Test Inflation’s Collapse Test

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Inflation’s Collapse

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Sep 5, 2022 | 13:41 181 She’s going to be a rude awakening. Canada squashed every opportunity to be an energy giant, now the Western World will suffer. Trudeau says , No, we can’t help Europe and we aren’t about to try either. Little green nose in the air. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 5, 2022 | 13:47 182 Fertilizer up big again last week
    Where oh where is the inflation collapse?? Reply With Quote
    Sep 5, 2022 | 13:49 183
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Fertilizer up big again last week
    Where oh where is the inflation collapse??
    I heard $1800 urea
    Easy decision next year if so Reply With Quote
    Sep 5, 2022 | 18:28 184

    Interesting but no way to verify Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Sep 5, 2022 | 20:31 185 Weaponizing the dollar is accelerating the dedollarization of the east and hastening the demise of the reserve status of the greenback. Fk around and find out the saying goes.
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    Last edited by biglentil; Sep 5, 2022 at 20:33.
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    Sep 5, 2022 | 21:48 186 Meanwhile in North America we have a two ring circus 🤡 lead by a drama teacher , a journalist here in Canada , and an 80 year old with dementia that has no clue wether to shit or go blind all focused on climate change and woke agendas Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 23, 2022 | 06:51 187 Major weakness in deferred crude oil contracts . . . Sept 23 contract just broke below $74 per barrel. Deflationary pressures now lighting-up-the-scoreboard . . . . Reply With Quote
    Sep 23, 2022 | 07:12 188
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Major weakness in deferred crude oil contracts . . . Sept 23 contract just broke below $74 per barrel. Deflationary pressures now lighting-up-the-scoreboard . . . .
    It looks rough.

    72 incoming.
    Last edited by wheatking16; Sep 23, 2022 at 07:15.
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    Sep 23, 2022 | 07:22 189 Diesel, parts, fertilizer. They be damn expensive. Not much relief there. The rest doesn't really matter. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 23, 2022 | 07:39 190 Costco saying their shipping costs have come down considerably and they will pass-on to the consumer.

    Diesel, parts, fertilizer sticky, but asset prices appear coming down, some quickly. Fed has blown it (IMO). Too aggressive with hikes, economy now in meltdown. Consumerism will take a huge hit, maybe that's good news. Reply With Quote
    Sep 23, 2022 | 10:06 191 Watch for a local top in the USDCAD and DXY either today or Monday.

    A bounce in the stock market and a pullback in the USDCAD and DXY next week. Reply With Quote
    Sep 23, 2022 | 10:18 192
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Major weakness in deferred crude oil contracts . . . Sept 23 contract just broke below $74 per barrel. Deflationary pressures now lighting-up-the-scoreboard . . . .
    States might luck out. Don’t they have to start filling the federal reserve after October? Reply With Quote
    Sep 23, 2022 | 10:50 193
    Quote Originally Posted by TASFarms View Post
    States might luck out. Don’t they have to start filling the federal reserve after October?
    Apparently the US are waiting to fill the strategic oil reserves until next spring…

    Cheers Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar Sep 23, 2022 | 12:28 194 errol at a Fed fund rate of approx 5-6%, the entire economy goes insolvent.

    In 6 months they will be starting QE again and we will have to live with the return of even higher inflation. 1970s type numbers.

    Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, always has been and the money printing is the culprit. Until budgets and printing are reigned in and taxes lowered to increase productivity, deflation not in the cards at all.

    Do you see any govts reigning in spending. The EU is in the process of bailing out numerous companies. Other govts are sending inflation cheques to citizens. Trudeau spent close to 20B just in the past few months. Biden has 3 or 4T under his belt in the past 2 yrs. Reply With Quote
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  • Sep 23, 2022 | 13:43 195
    Quote Originally Posted by TOM4CWB View Post
    Apparently the US are waiting to fill the strategic oil reserves until next spring…

    Cheers
    Won't be Biden's problem. Reply With Quote
    Sep 23, 2022 | 14:06 196
    Quote Originally Posted by shtferbrains View Post
    Won't be Biden's problem.
    Actually sad they still keep him in there
    Should be elderly abuse , he is completely out of his element now . Reply With Quote
    Sep 23, 2022 | 14:26 197 I tend to agree with Errol regarding deflationary pressures. The difficulty of these prognostications lie in when these shifts happen and the lack of a universally accepted metric or benchmark.

