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May 24, 2022 | 19:19 61 Is that $185 oil a hot tip?
Go all in with margin account?
Be rich by spring! Reply With Quote
jazz's Avatar May 24, 2022 | 21:07 62
Quote Originally Posted by shtferbrains View Post
Is that $185 oil a hot tip?
Go all in with margin account?
Be rich by spring!
Things have a tendency to run exponentially and then dump hard. I worry about crop prices as well. I just put in a crop with the max input costs and now 4 months away from the bin.

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  • May 25, 2022 | 17:03 63 jazz;"Things have a tendency to run exponentially and then dump hard. I worry about crop prices as well. I just put in a crop with the max input costs and now 4 months away from the bin."

    Bought a whack of $11.20 Min Sept 22 puts; sold first yellow peas for off combine fall delivery... put on Nov22 Put-$1060[bought]-$950[sold] Canola spread to lock in 2022 margins.https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ii...181013848.html

    The US Fed is 'confused'... it doesn't appear to have an inflation anchor 'target' any longer... as the global economy slides towards rescission, hang on as Russia Ruble shoots up... and they cash in... Chaos as central banks pretend to tred water in ; 'stormy hurricane'

    "NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Institute of International Finance slashed its 2022 growth outlook for global output in half, citing the economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's response to a COVID-19 wave and tighter monetary policy in the United States.

    The IIF also expects capital flows to emerging markets to shrink by 42% from last year.

    Based on its new estimates, the global banking trade group said recession risk had risen as true growth was expected to flatline.

    "Weakness is broad-based and leaves little margin for error," IIF economists wrote in a report. "Global recession risk is elevated. In this context, we expect non-resident flows to emerging markets to slow significantly."

    The IIF cut its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.3% from 4.6%, with the G3 - the United States, the euro area and Japan - growing at a 1.9% rate this year. They expect China's growth to decelerate to 3.5% from 5.1% in the previous estimate.

    "The Omicron wave in China is more disruptive than we anticipated and will take a substantial toll on growth and capital flows," the IIF said.

    Growth in the euro area was previously cut to 1% from 3%, mostly on the effects of the invasion of Ukraine. "Importantly, because the statistical carryover from 2021 into this year is 1.9 percentage points, this is a recession forecast that anticipates falling GDP in the second half of the year."

    Growth in Latin America is forecast slightly faster at 2% on the back of high commodity prices, while the IIF expects "a certain degree of resilience" from Middle East and North African oil exporters."

    If you think anyone can predict what will happen over the next 6 months...

    June July August Western half of North America... hot and dry I saw this morning.

    GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!!!! Reply With Quote
    May 25, 2022 | 17:06 64
    Quote Originally Posted by TOM4CWB View Post
    jazz;"Things have a tendency to run exponentially and then dump hard. I worry about crop prices as well. I just put in a crop with the max input costs and now 4 months away from the bin."

    Bought a whack of $11.20 Min Sept 22 puts; sold first yellow peas for off combine fall delivery... put on Nov22 Put-$1060[bought]-$950[sold] Canola spread to lock in 2022 margins.https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ii...181013848.html

    The US Fed is 'confused'... it doesn't appear to have an inflation anchor 'target' any longer... as the global economy slides towards rescission, hang on as Russia Ruble shoots up... and they cash in... Chaos as central banks pretend to tred water in ; 'stormy hurricane'

    "NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Institute of International Finance slashed its 2022 growth outlook for global output in half, citing the economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's response to a COVID-19 wave and tighter monetary policy in the United States.

    The IIF also expects capital flows to emerging markets to shrink by 42% from last year.

    Based on its new estimates, the global banking trade group said recession risk had risen as true growth was expected to flatline.

    "Weakness is broad-based and leaves little margin for error," IIF economists wrote in a report. "Global recession risk is elevated. In this context, we expect non-resident flows to emerging markets to slow significantly."

    The IIF cut its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.3% from 4.6%, with the G3 - the United States, the euro area and Japan - growing at a 1.9% rate this year. They expect China's growth to decelerate to 3.5% from 5.1% in the previous estimate.

    "The Omicron wave in China is more disruptive than we anticipated and will take a substantial toll on growth and capital flows," the IIF said.

