are more concerned about getting cheap grain from Canada to save money not about starving people.

[shtferbrains]

Suggest it is agronomic practice involving crop rotation. Ascochyta blight, anthracnose, botrytis grey mould, sclerotina white mould, etc. problematic from flowering to maturity. How many times could you run lentils before your fungicide bill, or doesn't work, put you out of business?

Saw pics from a Punjabi freind of lentils growing that looked knee high.
Surprised they even podded. Heat must stress them?
Rotation seemed to be wheat, lentils, and paddy rice. Maybe some potatoes to sell farmgate.
Also sold water buffalo milk to locals probably warm. Easy sell because good reputation for unadulterated.
Sounded like about 40 acres supported 2 families +grandparents+farm labor and house servants.

[sawfly1]

The explanation I got in why India grows wheat over peas was ,is that , here in the prairies is about the only place on the planet that peas would yield about the same as wheat.
Supposedly every where else it is about 50% less for the peas VS the wheat.
Considering what disease has done to peas yields here , maybe it was just a temporary benefit.

[WiltonRanch]

India has a population of 1.4 billion and 600 million of which are farmers. Talked to a cab driver in Edmonton once. He had burns on his back from hand spreading urea. Still owned his land and would probably pass it on to his kids. Said if they sold it they couldn’t take all the money out of the country. The economy is controlled and manipulated enough to keep food affordable. Imagine if they didn’t revolution would be immediate. Thought it was odd when they announced initially they would backfill Ukraine and Russias export deficiencies. Them and China are the world’s largest wheat producers but they consume everything they grow and import some to boot.

[helmsdale]

Short of a miracle, I don't see any way that close to a billion people don't enter serious caloric deficiency this fall/winter. That is bullish alot of things, but peace and stability aren't on the list...

Print all the money you want, but unless you can walk on water the odds that you can make loaves of bread appear out of thin air is nil.

[furrowtickler]

Short of a miracle, I don't see any way that close to a billion people don't enter serious caloric deficiency this fall/winter. That is bullish alot of things, but peace and stability aren't on the list...

Print all the money you want, but unless you can walk on water the odds that you can make loaves of bread appear out of thin air is nil.

Very well said

[sumdumguy]

Do you remember the 50% tariffs that India put on Canadian pulses last year?

[WiltonRanch]

Do you remember the 50% tariffs that India put on Canadian pulses last year?

This is just it. Feast or famine, hand to mouth describes India. Amazes me with how chaotic and tumultuous it can be there they keep a democracy functioning.

[agstar77]

All H breaking loose tonight HRS at 16.70.

[errolanderson]

Heads-up . . . India is still exporting wheat. Traders suggest 4 to 5 million MT minimum despite export ban. Also, recent wheat price rally this week may have already priced this in. Egypt reportedly just booked 500,000MT deal with Delhi. This suggests futures volatility. Black Sea news right now is seen neutral.

[furrowtickler]

Mother Nature trying her damdest to ban wheat exports from western Canada lol