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jazz's Avatar Oct 12, 2021 | 08:20 31 What could the ESG loons do for an encore? I know, lets get doctors and nurses involved in energy policy. They were so great with that medical tyranny and daily shaming for covid.

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Oct 12, 2021 | 09:00 32
Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
Maybe not a bad plan , get out before the Liberals steal thing you have taken a life time to achieve
My buddy cashed out this spring , auction here in November. He was tired of this b/s before , and it’s way worse now .
Got himself a very nice place at the lake , debts paid off and not worried at all anymore of being held hostage by input companies and getting screwed at the line companies.

We are going try to ride this out , good or bad , my heart and soul not ready to quit and my nephew is all in and deserves a shot . It will be difficult, but willing to fight to keep this farm out forefathers started well over a century ago from scratch with nothing for a better life . We can get by by being frugal for now , done it before and made it through . You don’t need 150lbs of N to grow a crop , we proved that to ourselves and have done very well . This year hurts but there are many ways to skin a cat or grow a crop by thinking outside the box and ignoring the input dealers maximum crop growing strategies . They fail more than they help even on average years .

The best right now would be for everyone to just walk away for the next year , and let these shortages choke on themselves. I strongly believe that at least 50% of this is made up b/s as an excuse to capture every last penny from the farmers to feed this swollen top heavy ag industry.
It wouldn't be good to call it quits before you are truly ready, your farm is a part of you and your family.

It sounds like your nephew is wanting to keep the farm in the family name.

You and more than likely his father or who ever is involved just have to continue to give him a good leg up so one day he can take the reins in the future.

Stepping back slowly in the upcoming years will give you time to fish and relax.

Just my thoughts! Reply With Quote
Oct 12, 2021 | 13:38 33 Quick glance at the loonie and this thing could see 90 cents Reply With Quote
Oct 12, 2021 | 14:40 34
Quote Originally Posted by macdon02 View Post
Quick glance at the loonie and this thing could see 90 cents
Following oil up? No other reasons I can think of, certainly not our government or deficits. Reply With Quote
Oct 12, 2021 | 14:47 35
Quote Originally Posted by foragefarmer View Post
It wouldn't be good to call it quits before you are truly ready, your farm is a part of you and your family.

It sounds like your nephew is wanting to keep the farm in the family name.

You and more than likely his father or who ever is involved just have to continue to give him a good leg up so one day he can take the reins in the future.

Stepping back slowly in the upcoming years will give you time to fish and relax.

Just my thoughts!
All part of the plan for sometime yup Reply With Quote
Oct 12, 2021 | 22:05 36
Quote Originally Posted by macdon02 View Post
Quick glance at the loonie and this thing could see 90 cents
Time frame? I'm looking at 1 year + at this trajectory Reply With Quote
Oct 12, 2021 | 23:00 37
Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
Time frame? I'm looking at 1 year + at this trajectory


Best i can do from a tractor seat. But yes, we are on same page. I'll do a post when things slow down or snow flies, whichever comes first. Could still see a test of support, Nov shows a direction change. But im getting bullish rather then bearish and it's all commodity based. Looks like we'll be pumping oil for some time yet. Reply With Quote

  • Oct 13, 2021 | 07:39 38 The jump in oil prices may eventually just run out-of-steam. The current oil rally is living on borrowed time as global producers have the ability to flood the market with supply . . . quickly. A break below $70 per barrel would take very little to achieve, if market hype begins to stroke out.

    If crude breaks, there may be a general downward wave in global commodity prices. Overall, inflationary pressures will likely subside as economies slow. Some sectors may feel incoming price reductions (deflation). Timing of this is difficult . . . but the writing is on-the-wall (IMO). Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar Oct 13, 2021 | 08:03 39 errol, CPI was up again today with no end in sight. Big energy and food and shelter increases will continue to seep in and with some $3.5T in spending from Brandon coming, inflationary is the dominant trend right now. Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 13, 2021 | 08:08 40
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    errol, CPI was up again today with no end in sight. Big energy and food and shelter increases will continue to seep in and with some $3.5T in spending from Brandon coming, inflationary is the dominant trend right now.
    jazz, yes dominant trend for now . . . Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar Oct 13, 2021 | 08:17 41
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    jazz, yes dominant trend for now . . .
    errol, imho, everything will go through a hard reverse at some point. A crash will be the thing to revert all prices back to the mean. The only question is what that catalyst is and when it happens.

    even if the govt floods in trillions for infrastructure, that will take years to get off the ground.