    Growth in the euro area was previously cut to 1% from 3%, mostly on the effects of the invasion of Ukraine. "Importantly, because the statistical carryover from 2021 into this year is 1.9 percentage points, this is a recession forecast that anticipates falling GDP in the second half of the year."

    Growth in Latin America is forecast slightly faster at 2% on the back of high commodity prices, while the IIF expects "a certain degree of resilience" from Middle East and North African oil exporters."

    If you think anyone can predict what will happen over the next 6 months...

    June July August Western half of North America... hot and dry I saw this morning.

    GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!!!!
    "FOOD SCARCITY A RISK

    Export bans of agricultural goods in Russia and India, as well as the expected interruption to the sowing and harvesting in Ukraine, were cited as the IIF cautioned there was a wide risk of global food insecurity, with the Middle East and Africa likely the hardest hit.

    "Asian countries are somewhat less exposed to the food price shock stemming from the Ukraine war due to more rice-focused diets, as rice prices have remained relatively subdued in recent years and appear overall less affected by global food price inflation," the IIF said. ... ..."

    P.S. 5% of Gross on Risk Management now committed or spent on the 2022 budget. Too much? Time will tell!!!!
    Last edited by TOM4CWB; May 25, 2022 at 17:24.
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    Jun 9, 2022 | 07:31 65 U.S. and Cdn imports are now in-a-skid . . . . Retailers becoming swamped with inventory that must be discounted out. Big price discounts ahead. Inflation will soon be in the 'rear view mirror' especially once oil prices break after driving season. Freight markets also coming under pressure . . . .

    Cash again king . . . . Reply With Quote
    Jun 9, 2022 | 15:48 66 Errol, dear Errol, where did you get your Economics Degree? Reply With Quote
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  • Jun 9, 2022 | 21:36 67
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    U.S. and Cdn imports are now in-a-skid . . . . Retailers becoming swamped with inventory that must be discounted out. Big price discounts ahead. Inflation will soon be in the 'rear view mirror' especially once oil prices break after driving season. Freight markets also coming under pressure . . . .

    Cash again king . . . .
    If an 'Omega Ridge' builds into the US Row Crop and midwest... with a hot, dry summer... NG will go through the roof in the US... power brown outs...

    This could get ugly.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=culhr1...p=QAFIAQ%3D%3D

    Weather forecast... Reply With Quote
    Jun 9, 2022 | 21:56 68
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    U.S. and Cdn imports are now in-a-skid . . . . Retailers becoming swamped with inventory that must be discounted out. Big price discounts ahead. Inflation will soon be in the 'rear view mirror' especially once oil prices break after driving season. Freight markets also coming under pressure . . . .

    Cash again king . . . .
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...source=yahooUS

    Bloomberg
    Opinion Andrea Felsted
    Target's Oversupply Problem Should Scare All Retailers
    The retailer is known as one of America’s best-run stores. But lately it keeps missing the mark on what consumers want.
    June 7, 2022, 7:10 AM MDTUpdated onJune 7, 2022, 8:07 AM MDT
    Listen to this article
    2:55
    Andrea Felsted is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering consumer goods and the retail industry.

    Target Corp. is off target again.

    "Just three weeks after a profit warning that saw its shares plunge the most since 1987, the big-box operator has cut its outlook again, as it seeks to address a glut of inventory amid a rapid shift away from pandemic purchasing patterns." Reply With Quote
    Jun 9, 2022 | 22:49 69 If you had enough rain ☔️Or soil moisture to this point to get a crop , just be counting your lucky stars as difficult as it was for some
    Zero soil moisture means zero crop …. Period

    Even feed quality will pay well at prices if they hold , zero equals zero
    80% seeded at big bushels regardless of grade is still 80% better than zero
    Ya there is crop insurance but that don’t even come close to the pillaging of inputs this year
    Hope the best for everyone, very few fortunate areas in western Canada , like less than 10% at best
    Last edited by furrowtickler; Jun 10, 2022 at 01:45.
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    Jun 9, 2022 | 22:55 70 By the way how did that “billon dollar rain” turn out for yous in Manitoba last year that the premier was bragging about it this time last year ?