    My thesis and that of others is that this inflation is primarily driven by supply chain disruptions.

    Once these begin to correct, we should experience a price reduction to coincide with the decrease in demand.

    The rise in interest rates will reduce demand further, which will not occur in lock-step with the supply decreases.

    Cracks in the natural gas and oil charts show, which, if confirmed, will reduce energy costs.

    My fertilizer charts are showing signs of weakness that growers will enjoy if it plays out. There is hope...

    My grain charts look prime for further downside.

    Oilseeds also.

    Oil and soybean oil track each other remarkably well, so if Oil moves lower......

    What does that mean for soybeans?

    Robotics will allow manufacturing will continue to move to secure, low energy-cost, regions, think North America.

    Will that result in lower-cost goods?

    Maybe.

    Few understand inflation, with the common narrative of the causes and solutions too simplistic to be applicable. Reply With Quote

  • Sep 23, 2022 | 15:21 198
    Quote Originally Posted by wheatking16 View Post
    I tend to agree with Errol regarding deflationary pressures. The difficulty of these prognostications lie in when these shifts happen and the lack of a universally accepted metric or benchmark.

    My thesis and that of others is that this inflation is primarily driven by supply chain disruptions.

    Once these begin to correct, we should experience a price reduction to coincide with the decrease in demand.

    The rise in interest rates will reduce demand further, which will not occur in lock-step with the supply decreases.

    Cracks in the natural gas and oil charts show, which, if confirmed, will reduce energy costs.

    My fertilizer charts are showing signs of weakness that growers will enjoy if it plays out. There is hope...

    My grain charts look prime for further downside.

    Oilseeds also.

    Oil and soybean oil track each other remarkably well, so if Oil moves lower......

    What does that mean for soybeans?

    Robotics will allow manufacturing will continue to move to secure, low energy-cost, regions, think North America.

    Will that result in lower-cost goods?

    Maybe.

    Few understand inflation, with the common narrative of the causes and solutions too simplistic to be applicable.
    I agree Wheatking… unless Putin and Russia dive off the deep end into nuclear war… there is easily sufficient grain to supply demand for the upcoming year.

    I doubt that there is more than a 5% probably of catastrophic war… and it is unlikely that more than a 15% probably of disruptive grain distribution disruptions…

    Therefore with a broad global recession virtually assured 90%…. Localized energy shortages are partially being offset by currency realignments…

    The ‘new green deal’ decarbonization agenda may have been partially delayed yet remains intact to a large degree…

    AI and semiconductor agendas maintaining exponential growth of semiconductor distribution and integration remains unchallenged.

    Humanity is in general on track for civilization to charge into the increasing dehumanization by decarbonization and depopulation objectives UN, WEF, and Asian philosophy are intent on pursuing.

    It is Climate Week globally this week… happy decarbonization!

    Cheers Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Sep 23, 2022 | 15:52 199
    Quote Originally Posted by TOM4CWB View Post
    I agree Wheatking… unless Putin and Russia dive off the deep end into nuclear war… there is easily sufficient grain to supply demand for the upcoming year.

    I doubt that there is more than a 5% probably of catastrophic war… and it is unlikely that more than a 15% probably of disruptive grain distribution disruptions…

    Therefore with a broad global recession virtually assured 90%…. Localized energy shortages are partially being offset by currency realignments…

    The ‘new green deal’ decarbonization agenda may have been partially delayed yet remains intact to a large degree…

    AI and semiconductor agendas maintaining exponential growth of semiconductor distribution and integration remains unchallenged.

    Humanity is in general on track for civilization to charge into the increasing dehumanization by decarbonization and depopulation objectives UN, WEF, and Asian philosophy are intent on pursuing.

    It is Climate Week globally this week… happy decarbonization!

    Cheers
    Wishful thinking the Davos crowd already announced Agenda 2030 was to be expedited.
    I recommend reading this recent wef article on a 'Carbon' approach in which they admit Covid 19 was test in compliance. Pay attention to the buzzwords 'sustainibility' 'inclusitivity' 'My Carbon' 'Stakeholders'.

    "1. COVID-19 was the test of social responsibility – A huge number of unimaginable restrictions for public health were adopted by billions of citizens across the world. There were numerous examples globally of maintaining social distancing, wearing masks, mass vaccinations and acceptance of contact-tracing applications for public health, which demonstrated the core of individual social responsibility."