    I would argue we are near the point of another recession. Reply With Quote
    Oct 13, 2021 | 08:36 42
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    errol, imho, everything will go through a hard reverse at some point. A crash will be the thing to revert all prices back to the mean. The only question is what that catalyst is and when it happens.

    even if the govt floods in trillions for infrastructure, that will take years to get off the ground.

    I would argue we are near the point of another recession.

    Commodity prices simply can't hold for the long-haul in this worsening global environment. Inflation to me is totally transitory. Government debt and spending is beyond ridiculous . . . . There are serious cracks surfacing in many sectors, but the market is pretending that inflation is A-OK and be prepared for more. Reply With Quote
    Oct 13, 2021 | 08:51 43
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Commodity prices simply can't hold for the long-haul in this worsening global environment. Inflation to me is totally transitory. Government debt and spending is beyond ridiculous . . . . There are serious cracks surfacing in many sectors, but the market is pretending that inflation is A-OK and be prepared for more.
    Except, the other side of that coin is that inflation is the ONLY way the ridiculous government debt and spending can be sustained. They are, and will do whatever they can to keep the party going. How long will they be sucessful, is another story. Reply With Quote
    Oct 13, 2021 | 09:04 44
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Will this change the lofty oil price projections ...

    https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-eu-line-up-over-20-more-countries-global-methane-pact-2021-10-11/

    Also livestock are going to be targeted. This has been in the works a while but Canada just jumped all in officially now.
    Worth a hyperlink, furrow -

    https://www.reuters.com/business/env...ct-2021-10-11/

    So India and China, with over 1/3 of the earth's population, seem a bit reluctant to get on board with the massive production cuts needed in every necessary, essential commodity to "maybe" make a tiny impact on the climate.

    It's almost as if they foresee the consequence of starving a mass of almost 3,000,000,000 people...

    Why is it that only Western nations are willing to sacrifice their people to the climate gods?

    What is the "rationale", if we may use that term in this context? Reply With Quote

  • Oct 13, 2021 | 09:20 45
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Commodity prices simply can't hold for the long-haul in this worsening global environment. Inflation to me is totally transitory. Government debt and spending is beyond ridiculous . . . . There are serious cracks surfacing in many sectors, but the market is pretending that inflation is A-OK and be prepared for more.

    The idea that inflation was transitory was lie, I called it many months ago. Inflation is the expansion of the money supply. Price increases are the symptom. Central banks used their last tool, jawboning, all while the printing press goes brrrrrrr. Raise rates and the economy implodes in series of cascading defaults or keep real rates deeply negative like they are and experience a melt up. Either way the fiat monetary experiment is on its last legs. Let them eat paper, commodities cannot be printed.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ra...was-transitory
    Last edited by biglentil; Oct 13, 2021 at 09:24.
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  • jazz's Avatar Oct 13, 2021 | 09:29 46 errol has a good handle on supply demand dynamics but I feel he doesnt account for the federal reserve and the layer of endless govt regulations being forced on us disguised as policy but probably closer to great reset ambitions.

    Personally, I think the govt wants sky high oil without real alternatives. They have had 25 yrs to build solar panels and still havent. More like the goal is energy poverty. Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 13, 2021 | 09:45 47
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    errol has a good handle on supply demand dynamics but I feel he doesnt account for the federal reserve and the layer of endless govt regulations being forced on us disguised as policy but probably closer to great reset ambitions.

    Personally, I think the govt wants sky high oil without real alternatives. They have had 25 yrs to build solar panels and still havent. More like the goal is energy poverty.
    Of course, all in the name of climate change. The promise of a panacea of the green economy all while knowing full well it will improvish the many. Build Back Better not for you or I.

    Thing is Errol may very well be right there may be a deflationary debt spiral of a crash coming. Then they can claim it was due to the failure of capitalism and a lack of central planning. I highly doubt such an event will be a buying opportunity for those holding cash. At such a time physical commodities may be nearly unobtainium. In a world of infinite paper and failing economies physical goods are king.
    Last edited by biglentil; Oct 13, 2021 at 10:01.
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  • Oct 13, 2021 | 09:59 48
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    errol has a good handle on supply demand dynamics but I feel he doesnt account for the federal reserve and the layer of endless govt regulations being forced on us disguised as policy but probably closer to great reset ambitions.