    Zero rain , zero soil moisture is zero crop
    People have short memory , very short Reply With Quote
    Jun 9, 2022 | 22:58 71 Also zeros establishment means zero crop insurance….. something to think about
    Canola crop being lost everyday
    Shipped out nearly 80 bags today of canola for reseed … it’s June 10 tomorrow Reply With Quote
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  • jazz's Avatar Jun 10, 2022 | 06:47 72 CPI in US hit 8.6%.

    Only way inflation stops errol is with a major recession. Its the only tool now. Reply With Quote
    Jun 10, 2022 | 06:50 73
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    CPI in US hit 8.6%.

    Only way inflation stops errol is with a major recession. Its the only tool now.
    already in-progress . . . . Reply With Quote
    Jun 10, 2022 | 06:56 74
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    CPI in US hit 8.6%.

    Only way inflation stops errol is with a major recession. Its the only tool now.
    anyone that believes its only at 8.6% needs a kick in the head
    gas has gone up at least 40%
    most of the packaged foods have gone up and shrunk in size
    heating fuel way up
    almost every farm input has doubled or tripled in price Reply With Quote
    Jun 10, 2022 | 07:52 75 What get me is the labour shortages.

    Every business in saskatoon is looking, advertising, hiring. Every where i look the usa, china, europe there are labour and manufacturing labour shortages.
    Did global population growth stop?
    Or demographics where every one globally retired, died, etc?

    Every one needs labour, businesses must pay and compete to buy labour or close shop. Wages will go higher, housing will still be in demand, quality of life goes up, debt goes up, inflation will stay up, slowing very slowly.

    It aint over yet Reply With Quote
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  • jazz's Avatar Jun 10, 2022 | 07:55 76
    Quote Originally Posted by Rareearth View Post
    What get me is the labour shortages.
    The UE numbers are a complete fiction. So many people dropped out of the workforce and have no plans to go back.

    So yes there is labour demand to fill in the gap for more people not wanting to work.

    Thank your covid central planners for that one. Reply With Quote
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  • Jun 10, 2022 | 08:11 77
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    anyone that believes its only at 8.6% needs a kick in the head
    gas has gone up at least 40%
    most of the packaged foods have gone up and shrunk in size
    heating fuel way up
    almost every farm input has doubled or tripled in price
    Exactly. Anyone buy a chocolate bar lately just as an example. Reese peanut butter cups about the size of a Toonie now. Downsize the product and up the price goes for everything now. Reply With Quote
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  • Jun 10, 2022 | 09:04 78 Watch out for when crude oil tumbles and really pulls-the-pants-down on all the energy bulls . . .

    Stay tuned . . . . Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar Jun 10, 2022 | 09:16 79
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Watch out for when crude oil tumbles and really pulls-the-pants-down on all the energy bulls . . .

    Stay tuned . . . .
    Thats demand destruction, probably in the $130 per bbl range. Should get there this summer.

    Thanks climate fools. You drove the world into a recession, created a war and other hot spots and we still didnt get any investment in critical minerals, materials, commodities and infrastructure. All the money went into fake renewable causes, unprofitable EV scams and crypto.

    Serious, give yourself a slow clap.
    Last edited by jazz; Jun 10, 2022 at 09:20.
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  • Jun 10, 2022 | 11:59 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Rareearth View Post
    What get me is the labour shortages.

    Every business in saskatoon is looking, advertising, hiring. Every where i look the usa, china, europe there are labour and manufacturing labour shortages.
    Did global population growth stop?
    Or demographics where every one globally retired, died, etc?

    Every one needs labour, businesses must pay and compete to buy labour or close shop. Wages will go higher, housing will still be in demand, quality of life goes up, debt goes up, inflation will stay up, slowing very slowly.

    It aint over yet
    Few countries has a sustainable birth rate. Canada is not one of them and our aging population is retiring and spending less resulting in more expensive goods and services.

    Immigration is necessary to combat this.

    My rural Saskatchewan town of 5000 relies on immigrants to provide goods and services, not because people don't want to work, but rather because there are not enough of them.

    The competition for labour is problematic.

