China Evergrande Collapse

[errolanderson]

Why this default is such a big deal . . .

In the U.S, real estate accounts for about 30 percent of consumer wealth.

In China, real estate accounts for 70 percent of consumer wealth. China consumerism has just taken a massive blow.

[shtferbrains]

Why this default is such a big deal . . .

In the U.S, real estate accounts for about 30 percent of consumer wealth.

In China, real estate accounts for 70 percent of consumer wealth. China consumerism has just taken a massive blow.

1.5 million customers have given them deposits on future housing.
The same thing is going on here. As an example around Toronto it is looked at as a easy profit opportunity to put a deposit on a house to be built 3 years in the future to fix the price and flip it prior to being built taking some of the huge appreciation in the housing market.
Too good to be true?
Definently smells like a ponzi.
Might be Evergrande peddling them?

[WiltonRanch]

Think the elephant in the room here is Chinas house of cards cannot stand forever. They have been buying our commodities and shipping manufactured goods back to us at prices lower than what we can but as their standard of living improves and the population ages they lose the advantage of cheap labour, if they haven’t already have. Remember too that the CCP wants to become a world power rather than a local irritant before they get too old. Hence, they subsidize certain industries to outcompete domestic manufacturers in foreign markets to put them out of business. Now, this collapse is merely a symptom of a planned economy experiencing true economics.

[jazz]

Why this default is such a big deal . . .

In the U.S, real estate accounts for about 30 percent of consumer wealth.

In China, real estate accounts for 70 percent of consumer wealth. China consumerism has just taken a massive blow.

Chinas off the books lending through peer to peer networks and shadow banking are an order of magnitude larger than this company.

If it blows, it goes there first.

But we know their entire economy is a ponzi. But ponzis can go on a long time.

[shtferbrains]

Evergrande is active in GTA according to a freind so there is your Canadian connection.

[biglentil]

Commodities have gone parabolic or if nearly everything is rising in price aren't dollars losing purchasing power? Hmm

[errolanderson]

Another Chinese property developer collapsed yesterday afternoon in Hong Kong (dropping a massive 87%) before it was halted.

Shanghai based developer SINIC HOLDINGS HK:2103 is racing with Evergrande to the bottom. Get ready for a banking crisis in HK & China.

[ajl]

The hyperinflationary part of the cycle is likely done as it occurred this spring. The globalist do want to replace the dollar but market forces may intervene. We are lucky this year in that we don't need china to buy any more canola however if production recovers next year could see $8 canola again (imagine that with super high inputs) since china will not be able to buy much as it is broke. China has already resold a lot of $12 canola for $20 including my contract which I delivered yesterday. Debt defaults are deflationary as they make dollars disappear from the system. Next year at this time we could be facing real problems like starvation rather than fake ones like covid and global warming.

[errolanderson]

Errol, sources say Blackrock is the biggest holder of this firm.

The same firm buying up blocks of real estate in the US and runs ETF exchanges.

I suspect a bailout is being prepped.

Jazz, major entry into U.S. markets. More commodity trouble, more equity trouble straight ahead (IMO).

[beaverdam]

https://twitter.com/FabiusMercurius/status/1440411706543407110

[farming101]

The hyperinflationary part of the cycle is likely done as it occurred this spring. The globalist do want to replace the dollar but market forces may intervene. We are lucky this year in that we don't need china to buy any more canola however if production recovers next year could see $8 canola again (imagine that with super high inputs) since china will not be able to buy much as it is broke. China has already resold a lot of $12 canola for $20 including my contract which I delivered yesterday. Debt defaults are deflationary as they make dollars disappear from the system. Next year at this time we could be facing real problems like starvation rather than fake ones like covid and global warming.

r a p e seed spot price is $26.85/bu CAD in China. If they're reselling it, it is on the street in Zhengzhou

Inflation will continue. Dollars lost are easily replaced

[AlbertaFarmer5]

r a p e seed spot price is $26.85/bu CAD in China. If they're reselling it, it is on the street in Zhengzhou

Inflation will continue. Dollars lost are easily replaced

And how does that compare to a normal year? Roughly $7 higher than spot price on the prairies, that should far more than cover freight, and elevation?

[farming101]

And how does that compare to a normal year? Roughly $7 higher than spot price on the prairies, that should far more than cover freight, and elevation?

Below is a chart comparing the Canola 5 year futures to China futures market. Canola in blue, left hand scale. Canola in CAD. Note the China data is an indicator only. Hardly traded. Should all be in USD to screen out currency fluctuations
Sorry for going off thread topic.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Below is a chart comparing the Canola 5 year futures to China futures market. Canola in blue, left hand scale. Canola in CAD. Note the China data is an indicator only. Hardly traded. Should all be in USD to screen out currency fluctuations
Sorry for going off thread topic.
[ATTACH]8702[/ATTACH]

Thanks for that. So without working out the currency differences over this period, it appears that the blue line only briefly goes above the black over the past 5 years. We are above now, so likely not competitive, unless their futures go up as well.

[farming101]

Thanks for that. So without working out the currency differences over this period, it appears that the blue line only briefly goes above the black over the past 5 years. We are above now, so likely not competitive, unless their futures go up as well.

AS you noted in post #27 it should still arbitrage. Just not as lucrative