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Oct 2, 2021 | 21:52
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In the past ten (10) days, the cost of shipping a container between China and the U.S. has been reported cut in-half from $15,000 to $8,000. Why? Lack of demand from China.
Is inflation transitory? You betcha (IMO) . . . .
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Oct 2, 2021 | 22:07
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So are these shortages then the result of suppliers holding up inventory to create tight supplies?
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Oct 2, 2021 | 22:09
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 Originally Posted by errolanderson
In the past ten (10) days, the cost of shipping a container between China and the U.S. has been reported cut in-half from $15,000 to $8,000. Why? Lack of demand from China.
Is inflation transitory? You betcha (IMO) . . . .
Lack of energy cutting production. They have no electricity to produce goods.
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Oct 2, 2021 | 22:11
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Oct 3, 2021 | 05:52
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Does everyone think China's pissing match with Australia over coal has come back to haunt them ?
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Oct 3, 2021 | 08:27
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Originally Posted by macdon02
Lack of energy cutting production. They have no electricity to produce goods.
So in this scenario the cost of energy and goods continue to rise because of lack of supply. Errol I do see potential for lower economic performance but the value of goods will remain high for a while yet imo.
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Oct 3, 2021 | 08:41
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Originally Posted by Hamloc
So in this scenario the cost of energy and goods continue to rise because of lack of supply. Errol I do see potential for lower economic performance but the value of goods will remain high for a while yet imo.
Yes, believe so . . . . But what may happen is we all begin to see cracks in-the-armour. Iron ore collapse started the fallout. And one by one, we will start to see commodity prices fail. Energy is unpredictable, but not from a lack of supply. but from a lack of transportation. Shortage of truckers. Real estate is a sitting duck (IMO).
Asia financial fallout is real. Their buying led us up, their lack-of-buying will lead us down . . . .
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Oct 3, 2021 | 08:41
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IMHO not a lack of anything. The logistics have collapsed. Too many people sitting at home retired or not interested in working.
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Oct 11, 2021 | 12:04
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The cost of shipping continues to drop . . . .
More signs of easing. Shanghai-to-Los Angeles trade route, the rate
for a 40-foot container sank by another $1,000 last week toward
$11,000, more than a 8% drop from the prior week. This is now the steepest
weekly fall since March 2020.
Ocean freight is still several times more expensive than it
was pre-pandemic. So are these latest declines in global shipping
marking a plateau, a seasonal turn lower or start of a steeper correction?
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Oct 11, 2021 | 16:08
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Originally Posted by shtferbrains
IMHO not a lack of anything. The logistics have collapsed. Too many people sitting at home retired or not interested in working.
Not interested in working because they were collecting free government money . It’s a cycle that’s nearly ruined certain cultures .
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Nov 4, 2021 | 06:41
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The Baltic Dry Index has now collapsed 50% since early October . . . . Shipping costs are coming down sharply.
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Nov 23, 2021 | 22:11
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China to Long Beach container rates continue to decline. Last heard, container rates around $9,200. Still more than double last year, but well below the insane $20,000 to $24,000 rates heard early fall.
Supply chain congestion now appears clearing stateside. Apparently, getting ship crews totally vacinated when switching ships is still a hold-up.
Inflationary pressures may now be peaking (IMO). Expect base industrial commodity prices to remain under pressure. Fallout in energies now have diesel and gasoline prices in-decline.
Gold and silver have taken heavy hits this week. Some anaysts suggest this is a sign of ebbing inflation. We’ll see . . . .
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Nov 23, 2021 | 23:45
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Originally Posted by errolanderson
China to Long Beach container rates continue to decline. Last heard, container rates around $9,200. Still more than double last year, but well below the insane $20,000 to $24,000 rates heard early fall.
Supply chain congestion now appears clearing stateside. Apparently, getting ship crews totally vacinated when switching ships is still a hold-up.
Inflationary pressures may now be peaking (IMO). Expect base industrial commodity prices to remain under pressure. Fallout in energies now have diesel and gasoline prices in-decline.
Gold and silver have taken heavy hits this week. Some anaysts suggest this is a sign of ebbing inflation. We’ll see . . . .
Would sure be nice to see fertilizer prices take some heavy hits. Absolutely gone off the rails.
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Nov 24, 2021 | 06:39
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Originally Posted by BTO780
Would sure be nice to see fertilizer prices take some heavy hits. Absolutely gone off the rails.
Inflation readings are now coming down. Fertilizer will eventually smell-the-coffee, but it’s going to take time (IMO).
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Nov 24, 2021 | 07:00
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How can inflation drop when our weak leaders think the solution to everthing is print more money and run bigger deficit spending.
Less people working but everybody gets paid.
Unions see thier members wages don't buy as much and ask for big rate increases and get it. Just happened at JD, Cargill meats next?
Shortages of all kinds of things with prices rocketing.
I will give odds inflation will be double digits before spring.
There's your reset.
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Nov 24, 2021 | 07:53
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Originally Posted by shtferbrains
How can inflation drop when our weak leaders think the solution to everthing is print more money and run bigger deficit spending.
Less people working but everybody gets paid.
Unions see thier members wages don't buy as much and ask for big rate increases and get it. Just happened at JD, Cargill meats next?
Shortages of all kinds of things with prices rocketing.
I will give odds inflation will be double digits before spring.