    Now, AI and automation will likely eliminate jobs from the low-paid cashier to the highest-paid doctors helping with this, however painful that process will be. Reply With Quote
    Jun 10, 2022 | 12:04 81 There are a lot of perfectly able working age people , who are simply collecting government handouts doing SFA .
    Worse since the CERB started . Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar Jun 10, 2022 | 13:01 82
    Quote Originally Posted by wheatking16 View Post
    Immigration is necessary to combat this..
    Canada has had wide open immigration for 20 yrs and it has done nothing to stop the slide.

    New immigrants land in our big over priced cities, start living multiple generations and multiple jobs to keep up with our insane inflation rate, over regulation and poor productivity. They have no time or resources to upgrade themselves and fall into the service sector and stay there.

    Then they stop having kids as soon as they start tallying up the costs to educate them. You see many new immigrants with more than 2 kids.

    The costs in Canada and our govt run by childish fools is our biggest impediment. Reply With Quote
    Jun 10, 2022 | 13:55 83
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    There are a lot of perfectly able working age people , who are simply collecting government handouts doing SFA .
    Worse since the CERB started .
    Didn't CERB end 7 months ago? Reply With Quote
    fjlip's Avatar Jun 10, 2022 | 18:32 84
    Quote Originally Posted by blueversi View Post
    Exactly. Anyone buy a chocolate bar lately just as an example. Reese peanut butter cups about the size of a Toonie now. Downsize the product and up the price goes for everything now.
    Every item is up 20-30% in every store, gouging crooks just because they CAN! Reply With Quote
    Jun 11, 2022 | 03:22 85 Some major commodities showing significant cash price breakdowns recently as recessionary pressures deepen. Lumber prices are now nearly in free fall. Dr. Copper appears in sickbay. Spot natural gas prices now in-decline. Reply With Quote
    Jun 11, 2022 | 06:26 86
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Some major commodities showing significant cash price breakdowns recently as recessionary pressures deepen. Lumber prices are now nearly in free fall. Dr. Copper appears in sickbay. Spot natural gas prices now in-decline.
    Sure things are declining. Gas at the pumps is 2.07 a liter. Reply With Quote
    Jun 11, 2022 | 07:59 87
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Also zeros establishment means zero crop insurance….. something to think about
    Canola crop being lost everyday
    Shipped out nearly 80 bags today of canola for reseed … it’s June 10 tomorrow
    I agree that there is canola being lost every day. Friend is reseeding just about all of his due to frost, flea Beatles and dampening off. He started yesterday June 10th. and that is only one that I have heard about. Better pray for a late fall and have a swather ready. We are in a dry area so who knows how far this crop will last. Reply With Quote
    Jun 11, 2022 | 10:40 88
    Quote Originally Posted by AC man View Post
    I agree that there is canola being lost every day. Friend is reseeding just about all of his due to frost, flea Beatles and dampening off. He started yesterday June 10th. and that is only one that I have heard about. Better pray for a late fall and have a swather ready. We are in a dry area so who knows how far this crop will last.
    Yes it is a very unfortunate situation
    Anything sprayed for beetles promptly after frosts here has recovered and has a chance at least
    Last edited by furrowtickler; Jun 11, 2022 at 10:43.
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    Jun 11, 2022 | 11:10 89
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Some major commodities showing significant cash price breakdowns recently as recessionary pressures deepen. Lumber prices are now nearly in free fall. Dr. Copper appears in sickbay. Spot natural gas prices now in-decline.
    Food and fuel are everyday necessities. It’s draining peoples income dramatically for more than anything else daily Reply With Quote
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  • Jun 11, 2022 | 11:32 90
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Food and fuel are everyday necessities. It’s draining peoples income dramatically for more than anything else daily
    The slowdown in consumer spending right now is amazing. This is already a deep recession. It will take the government 6 months to figure this out and central bankers . . . good grief!

    But retailers are already sensing this storm and in-preparation. There will be layoffs as consumer spending is now in stall mode.

    Academia decision makers can't match the speed or react correctly to avoid this fallout. And the brunt of this economic storm is apt to hit in 2023 (in my view). Inflation will be in real trouble, long before then. Big discounts ahead.

    Apologies for sounding so pissy right now, but this fallout can be seen from a mile away . . . and the damage is already done from poor central bank policy creating this mess . . . . Reply With Quote