Test Inflation’s Collapse Test

Commodity Marketing

Tools

Inflation’s Collapse

Test
Mar 5, 2022 | 05:03 31 Gold $1972.90 at close March 4, 2022. Yep, looks like deflation to me. Hmmm Reply With Quote
Mar 5, 2022 | 10:13 32 Oil price shock will fast-track the incoming global recession. U.S. Fed hinting this week rate, hikes may be pushed off. We’ll see, mid-March announcement.

To me, 100 percent probability of recession (it’s just the degree-of-severity now and what markets call the setback).

Can central banks catch up to-the-times quick enough. Do they have an impact anyway?

My opinion, not shared by many. Reply With Quote

  • Mar 5, 2022 | 20:21 33 U.S. mortgage rates actually dropped this week.

    A drop in the U.S. 10-year treasuries to a 6-week low is said to be the reason. 30 year mortgage rates dropped from 4.19 to 3.9 percent this past week.

    Russia conflict and uncertainty is likely the real reason . . . . Reply With Quote
    Mar 6, 2022 | 07:35 34 Watched a Russian drive to 3 different gasoline stations in Russia. He figured around $.50/liter US for gas. 92 octane.
    North America is getting to be a sad place for taxes.
    Will Sask party drop pst seeing how commodities are crazy high? Or just keep putting screws to tax payers. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Mar 7, 2022 | 10:17 35 Hyperinflation of commodities without a doubt.
    But how can it not end in recession?

    How can they continue with the great green reset with the the commodities hyperinflated and susidies required to make it float?
    Surely the run up in inflation will eventually kill the rapid expansion in the money supply? Why print more if it buys less?
    Last edited by shtferbrains; Mar 7, 2022 at 10:24.
    Reply With Quote
    Mar 7, 2022 | 14:45 36 Interesting thread. For myself unless i am not getting it, I see very high inflation in so many things. I know of a few guys that refuse to lock in inputs for this spring as they feel they are too high and will drop. We will see. Glyphosate bought a year ago cost me $5532 for a 1000 Litre tote. The same tote today costs $14298. As a recreational hunter and shooter, anything firearm, ammo or reloading related has been on a huge increase. We all know about land, food and fuel cost increases. Maybe we will see deflation on stuff people realize they don't need in today's worlds. I see farmers going to auctions and paying unheard of prices for 30- and 40-year-old tractors because they don't want to pay the price on newer iron. It is sad that we don't have national leadership that could see that we should be see that we should be set up to service the world appetite that is high for so much of we produce whether it be from agriculture, oil, gas, mining or forestry. I see the markets today are thinking about the prospect of the Ukraine not getting a crop in. Would you plant if you thought Ivan might seize what you grew for war reparations like they did in WW2? I think this Ukraine thing just threw the S/U ratios out the window for another year at least. As a simple farmers just growing crops for people to buy I feel this could be the worst of times or the best of times for the next year. Reply With Quote

  • Mar 7, 2022 | 14:54 37 ADM Lloyd , commodity canola , sep/oct/dec-$20.13
    Last edited by caseih; Mar 7, 2022 at 19:44.
    Reply With Quote
    Mar 7, 2022 | 16:35 38 The reality of the current crisis is that prices are rising for some commodities and collapsing for others. For example, it's almost to the point where you cannot give away Russian crude while simultaneously European consumers are going to go bankrupt heating their homes. This is the reality of severe economic dislocation.

    Rising wheat prices are great if you only look at one side of the ledger. Rising costs for fertilizer and fuel are going to eat up margins. For that reason, it's better to focus on profit margins. I don't think this crisis is going to be positive for margins, especially if the B of C follows through with more interest rate hikes. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Mar 7, 2022 | 16:37 39
    Quote Originally Posted by Rareearth View Post
    So Govt wants to raise interest rates , isnt this counter to what your thinking?

    Will interest rates go negative?
    They will, but it will take a bit of time. Probably within the year for Canada. It make take a bank going wobbly to do it. Reply With Quote
    Mar 7, 2022 | 16:45 40 Selling your gold to buy wheat has paid a decent return.

    The easy money of this trade appears to have been made.

    Name:  GOLD_ZW1!_2022-03-07_16-29-10.jpg
Views: 1492
Size:  16.5 KB

    https://klarenbachgrainreport.substack.com/publish Reply With Quote
    Mar 7, 2022 | 16:52 41 Interesting article from David Rosenberg this morning entitled;

    Bank of Canada will have to 'kill the economy' to crush inflation.

    Well, the 'kill the economy' appears well on-the-way . . . . Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Mar 10, 2022 | 10:36 42 Are the panicked buying price highs in for oil, wheat and gold?

    May Chicago / KC wheat off 20% from Monday highs. May MWE off about 15%. Crude oil could break $100 per barrel should OPEC budge on production? Gold swaying both sides of $2,000 . . . . Reply With Quote
    Mar 10, 2022 | 10:48 43 Interesting graph when you think of who is / was in power in the US the past 4-5 years ...


    BYW this started long before the Ukrainian situation that government and media are going to try to blame it on .
    Last edited by furrowtickler; Mar 10, 2022 at 10:55.
    Reply With Quote
    Mar 10, 2022 | 10:52 44 Be interesting to see a Canadian version the past 10 years Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Mar 10, 2022 | 12:09 45
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Interesting graph when you think of who is / was in power in the US the past 4-5 years ...