    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/...inable-cities/
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    Sep 23, 2022 | 16:21 200
    Quote Originally Posted by wheatking16 View Post

    Robotics will allow manufacturing will continue to move to secure, low energy-cost, regions, think North America.

    Will that result in lower-cost goods?

    Maybe.
    But first we have to get from a to b.
    No doubt it is now cheaper (and will continue to be)to make a widget in North America using cheap North American energy, and automation.
    And it won't take very much labor to operate the manufacturing facilities once they are built. But the infrastructure does not exist at this point , it will take a lot of Labor and inputs and energy to repatriate all of these industries. All of which are already in short supply, especially the skilled labor. And that will be very inflationary for many years to come, before we can reap the benefits which will inevitably be deflationary.
    Unless of course we just completely crash the economy and credit markets by trying to fight the inevitable and absolutely necessary inflation which will accompany the reshoring of industries. Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Sep 23, 2022 | 16:25 201 Sry got side tracked there. Inflation is the expansion of the money supply and a rising cpi is the symptom. The elephant in the room is the currency swap agreements being formed by the BRICS that 7 out 8 of the middle east oil producers have also signed onto. This is a massive geopolitical shift away from the petrodollar that has afforded the US fed the privilege to offload much of its inflation onto the rest of the world. No one nation could upend the mighty USD's reserve status, but when nations comprising over 50% of the world's population ditch the dollar they just might. Those dollars no longer needed in trade will come home to roost and as they do anything not bolted down will be up for grabs.
    Last edited by biglentil; Sep 25, 2022 at 06:11.
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  • Sep 23, 2022 | 16:31 202
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    Sry got side tracked there. Inflation is the expansion of the money supply and a rising cpi is the symptom. The elephant in the room is the currency swap agreements being formed by the BRICS that 7 out 8 of the middle east oil producers have also signed onto. This is a massive geopolitical shift away from the petrodollar that has afforded the US to offload much of its inflation onto the rest of the world. No one nation could upend the mighty USD's reserve status, but when nations comprising over 50% of the world's population ditch the dollar they just might. Those dollars no longer needed in trade will come home to roost and as they do anything not bolted down will be up for grabs.
    Very few understand this
    Especially woke leftist leaders like Trudeau or his journalist deputy PM … as in zero clue
    Last edited by furrowtickler; Sep 23, 2022 at 16:34.
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  • Sep 24, 2022 | 00:07 203 CAD closes at 73.57, seems that might add to inflation for everything imported???

    Grains shooting up = food going up??? Reply With Quote
    Sep 24, 2022 | 00:11 204
    Quote Originally Posted by beaverdam View Post
    CAD closes at 73.57, seems that might add to inflation for everything imported???

    Grains shooting up = food going up???
    We are still down tremendously from June highs Reply With Quote
    Sep 24, 2022 | 00:12 205 Reply With Quote
    Sep 24, 2022 | 00:15 206 and every single thing we need to buy is up tremendously

    I don’t give a hoot if Zuterberg just lost 71 billion, could give a ***
    But where do we , the common people stand ???l
    Where will your kids / and grandchildren be when , guess why not one penguin 🐧 will be saved but your grandchildren eat Buggs FFS. Holy *** I can’t believe this garbage
    Last edited by furrowtickler; Sep 24, 2022 at 00:28.
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    Sep 24, 2022 | 06:47 207
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Got 20 % more for my yearlings off the grass than a year ago I'm thinking weak CAD had something to do with it. Reply With Quote

  • jazz's Avatar Sep 24, 2022 | 07:34 208
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Cowzilla View Post
    Got 20 % more for my yearlings off the grass than a year ago I'm thinking weak CAD had something to do with it.
    Told ya all to short the loon a year ago. Reply With Quote
    Sep 24, 2022 | 11:35 209
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Meanwhile in North America we have a two ring circus 🤡 lead by a drama teacher , a journalist here in Canada , and an 80 year old with dementia that has no clue wether to shit or go blind all focused on climate change and woke agendas
    You said it all Furrow. We are doomed until the “Great Right Recovery”. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Sep 26, 2022 | 06:31 210 GBP Futures halted.

    Pound Flash Crashes 500 pips To Record Low Amid Global FX Carnage As Things Start Breaking | ZeroHedge

    If this can happen to the British Pound, it can happen to any currency.

    Errol do you think deflation is their concern in the UK?
    Last edited by biglentil; Sep 26, 2022 at 07:04.
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