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Landdownunder's Avatar May 3, 2022 | 02:21 31 Probably swazhili to guys but us queens English

https://bit.ly/220503WheatBarleyOutlookVideo Reply With Quote
Landdownunder's Avatar May 3, 2022 | 02:22 32 https://bit.ly/220503WheatBarleyOutlookVideo
Last edited by Landdownunder; May 3, 2022 at 05:40.
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Landdownunder's Avatar May 3, 2022 | 15:43 33 The odds of Australia having another huge crop almost three in a row unheard off but the ducks are lining up.

My patch for sure we had a crap year last year but Australia wide huge don’t suffer from backyarditus.

Not sure if Austcanada is amongst it but his state of WA they 15 or so guys I know arectravelling very nicely. Reply With Quote
Landdownunder's Avatar May 7, 2022 | 16:44 34 https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/wp-con...la-Outlook.pdf Reply With Quote
Landdownunder's Avatar May 8, 2022 | 03:05 35 Bit of rain about in most states.

To much for some just right for others tad more needed for some.

Think Austcananada will fill us in but think fair whack of WA is is ok to good category.

No idea we’re there gonna store this harvest huge carry over of low protien wheat. Reply With Quote
Landdownunder's Avatar May 11, 2022 | 15:13 36 My fowards sales thus far tiny bit of wheat barley canola under 10% of expected production.

Selling in rising market better than falling.

Sit wait stalk incremental sale was the plan with targets.

Think might revise targets.

My aim is top 15% of prices. But current market one wonders were top is and when it will come.

All eyes on India Pakistan it seems. Dry in USA and parts of EU taken a back seat. And ukraine Reply With Quote
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  • May 11, 2022 | 16:11 37 New crop over 15 C$. Things are getting interesting. Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar May 12, 2022 | 04:04 38
    Quote Originally Posted by agstar77 View Post
    New crop over 15 C$. Things are getting interesting.
    Thanks Agstar77 was actually wondering if anyone reads it. Reply With Quote
    Austranada's Avatar May 12, 2022 | 05:05 39
    Quote Originally Posted by Landdownunder View Post
    Bit of rain about in most states.

    To much for some just right for others tad more needed for some.

    Think Austcananada will fill us in but think fair whack of WA is is ok to good category.

    No idea we’re there gonna store this harvest huge carry over of low protien wheat.
    We're in excellent shape especially after today and more showers coming nice and gentle and widespread. The carryover will disappear I reckon although there still likely will be supply chain delays. Ships busy outloading from Albany lately. Going to Esperance port soon to check it out. Bunbury in early June. Low protein not an issue with current global situation. Funny how grain test ers are recalibrated in step with supply/demand Reply With Quote
    May 12, 2022 | 05:37 40
    Quote Originally Posted by Landdownunder View Post
    Thanks Agstar77 was actually wondering if anyone reads it.
    Very detailed newsletter! Thanks Mallee!

    Got our peas in last week, should finish wheat this week. Moisture ok but only .33" in the last month... been cool 10-15c in the day and often just freezing at night. Crop protection weed killers short in supply. Crazy Ivan is stealing; JD equipment... Veg oils... wheat... in Ukraine... **** and pillage 'special operation' threatening global thermal nuclear war... $15 wheat and $26 Canola off the combine prices... Biblical apocalyptical times... Biden and Trudeau are a few bricks short of a full load... infant food and Diesel shortage in US/Argentina...???

    Flood or catastrophic drought threats in North America will keep things volatile this summer!!!!

    Many Blessings! Reply With Quote
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  • Landdownunder's Avatar May 13, 2022 | 05:08 41
    Quote Originally Posted by TOM4CWB View Post
    Very detailed newsletter! Thanks Mallee!

    Got our peas in last week, should finish wheat this week. Moisture ok but only .33" in the last month... been cool 10-15c in the day and often just freezing at night. Crop protection weed killers short in supply. Crazy Ivan is stealing; JD equipment... Veg oils... wheat... in Ukraine... **** and pillage 'special operation' threatening global thermal nuclear war... $15 wheat and $26 Canola off the combine prices... Biblical apocalyptical times... Biden and Trudeau are a few bricks short of a full load... infant food and Diesel shortage in US/Argentina...???

    Flood or catastrophic drought threats in North America will keep things volatile this summer!!!!

    Many Blessings!
    Thanks Tom will keep posting it then. Got a few offside here but life goes on. Seeding happening here on marginal moisture but better than zero moisture have a top weekend chaps Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like

    LEP

  • May 13, 2022 | 13:56 42
    Quote Originally Posted by Landdownunder View Post
    Thanks Tom will keep posting it then. Got a few offside here but life goes on. Seeding happening here on marginal moisture but better than zero moisture have a top weekend chaps
    Mallee wonderful to have a perspective from you and your different view of the world from‘ down under’!!!

    We are going to need all the perspectives we can find to make wise decisions this year!

    Finishing up planting our wheat this weekend… hopefully we will get some rain next week!!! Canola ground here would be much better to plant with a top up! Wet low spots are as dry now as last fall… the extra snow melt went down very quickly!

    Crazy year, some folks in southern Alberta have stopped seeding on dry land as it is too dry without irrigation. The Peace country too wet…

    Feast or famine …

    Cheers Reply With Quote
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  • fjlip's Avatar May 13, 2022 | 17:56 43 mallee, is it EVER flooded too wet to seed down under? We are in the E part of SK, had crazy snow and COLD till late April. Fields are mud and water, zero planting, maybe not for weeks.

    tom we would be having a FEAST, on this moisture but unable to seed at all. Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar May 14, 2022 | 04:53 44
    Quote Originally Posted by fjlip View Post
    mallee, is it EVER flooded too wet to seed down under? We are in the E part of SK, had crazy snow and COLD till late April. Fields are mud and water, zero planting, maybe not for weeks.

    tom we would be having a FEAST, on this moisture but unable to seed at all.
    Parts of qld awash.