There's your reset.
The pain of debt reconciliation has begun. The anti-inflation tonic . . . .
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Nov 24, 2021 | 08:04
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Originally Posted by BTO780
Would sure be nice to see fertilizer prices take some heavy hits. Absolutely gone off the rails.
Latest price I heard on Urea is $1285 a tonne. Absolutely gone off the rails is right.
No doubt big spending governments in Ottawa and Washington will simply keep inflation going up. I agree that we are now seeing larger wage settlements which will keep inflation going long term. This belief that inflation is temporary is wishful thinking in my opinion..
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Nov 24, 2021 | 08:08
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Originally Posted by errolanderson
The pain of debt reconciliation has begun. The anti-inflation tonic . . . .
Sure hope your right but I don't see it in North America.
Brandon wants 1.8 trillion for a green reset? Run those printing presses.
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Nov 24, 2021 | 10:47
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Once higher wages get baked into the cost of everything, it becomes nearly impossible to roll back the cost of the finished good or service, and these new price levels will become permanent.
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Nov 24, 2021 | 15:28
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U.S. port congestion clearing.
Breaking Port of Los Angeles stats-
Imports down 38%, 9+ day aging containers down 53%
Vessels at anchor stand at 58. All of the above over the past 30 days.
Suspect ocean container rates will continue to fall.
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Nov 24, 2021 | 15:59
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There is another solution, it called modernize.
There is a company called “Boxbay” they have set up a facility at Jebel Ali in Dubai. They have taken robotic, automation to the next level like amazon, Fedex and others have done. Instead of pallets they do it with containers. They have partnered with a German company called SMS.
The system stacks containers within slots in a steel rack ( like pallet racking). It delivers 3 times the capacity of a normal port container yard ( containers stacked on each other traditionally vs new system where each container has a independent slot. This reduces the footprint for the terminals by 70%. They are fully electrified and automated cranes built into the structure where individual containers can be accessed with out moving other containers. The energy cost are 29% lower, and the current structure holds 792 containers at a time.
In the first six months of opperation, performance, reliability, energy consumption goals have been exceeded by far.
“For ports worldwide, this innovative and disruptive technology will dramatically increase through put/handling volumes and container storage capacity.
300% faster,
Www.boxbay.com
Last edited by Rareearth; Nov 24, 2021 at 16:04.
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Jan 31, 2022 | 09:14
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Heads-up . . . The Baltic Dry Index is again plunging. Ships are cheap again.
This is a bearish warning for dry freight commodities.
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Jan 31, 2022 | 09:26
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Shouldn't cheap ocean freight provide support for more import/export?
It's sorta like when the basis narrows at the elevators, that's when I get some business done.
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Jan 31, 2022 | 09:33
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Originally Posted by beaverdam
Shouldn't cheap ocean freight provide support for more import/export?
It's sorta like when the basis narrows at the elevators, that's when I get some business done.
Good point . . . The question may be; Is the plunge in ocean freight a global demand signal?
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Jan 31, 2022 | 09:47
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US grain exports down significantly but the still expect to meet predicted goals?
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Jan 31, 2022 | 11:01
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Originally Posted by shtferbrains
US grain exports down significantly but the still expect to meet predicted goals?
IMO no . . . USDA has been wrong all year.
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Jan 31, 2022 | 12:10
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Was in C-TIRE and WALLYS few days ago shelves still full of stuff. Food ,toys , clothes and electrical. 70" smart tv $850 . Didn't all the retailers say get yer shopping done soon cause of limited supplies everything will run out. They even have there spring stuff out now bikes garden tools, lawn trimming stuff how did that container get here so fast. Can't wait till wife buys more lawn ornaments****** 
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Jan 31, 2022 | 16:10
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Originally Posted by errolanderson
Heads-up . . . The Baltic Dry Index is again plunging. Ships are cheap again.
This is a bearish warning for dry freight commodities.
Just to add a bit of context for perspective.
Since the original post on Oct 2, 2021...
March soybeans are up $2.35/bu (12.55 to 14.90)
March corn is up $.75/bu (5.50 to 6.25)
March wheat is down $.07/bu (7.68 to 7.61)
March canola is up $137/t (876 to 1013)
Worth being aware of but just one piece of the puzzle (IMO).
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Jan 31, 2022 | 19:06
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Originally Posted by TechAnalyst
Just to add a bit of context for perspective.
Since the original post on Oct 2, 2021...
March soybeans are up $2.35/bu (12.55 to 14.90)
March corn is up $.75/bu (5.50 to 6.25)
March wheat is down $.07/bu (7.68 to 7.61)
March canola is up $137/t (876 to 1013)
Worth being aware of but just one piece of the puzzle (IMO).
Demand for ag commodities does not tend to be as elastic as consumer goods, or even industrial commodities. As was pointed out above, if freight rates drop, it makes the commodity cheaper at the other end, or it allows the exporter to pay more at this end.
Farmers are not making and selling widgets.
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Jan 31, 2022 | 22:10
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Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5
Demand for ag commodities does not tend to be as elastic as consumer goods, or even industrial commodities. As was pointed out above, if freight rates drop, it makes the commodity cheaper at the other end, or it allows the exporter to pay more at this end.
Farmers are not making and selling widgets.
Have to have fewer boats hauling short crop.
Might get slower yet.
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