    Personally, I think the govt wants sky high oil without real alternatives. They have had 25 yrs to build solar panels and still havent. More like the goal is energy poverty.
    The U.S. Federal Reserve is running out of firepower very quickly. Money printing simply doesn't have the same jam anymore and the Fed knows it. That's why they want to slow the printing presses in 2022. It doesn't work anymore. Now stir in the ridiculous U.S. debt ceiling fiasco . . . .

    And when reality strikes, the downside risk is immense, courtesy of central banks artificially supporting equity valuations well beyond. But investors are convinced (and have been conditioned) they are in a protected investment cocoon. Reply With Quote
    Oct 13, 2021 | 10:04 49
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    The U.S. Federal Reserve is running out of firepower very quickly. Money printing simply doesn't have the same jam anymore and the Fed knows it. That's why they want to slow the printing presses in 2022. It doesn't work anymore. Now stir in the ridiculous U.S. debt ceiling fiasco . . . .

    And when reality strikes, the downside risk is immense, courtesy of central banks artificially supporting equity valuations well beyond. But investors are convinced (and have been conditioned) they are in a protected investment cocoon.
    Errol market implodes, wheels come off the supply chain and you buy what?

    If 2008 is any guide the bail outs will be immense. Since then Trudeau put legislation that allowed for bail ins. If you are heavily in cash be prepared for a significant haircut right off the top of your savings account.
    Last edited by biglentil; Oct 13, 2021 at 10:09.
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    Oct 13, 2021 | 10:08 50
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    Errol market implodes, wheels come off the supply chain and you buy what?
    Instant deflation . . . demand rules, not supply Reply With Quote
    Oct 13, 2021 | 10:14 51
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Instant deflation . . . demand rules, not supply
    What we are seeing is that the supply side of the equation is just as important or maybe more so than the demand side. We live on a finite planet and supply of physical commodities are not easily ramped up. Mines take 15 years from discovery to production on average. Goods only come into existence 2 ways they are either mined or grown. Whether it's copper, zinc or oil the grades and return on energy invested has been on the decline for many years now.
    The low hanging fruit has been picked so to speak. Then tack on the regulatory and environmental hurdles and nothing gets produced. I was told by a higher up at Enbridge that we will never see a new pipeline built again. Line 3 replacement I was paid for 6 years ago is still being blocked on the US side.

    Money supply is growing many multiples faster than productivity.
    Last edited by biglentil; Oct 13, 2021 at 10:41.
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  • jazz's Avatar Oct 13, 2021 | 11:37 52 Eric Nuttall

    https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/eric-nuttall-oil-investors-stand-vindicated-but-theres-no-time-for-a-victory-lap-heres-the-energy-playbook-for-the-rest-of-the-year

    If I’m right that we will hit all-time high oil prices in the next two to three years, leading to a multi-year bull market, then the performance that we have seen so far is just the beginning and will lift all boats. Yet, there are times to be a bit more tactical in anticipating where the likely new funds flow will come from and where they are likely to go so as to maximize performance. Reply With Quote
    Oct 13, 2021 | 12:43 53
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Eric Nuttall

    https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/eric-nuttall-oil-investors-stand-vindicated-but-theres-no-time-for-a-victory-lap-heres-the-energy-playbook-for-the-rest-of-the-year