    BYW this started long before the Ukrainian situation that government and media are going to try to blame it on .
    That is a great chart.

    The green lines are energy and drop below the line when Trump encouraged FF exploration and fracking bring down the cost of living in a buoyant economy.
    Rapidly moved to the negative side with build back better theme. Reply With Quote
    May 2, 2022 | 09:17 46 Global economies clearly recessionary. Triggering commodity price meltdown . . . now in-progress.

    Gold to crude oil to copper to lumber, even veg oils. Global urea prices appear now in-decline. Clear peak in inflation (in my view). Housing is a sitting duck as so-called housing shortage turns into a surplus likely in 2nd half of 2022.

    Fed may be double thinking their 3/4% rate hike chatter talked about for May . . . .

    Gov't policy and economies now in-a-skid . . . . Reply With Quote
    May 2, 2022 | 09:52 47 Bank of Canada warning of 200 basis point rise in interest rates this month. That’ll be a big Whammy.
    Last edited by sumdumguy; May 2, 2022 at 09:53. Reason: Adding text
    Reply With Quote
    May 2, 2022 | 10:48 48
    Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
    Bank of Canada warning of 200 basis point rise in interest rates this month. That’ll be a big Whammy.
    Central bank policy is quite lost right now . . . Out-of-step with markets and reality. Reply With Quote
    fjlip's Avatar May 2, 2022 | 19:39 49 WEF plan right on track ...RUIN the economies...Interest will nail coffin shut. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • May 4, 2022 | 07:24 50
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Central bank policy is quite lost right now . . . Out-of-step with markets and reality.
    Henry Hub natural gas price is up to $8.33 USD today. Inflation is alive and well! Reply With Quote
    May 12, 2022 | 12:35 51 Gold appears to be in the midst of a $200 per oz meltdown. Recent highs of $1,975 per oz on the June contract tested $1,830 per oz today. Major chart support seen @ $1,775 per oz. This is a major signal that inflationary pressures have now peaked . . . . Reply With Quote
    May 12, 2022 | 13:58 52 I like Errol's assessment.

    Here are some charts for consideration.

    10 Year T-Note Futures catching a bounce at a historical key level.

    Name:  ZN1!_2022-05-12_13-38-26.jpg
Views: 769
Size:  14.3 KB


    The 20+ Year Treasury Bond/S&P500 ratio represented by TLT/SPY is looking interesting as well.

    Perhaps, the smart money is moving to Bonds?

    Take a look at what happened following the break of the blue trendline in Feb 2020.

    Consider the length of this current trendline in relation to the blue Feb 2020 one.

    This party could just be getting started.

    Name:  TLT_SPY_2022-05-12_13-55-44.jpg
Views: 771
Size:  17.2 KB Reply With Quote
    May 13, 2022 | 06:43 53 Will Elon Musk go from the richest man in the world to nearly bankrupt? The fallout has definitely begun . . . Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar May 13, 2022 | 07:21 54 He and his brother sold $40B of stock last fall during the tesla mania. He will be ok.

    But Tesla wont. Its a zero potentially but likely to be pieced off and bought by the big 3.

    EVs are uneconomical at the best of times, with higher rates commodity shortages and spiking prices and supply chain chaos, they are a money sucker.

    But errol, CPI print will be double digits next month. Havent seen the real food and energy inflation yet. Reply With Quote
    May 13, 2022 | 08:48 55 Elon has put Twitter purchase on hold supposedly over the number of fake accounts, but I wonder if it is just an excuse in order to get out of the deal? Reply With Quote
    May 13, 2022 | 08:50 56
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    He and his brother sold $40B of stock last fall during the tesla mania. He will be ok.

    But Tesla wont. Its a zero potentially but likely to be pieced off and bought by the big 3.

    EVs are uneconomical at the best of times, with higher rates commodity shortages and spiking prices and supply chain chaos, they are a money sucker.

    But errol, CPI print will be double digits next month. Havent seen the real food and energy inflation yet.
    Wage inflation is just ramping up.

    Diesel record high and rocketing.

    Higher intrest rate commitments.

    More graft than ever before.

    I don't know what you call it, but it's going to be a dirty one.
    Last edited by shtferbrains; May 13, 2022 at 09:06.
    Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar May 13, 2022 | 08:59 57
    Quote Originally Posted by Taiga View Post
    Elon has put Twitter purchase on hold supposedly over the number of fake accounts, but I wonder if it is just an excuse in order to get out of the deal?
    Deep state started a short attack on Tesla. Reply With Quote
    May 13, 2022 | 09:09 58
    Quote Originally Posted by Taiga View Post
    Elon has put Twitter purchase on hold supposedly over the number of fake accounts, but I wonder if it is just an excuse in order to get out of the deal?
    Twitter claimed 5% or less, were fake accounts.

    If it turns out that 20-25 or 30% are fake, Elon won't have to pay the full amount.

    Elon, not gonna pay for fake accounts.

    What if it turns out that 50% of Twitter accounts are fake/bots? Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • May 14, 2022 | 08:26 59 Here's an article addressing just what I'd mentioned about fake accounts and bot accounts.

    Advertisers may sue, due to the fraudulent numbers Twitter had stated to them.

    https://www.breitbart.com/economy/20...ney-elon-musk/ Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • jazz's Avatar May 24, 2022 | 19:01 60 The fact that the fed has been so tepid on raising interest rates leads me to believe inflation will be coming down and they know it.

    Consumer has cut back big time. Reply With Quote