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Feb 25, 2022 | 18:38
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Realize this is not a main stream headline, but inflation is already quickly slowing. Now economies have entered (which may be a shortened) stagflation period (we’ll see). Then, there may be a risk of full-on deflationary pressure. My opinion.
If stock markets remain in-decline and leg lower, inflation may have its legs cut-out from under it. Credit markets would come under pressure.
Here’s a piece of financial trivia and history. Found this interesting . . . . The crash of 1929 and 1987 occurred exactly 55 days after stock markets peaked (in the day).
Stock markets today peaked on Jan 3rd, 2022. The 55th day after our recent peak is Monday, Feb 27th.
Weird or what?
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Feb 25, 2022 | 18:39
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Hope so but have you filled your tank lately.?
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Feb 25, 2022 | 20:15
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Or been to the grocery store
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Feb 25, 2022 | 20:36
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10.49 for Mayo. Inflation train chugging just fine.
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Feb 25, 2022 | 21:03
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Oh, yeh deflation is really evident, tell me where?
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Feb 25, 2022 | 21:07
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 Originally Posted by sumdumguy
Oh, yeh deflation is really evident, tell me where?
When the package gets smaller? 🤨
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Feb 25, 2022 | 22:41
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Unless this war is contained, we may witness the most violent market reactions in-history. This is not a test . . . .
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Feb 25, 2022 | 23:13
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Originally Posted by errolanderson
Unless this war is contained, we may witness the most violent market reactions in-history. This is not a test . . . .
A package of hot dogs now cost what a pound of ground beef did a few yrs ago. Any roast or package of chicken is $40-50.
Going to take a lot of rate hikes to put this back in the bottle.
Inflation is a monetary problem errol. Only one solution for that.
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Feb 25, 2022 | 23:14
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Originally Posted by jazz
A package of hot dogs now cost what a pound of ground beef did a few yrs ago. Any roast or package of chicken is $40-50.
Going to take a lot of rate hikes to put this back in the bottle.
Inflation is a monetary problem errol. Only one solution for that.
Jazz . . . credit markets will take care of this.
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Feb 25, 2022 | 23:38
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Originally Posted by GohnJalt
Interest rate hikes would cause a cascade of defaults and a complete market failure. The WEF in its minions will then claim capitalism is at fault when infact it was a failure of their corrupt fiat monetary system and their policies that hastened its demise. They will argue the need for a centralized system of control and stakeholder capitalism where they have total control, because individuals are clearly too stupid to make economic decisions. A full chinese style social credit system with CBDC will be put in place, tow the line or have your wallet instantly frozen. Get privileges like food and heat if you turn your neighbours in who are not complying, maybe they keep a few undeclared chickens. Sry for the grim look into the future but this is the globalist's "great reset".
Rate hikes would be a disaster. Bank of Canada is 1st up-to-bat in early March. There is no way . . . .
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Feb 26, 2022 | 07:26
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Originally Posted by errolanderson
Rate hikes would be a disaster. Bank of Canada is 1st up-to-bat in early March. There is no way . . . .
I am reading an article that said the only modern country on the planet that can raise interest rates is the US. Canada is holding a housing bubble and way too much govt debt, not enough investment. Going to lose that fake AAA status. EU will see capital flight now after Russia and the ECB is over extended as well. Japan is well Japan.
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Feb 26, 2022 | 10:23
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Right or wrong I still say we need to raise interest rates, by not doing so housing prices will keep soaring and inflation will only get worse. The feds have painted themselves into a corner now and raising interest rates would be unpopular now. The government and a lot of people are living beyond their means, if rates go up we’re going to see some failures, but as a whole the economy will eventually recover.
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Feb 26, 2022 | 10:39
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I think a little different than others.
Before you can claim inflation is easing or deflation is happening, we have to get back to where we were before it all started.
Compared to wages , real house prices, fuel prices etc.
As an example fuel is higher now than when oil was $140 a barrel.
at one point they should quit saying inflation and use the real term....gouging.
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Feb 26, 2022 | 11:08
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On the back of a napkin calculation it takes about the same amount of gold to buy a fancy pick up today as it did in 1974.
Is that gold standard?
Just need the gold?
Cash in the bank not so much?
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Mar 2, 2022 | 06:52
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It’s been reported, Russia’s central bank will not pay interest on its bonds (default). Russia is effectively bankrupt after a few days of war.
This will take years of financial pain to repair . . . .
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Mar 2, 2022 | 07:11
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Why is there a war?