    But my patch never floods Reply With Quote
    May 14, 2022 | 06:31 45 India harvesting wheat now. Banned exports. Reply With Quote
    May 14, 2022 | 08:12 46
    Quote Originally Posted by agstar77 View Post
    India harvesting wheat now. Banned exports.
    Thanks for pointing this out. I had missed this headline. India was supposed to help with lack of wheat coming out of the Ukraine. Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar May 15, 2022 | 22:55 47 https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/chartp...ply With Quotehttps://www.cloudbreak.com.au/chartpack-220516
    Last edited by Landdownunder; May 16, 2022 at 14:59.
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  • Landdownunder's Avatar May 21, 2022 | 21:55 48 https://bit.ly/220518Outlook

    Some one hotnlink it have a good Sunday arvo chaps
    Last edited by Landdownunder; May 22, 2022 at 02:59.
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    Landdownunder's Avatar May 26, 2022 | 05:10 49 https://bit.ly/220526WheatUpdate Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Jun 2, 2022 | 13:44 50 https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/wp-con...ola-Update.pdf Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Jun 8, 2022 | 01:13 51 ABARES has released its first 22/23 season estimates for #Australia. Incredibly heavy east-coast rainfall has limited winter planting. Total winter crop production is f’cast down 18% y/y. #Canola and #lentil area is f’cast higher, to the detriment of barley, beans and chickpeas. Reply With Quote
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  • Landdownunder's Avatar Jun 8, 2022 | 02:21 52 https://bit.ly/220606WheatBarley
    Last edited by Landdownunder; Jun 8, 2022 at 12:21.
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    Jun 20, 2022 | 23:23 53
    Quote Originally Posted by Landdownunder View Post
    https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/chartpack-220621

    Someone hot link it thanks
    https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/chartpack-220621

    I hotlinked it, then I tried to go to the page, but I get an error. Do I need to be signed in?
    Last edited by AlbertaFarmer5; Jun 20, 2022 at 23:40.
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    Landdownunder's Avatar Jun 21, 2022 | 14:29 54 Not sure original link doesn’t work either for me Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Jul 29, 2022 | 03:02 55 Sorry Chaps been a while since down under opinion.

    https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/wp-con...ola-Update.pdf Reply With Quote
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  • Landdownunder's Avatar Jul 29, 2022 | 03:03 56 Wheat barley tommorow AM cya Ava gd weekend Reply With Quote
    Jul 30, 2022 | 01:16 57
    Quote Originally Posted by Landdownunder View Post
    Sorry Chaps been a while since down under opinion.

    https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/wp-con...ola-Update.pdf
    Interesting the USDA has Canola in Canada at 20mmt... and the EU at 18.25mmt up 1mmt from last year.

    "Managed Funds - Managed funds continue to unwind their net long position in soybeans with the weekly Commitment of Traders report showing funds sold a net 8k contracts to be 87.8k con- tacts net long, the lowest level since December 2022. The funds increased their net short position in ICE canola by around 6k contracts to be at 16k net short the largest net short position since July 2020."...

    As the global balance sheet begins to loosen its belt, oilseed prices could begin to normalise from the extreme levels seen over the last 12 months.
    Nov. ‘22 Matif (EU) ****seed
    We maintain our recommendation of 25 to 30% forward sales of conservative production. Growers who are underweight against their usual hedging program may look to add to sales on the re- cent uptick in prices which are still at decile 9.56. Otherwise, Aus- tralian canola prices seasonally reach a low through July / August and rise into October where further sales should be targeted."

    Very interesting Mallee! A nice 20mm here tonight... on the dry side but nice crops here.

    Blessings and Salutations! Reply With Quote
    Landdownunder's Avatar Jul 31, 2022 | 01:59 58 Thanks Tom at least someone reads it……

    Just market opinion from down here take it or leave it.

    Foward selling common in oz whereas reading comments from you guys options trading used widely it seems in place of physical sales. Both good options.

    I’m looking for a run up to $370 on farm for feed barley will foward sell another parcel export market. Parcels usually 120 to 200 tonne licks Reply With Quote

  • Jul 31, 2022 | 07:51 59
    Quote Originally Posted by Landdownunder View Post
    Thanks Tom at least someone reads it……

    Just market opinion from down here take it or leave it.

    Foward selling common in oz whereas reading comments from you guys options trading used widely it seems in place of physical sales. Both good options.

    I’m looking for a run up to $370 on farm for feed barley will foward sell another parcel export market. Parcels usually 120 to 200 tonne licks
    Mallee, I am selling cash grains and cover risk of being short of grain by buying call options in tandem.

    The Put options are very good risk management insurance especially early in the season before we have an indication where our production/yields are headed.

    The upward volatility creates huge opportunity… Put options to catch the premium as the market falls at an extremely fast pace.

    The Australian perspective is very helpful for gleaning a balanced marketing plan !!!

    Blessings and Salutations Reply With Quote
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  • Landdownunder's Avatar Aug 9, 2022 | 04:37 60 New seasons barley kicked almost $20 per tonne since Friday.

    Reasons not known to me.

    Sold into it small lick 125t at $360 on farm straight off combine Reply With Quote