Energy Transition Just died This Week

[jazz]

chuck is pretty quiet these day. Maybe having your whole dream of a world powered by wind and solar and fairy dust destroyed by reality is a bit much to take.

This renewable farce is over. Its done, it will never get off the ground ever again. Countries are scrambling to secure their production, hoarding supplies, looking for more drilling, LNG, etc. All of the renewable materials have 3X in price. Canada has been called to open the taps for europe. US upping natural gas for transport to Europe, middle east holding supplies down, and a new eastern bloc of China and india sipping on cheap Russian sanctioned oil.

Its over, just like I predicted. What a joke it even got this far. Letting children set energy policy. Only question is now how high oil goes. Its not even driving season yet.

[shtferbrains]

Been dead for some time.
They pretended to come out of the COP26 with some kind of agreement but just mostly BS.

Over 1/2 the world population has only pretended interest.

Mandates can't be achieved by chanting about EV'S,Solar Panels,and Windmills.

Some more realistic outlooks suggested here;

The 2022 Global Energy Agenda

Start on chapter 2

[WiltonRanch]

Yes and we get slapped with an increase in the carbon tax. I swear Singh is a foreign agent for India or Russia.

[Taiga]

I assume the announcements today will lead to a drop in oil prices later this year once all this productions gets on stream.

[blackpowder]

I agree. But consider, if in the longer term, this gives natural incentive for the search for alternate energy sources. Note I did not stipulate what alternate looked like.

[Old Cowzilla]

I agree. But consider, if in the longer term, this gives natural incentive for the search for alternate energy sources. Note I did not stipulate what alternate looked like.

Might have to hire my Amish neighbors to custom seed and pay them off with good heavy oats.

[checking]

Jazz.

The fact that certain people buy into "the driving season" is nothing more than a trigger to ramp up the thought that gasoline is being overused. Get rid of the trigger words. You possess too many of them.

Secondly, accept that cc. has consistently stated that fossil fuels will have to be used for a long time yet. I find nothing to trigger any feelings that that is a wrong thought. Provide me with an equal, or better, solution to base load at an affordable price, and I'll be happy to switch my yearly energy requirements.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I agree. But consider, if in the longer term, this gives natural incentive for the search for alternate energy sources. Note I did not stipulate what alternate looked like.

Exactly. There will be market based solutions. And nothing motivates entrepreneurs like high prices. And nothing distorts a market and can send if off on dead ends like government subsidies.

I'm guessing that even the phrase alternative energy is so damaged now that the actual solution won't even associate itself with such a word or notion.

I remain optimistic about human ingenuity. Too bad we just wasted decades chasing non solutions to non problems, while ignoring actual problems and potentially workable solutions.

[WiltonRanch]

What I find interesting with this “special exercise” in Ukraine and whatever else you’d think oil should be to the moon but it has yet to peak like it did before in a no war situation. Still it’s gone up, especially at the pumps but crude itself hasn’t hit any records. What am I missing?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

What I find interesting with this “special exercise” in Ukraine and whatever else you’d think oil should be to the moon but it has yet to peak like it did before in a no war situation. Still it’s gone up, especially at the pumps but crude itself hasn’t hit any records. What am I missing?

There is no actual loss of production worldwide, yet.

Europe can bluster all they want, but at the end of the day, they have no alternative to Russian energy on any reasonable time frame, except possibly freezing in the dark with no fertilizer, or industries.

And supposedly Russia can't actually shut in production, even temporarily, since so much of the infrastructure and wells is in cold permafrost, and it will freeze if not producing perpetually.

There is however a good possibility that without the outside expertise and material support that the more complicated projects can not be kept producing. Not sure I buy that story, but time will tell.

[Hamloc]

chuck is pretty quiet these day. Maybe having your whole dream of a world powered by wind and solar and fairy dust destroyed by reality is a bit much to take.

This renewable farce is over. Its done, it will never get off the ground ever again. Countries are scrambling to secure their production, hoarding supplies, looking for more drilling, LNG, etc. All of the renewable materials have 3X in price. Canada has been called to open the taps for europe. US upping natural gas for transport to Europe, middle east holding supplies down, and a new eastern bloc of China and india sipping on cheap Russian sanctioned oil.

Its over, just like I predicted. What a joke it even got this far. Letting children set energy policy. Only question is now how high oil goes. Its not even driving season yet.

[ATTACH]10397[/ATTACH]

Europe suddenly seems to realize they have linked their energy security of supply to a tyrannical regime in Russia. Yet the Europe and North America are poised to repeat the mistake. Both say renewables are the answer. 80% of the world solar panels are manufactured in China. Of the materials used to make solar panels, China controls 64% of the polysilicon material worldwide, the U.S. has a 10% market share. After polysilicon comes the solar ingots and wafers, China’s share is nearly 100% worldwide. It doesn’t appear that world leaders are learning from their mistakes!!!

[jazz]

What I find interesting with this “special exercise” in Ukraine and whatever else you’d think oil should be to the moon but it has yet to peak like it did before in a no war situation. Still it’s gone up, especially at the pumps but crude itself hasn’t hit any records. What am I missing?

The sanctions have a time delay in them. Most dont go into full force for another couple months.

Called virtue signal wiggle room.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The sanctions have a time delay in them. Most dont go into full force for another couple months.

Called virtue signal wiggle room.

And they probably never will be enforced. It would take years or decades to replace the Russian oil and gas into Europe.

[LEP]

I agree. But consider, if in the longer term, this gives natural incentive for the search for alternate energy sources. Note I did not stipulate what alternate looked like.

I read an interesting report by Goerhing and Rozencwajg from FEB 23, 2022 called "The distortion of cheap energy"

The jist of it is that the only reason "green energy" has moved ahead at all is because of the last few years of cheap oil and cheap interest rates. Green energy is so capital and energy intensive that it can only return 3.5:1 on energy expended, oil is 30:1 and nuclear is 100:1. So if oil remains high and interest rates creep up " clean green " will never happen.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I read an interesting report by Goerhing and Rozencwajg from FEB 23, 2022 called "The distortion of cheap energy"

The jist of it is that the only reason "green energy" has moved ahead at all is because of the last few years of cheap oil and cheap interest rates. Green energy is so capital and energy intensive that it can only return 3.5:1 on energy expended, oil is 30:1 and nuclear is 100:1. So if oil remains high and interest rates creep up " clean green " will never happen.

Is that a paid report? I can't find it.