- every one seems to ignor this
Same as every other war, oil or resources
- yes used to be part of USSR
- Putin wants to control Europe, extracting ( similar to major canola processors exporters) maxium margins plus 10% for Russia for oil and gas infrastructure and mining infrastructure and pipelines that lead to NATO European countries
The USA, Nato etc are letting Putin take Ukraine, so he will.
At a minimum he will squeeze Ukraine economically- throw in all the corruption Europe will be held hostage
Unbelievable planes haven't flown over the tanks lines up on the road ways to drop a few bombs or launch a few missles ( seems a little Treaudo (skippy) esk)
Also read that ave Ukraine income 8 or 900 month, vs India at about 1,100. I would not have guessed that
Last edited by Rareearth; Mar 2, 2022 at 07:25.
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Mar 2, 2022 | 07:26
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That is precisely what I was thinking. When you see the pictures of these tanks nicely lined up barely crawling for 40 km, I’ve been wondering why the Ukrainians are sitting in Kyiv waiting for them and not attacking the tanks enroute. They said on the radio that a molotov cocktail can take out a tank. Planes with bombs could also destroy them. You would think that with the slow movement, the tanks are sitting ducks. I don’t know a thing about wartime maneuvers but just hoping the Uks can turn Putin around.
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Mar 2, 2022 | 07:52
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Ukraine also very corrupt
Putin buys off Ukraine prime minister, then re instates him? Or others?
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Mar 2, 2022 | 07:56
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Doesn't seem to be any shortage of people paying 30- 40 % more than 2 yrs ago for toys, trucks,cars ,houses and land. Only shortage of poor salesmen, rest getting very rich making fools part with the money.
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Mar 2, 2022 | 10:04
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Blew through the $100 oil that was considered a stretch.
Commodities all rocketing.
BOC up 1/4%. First increase since 2018.
Average Joe incomes/wages not much movement yet. That has to change.
Can't keep living the same.
Government spent all the money and are killing our oil and gas exports.
How much less will you get per you buck?
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Mar 2, 2022 | 10:17
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Originally Posted by Old Cowzilla
Doesn't seem to be any shortage of people paying 30- 40 % more than 2 yrs ago for toys, trucks,cars ,houses and land. Only shortage of poor salesmen, rest getting very rich making fools part with the money.
Very true
People are buying overinflated crap like never before , most on credit and loans meanwhile they won’t be able to afford mortgages, fuel or even food for the families shortly . Crazy world
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Mar 2, 2022 | 11:27
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Mass credit defaults may have-a-way of correcting inflationary pressures without any help from central bankers. Incoming real estate setback will be an awakening . . . .
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Mar 2, 2022 | 13:01
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Originally Posted by errolanderson
Mass credit defaults may have-a-way of correcting inflationary pressures without any help from central bankers. Incoming real estate setback will be an awakening . . . .
Real estate is a fairly broad term.
Are you forecasting this across all sectors, or just housing, just commercial/industrial? What about farmland?
Demand destruction aside, recent events are bullish commodities for more than a short term, I tended to think real estate will be a real case of The haves and have nots for the next few years.
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Mar 2, 2022 | 22:54
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Capital destruction in Russian equities this week is the most amazing market collapse I’ve seen in my career.
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Mar 2, 2022 | 23:41
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Recession is written all over these markets . . . .
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Mar 4, 2022 | 22:49
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Investors are now racing into the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven investment.
Gold prices have firmed this past month, but remain vulnerable to sudden, harsh sell-offs. The same can be said for cryptos.
Gold has proven it can’t hold any rallies very long. Maybe gold may take a run at $2,000, but $1,800 may be in-the-gunsight once again.
When push comes to shove, investors still tend to flock toward the USD in times of global uncertainty.
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Mar 4, 2022 | 23:05
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Mar 4, 2022 | 23:43
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In my view, economies now entering a fast-moving stagflation period, then there is risk of a deflationary depression. History repeats itself . . . .
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Mar 4, 2022 | 23:53
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So Govt wants to raise interest rates , isnt this counter to what your thinking?
Will interest rates go negative?
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Mar 5, 2022 | 00:08
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Originally Posted by Rareearth
So Govt wants to raise interest rates , isnt this counter to what your thinking?
Will interest rates go negative?
Central bankers are lost. There is no more manipulation that can resuscitate the economy. And then U.S. bankers now suggesting 7 to 11 rate hikes over the next year. And $185 oil price projections. Which economic school taught this math?
Interest rates hike em, drop ‘em, doesn’t much matter anymore. Apologies for being so cynical . . . .
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