Since everyone figures inflation is actually here, I've put some thought into this with the rising USD and rising commodities and supply chain disruptions, it really looks like inflation. However single dimensional analysis is typically a grand method of blowing your brains out, so what's missing? Bonds, interest rates, and ROI. Bonds and rates are being manipulated, in the sense that if the fed raises rates, or any other CB chairman for that matter, they will be politically relocated to North Battleford, SK for psychiatric evaluation and possible imprisonment, and cause a contagion of increased rates in rest of world. The flavor of the day is more govt debt. If ANY western country raises rates, Turkey is not included because they are as close to Venezuela status as possible atm, it'll create a capital influx of giant proportion. (Think ROI and money regulated to hold bonds). I just had a look at the yen, now that's the closest chart I've seen to canola, long term, prior to breakout as I can find, as far as structure is concerned. What's Japan got to do with this? Well it's #2 in weighting on the US dollar index, remember USD is a composite of numerous other currencies not the actual currency itself. Make sense? It's an inverse of everyone's currency except their own..... I have no idea why it was designed like this but if you don't understand what you are looking at, well your phucked. It's not an actual "vote" on the USA, they get this because they hold "reserve currency" status. So it doesn't matter how much you like or hate them, this is the world we live in. Back to yen. Japan has suppressed rates and applied more political manipulation than any other country in the world until the last 18 months. They suppressed rates artificially low and the central bank bought ALL the govt debt. So they are holding "first in" status. This is what Canada, Europe, and USA are following at present. "We" Can,EU,US looked at this and said "hey its working" I'm gonna borrow a trillion, cuz is fun buying votes. But here's the sticker, in an environment where bonds and rates are manipulated, in a 6 sided circle, eventually something gives, the relief valve. It's leaking thru currency, not a lot at the moment, but the euro is under long term support at 112. The yen is devaluing, CAD/AUD are snorting blow off strippers asses because commodities are going up(because comds are priced in US$). Eur is 60% of DX, yen is 25%~, the remainder is GBP,CAD, Swedish.... all carrying a 10%~ weighting excluding €&¥. Please google US dollar index for full detail. Anyhooo, there's three versions of inflation and in my opinion, today, we are in currency inflation, due to commodities being priced in USD by default. This has more to do with the suppression of rates than actual inflation. And this explains how we can have rising USD and rising commodity prices. The traditional inverse is BROKEN, but central banks have never before had on their hands when they targeted 2% inflation and its currently 6+.
Do something you phucking idiots, unless you are in a corner and crying like a little biotch. It's your mess and you let politicians and drama teachers tell you what to do. My rant to CB's. This is why you hire the most qualified, not based on equity. Canada needs more Trudeau because it devalues the currency, increases the value of my commodities and hard assets while diminishing the value of "promises" ie pensions and debt obligations. Those that trust govt the most are being hurt the most, regardless of country of origin. Every gain is being leveraged on this end into USD priced assets. Borrow in loonies and payback with USD is a no Brainer. It's the inverse of the trend every world govt has used since 2008. If commods rise after USD hits 103, likely year end,(look at cycle count, for those that count up and down days/weeks/months/quarters/years) I might be slightly right and reserve the right to say I'm wrong. Just a dumb phuvking farmer in Northern SK thinking while rebuilding a polaris 800 sled engine.
Edit. 3x on the 800
Do something you phucking idiots, unless you are in a corner and crying like a little biotch. It's your mess and you let politicians and drama teachers tell you what to do. My rant to CB's. This is why you hire the most qualified, not based on equity. Canada needs more Trudeau because it devalues the currency, increases the value of my commodities and hard assets while diminishing the value of "promises" ie pensions and debt obligations. Those that trust govt the most are being hurt the most, regardless of country of origin. Every gain is being leveraged on this end into USD priced assets. Borrow in loonies and payback with USD is a no Brainer. It's the inverse of the trend every world govt has used since 2008. If commods rise after USD hits 103, likely year end,(look at cycle count, for those that count up and down days/weeks/months/quarters/years) I might be slightly right and reserve the right to say I'm wrong. Just a dumb phuvking farmer in Northern SK thinking while rebuilding a polaris 800 sled engine.
Edit. 3x on the 800
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