    If I’m right that we will hit all-time high oil prices in the next two to three years, leading to a multi-year bull market, then the performance that we have seen so far is just the beginning and will lift all boats. Yet, there are times to be a bit more tactical in anticipating where the likely new funds flow will come from and where they are likely to go so as to maximize performance.
    I think Eric is right, Errol your pessimism on oil in my opinion isn’t warranted. As an example I was reading an article this morning about how European countries believe the answer is to double down on renewable energy as a response to high fossil fuel prices. So therefore less money will continue to be spent on oil and gas exploration guaranteeing a continued appreciation in prices. Governments are all collectively virtue signalling and won’t change coarse! Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 13, 2021 | 14:47 54
    Quote Originally Posted by Hamloc View Post
    I think Eric is right, Errol your pessimism on oil in my opinion isn’t warranted. As an example I was reading an article this morning about how European countries believe the answer is to double down on renewable energy as a response to high fossil fuel prices. So therefore less money will continue to be spent on oil and gas exploration guaranteeing a continued appreciation in prices. Governments are all collectively virtue signalling and won’t change coarse!
    While the alternative energies may make no sense at all where we live.. I do understand why Germany and their neighborhood would be willing to try any and everything to wean themselves off of Russian or Middle Eastern supplies of fossil fuels, which they are otherwise entirely reliant on.
    Unfortunately for them it has been a spectacular and grossly expensive failure. But might yet be better than the alternative of being held hostage by malicious regimes for 100% of their energy needs. Price and reliability may be irrelevant if there are no other options.
    But why we would willingly choose to follow them down this insane path is quite another question. Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 14, 2021 | 06:26 55

    Cheap renewable energy.... from 2020 before the run up in oil to be blamed on Reply With Quote
    Oct 14, 2021 | 07:14 56 So the only reason electricity prices rose in Europe is because of renewables? And how do you know that?

    There are 29 countries in the list with a wide range of generation sources, taxes, and system infrastructure in each country.

    When I looked at the Saskpower farm rate over several years it had gone up about 3% per year on average. Saskpower is only adding relatively small amounts of renewables and their regulated rate rose about 30% over 10 years and is still much cheaper than the deregulated farm rates in Alberta.

    So your chart is pretty much useless when it comes to understanding what is causing electricity prices to rise because the rises are very specific to each utility or country and generation costs are only a portion of total electricity costs.

    But don't let that stop you from blaming it all on renewables.
    Last edited by chuckChuck; Oct 14, 2021 at 07:22.
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    jazz's Avatar Oct 14, 2021 | 07:42 57 Guess we have to explain it to chuck. Lets see, invest in unicorns, get pain. Simple as that.

    Europe was the idiot green leader in the climate farce. Stopped oil and gas, shut down nuclear, spent trillons on solar and wind thats now idle and now having to go to Mr Putin for survival.

    Sounds like the same stupidity our Pm Blackface wants to try.

    There is NOTHING on this planet other than nuclear that will ever power our economy and basic necessities. Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 14, 2021 | 07:45 58 https://www.ft.com/content/f37d2a36-4609-4b3e-9795-064b6d459676

    From the Financial Times

    The EU’s electricity market and why soaring gas prices are driving bills higher

    Why is the price of electricity rising?

    The average European household electricity bill is broken down into costs for taxes and VAT (about 35 per cent), network operator costs (30 per cent), and the unit cost of energy (about 35 per cent), according to figures from the EU’s Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER).

    At the heart of complaints from some countries is the EU’s energy pricing system. It operates on a common “pay as you clear” model where wholesale electricity costs reflect the price of the last unit of energy bought via auctions held in member states.

    Generally gas is the fuel that is needed to make sure enough energy is supplied to meet demand.

    So even in countries such as France — where cheaper nuclear power provides about 70 per cent of electricity — gas is still driving the wholesale electric price. And as the gas price has soared, so has the price of electricity.

    Who benefits from how the market works?

    The EU’s energy market has helped to bring down prices across Europe since the late 1990s by accelerating a shift away from long-term contracts for fossil fuels such as oil to less carbon-intensive natural gas and renewables bought on spot markets.

    Because prices are based on shifting supply and demand dynamics, Europe has even experienced negative prices — most notably during the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 — when supply massively outweighed falling demand. Between 2019 and 2020, Europe’s households experienced a 20 per cent fall in the cost of gas, according to figures from Eurostat.

    Jan Cornillie, research associate at the European University Institute, said the EU’s energy market had “delivered very low prices for years” but a confluence of recent factors — largely outside the control of policymakers — mean that “this is among the first times it is not working in our favour”. Reply With Quote
    Oct 14, 2021 | 07:48 59 Blame game , the EU had the highest electricity costs well before oil prices went up . Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar Oct 14, 2021 | 07:50 60 Oh and how much money will Canada miss out by not having TMX and EE and Keystone online and all those LNG projects our Prime Retard cancelled? Probably enough to pay off our debt. We could be tankering it all to China and the EU now.

    Good job ESG loons. Get woke go broke. Reply With Quote