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jazz's Avatar Sep 1, 2021 | 13:03 31
Quote Originally Posted by Rareearth View Post
And why would the BOC raise interest rates?
The bank of canada like many central banks are printing money on one side of the ledger and lending it into the govt and banking system which strokes inflation if it doesnt go into productive assets. On the other hand they are buy MBS to keep rates low and provincial bonds because investors dont want our risky debt anymore and Canadians are broke.

Eventually that juggling act has to end. Canada does not have reserve currency nor are we under an economic union like the EU. Reply With Quote
Sep 3, 2021 | 06:57 32 Big jobs miss released this morning . . . . U.S. job creation for August was a huge disappointment, with the economy adding just 235,000 positions, Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 720,000 new hires. Somehow, U.S. unemployment shrank again.

Recession will hit hard this fall (IMO) . . . . Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Sep 3, 2021 | 07:05 33
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Big jobs miss released this morning . . . . U.S. job creation for August was a huge disappointment, with the economy adding just 235,000 positions, Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 720,000 new hires. Somehow, U.S. unemployment shrank again.

    Recession will hit hard this fall (IMO) . . . .
    Classic stagflation. Dollars gaining purchasing power is a pipe dream that money printers want you to believe. Stop drinking the koolaid it's bad for your financial well-being.

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    Sep 3, 2021 | 07:19 34 Stagflation until the stock market party is over . . . then serious deflation (IMO) which is already impacting the commodity world.

    A tonne of firewood in Australia is now worth more than a tonne of iron ore . . . . Reply With Quote
    Sep 3, 2021 | 07:20 35 Of all the currencies which one will handle this recession the best. Reply With Quote
    Sep 3, 2021 | 07:27 36
    Quote Originally Posted by rumrocks View Post
    Of all the currencies which one will handle this recession the best.
    USD (IMO) . . . gold / silver in-trouble as deflation is not friendly to precious metals. Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Sep 3, 2021 | 07:41 37
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    USD (IMO) . . . gold / silver in-trouble as deflation is not friendly to precious metals.
    Bill Gross the old bond king.Came out and said cash and treasuries are TRASH.That post the other day of the Saudi prince and Russian minister.Signing agreements on trade and military protection.Was the shot going off declaring the USD will be pushed aside going forward.Not maybe or might happen it is declared.As that was being signed Putin was in Nigeria signing similar agreements.Who is a major oil exporter for those that do not know.China also discovered major deposits of oil too to boot.The amount of USD and treasuries bought will drop significantly.That will make the dollar go down treasuries to drop and rates go up.Exactly what Gross is talking about.

    The USD's role as reserve currency is quickly waning, there will be a tidel wave of USD looking for a home soon. Never before has the reserve currency experienced hyperinflation, it may very well take all fiat currency with it.
    Last edited by biglentil; Sep 3, 2021 at 21:55.
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    Sep 3, 2021 | 07:49 38 Just received a comment from Dae won Yoon South Korean analyst . . . "If this is stagflation, the stock market will crash. This is the biggest bad news".

    And if the stock market crashes, inflation will be the least of our worries (IMO). Looks like markets are between a rock and a hard spot right now . . . . Reply With Quote
    Sep 3, 2021 | 08:39 39 Dow high on Aug 16 - 35,631.19. Suspecting it will stand. There now I said it, watch it go up some more. A 10% pullback certainly not out of the question. Reply With Quote
    Sep 3, 2021 | 08:45 40 Short time? Maybe that’s why Trudeau called a snap election before the sh… hits the fan. Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Sep 3, 2021 | 09:49 41
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    USD (IMO) . . . gold / silver in-trouble as deflation is not friendly to precious metals.
    Thanks Errol you are the contrarian indicator I needed to go all in. Just like how right when you called inflation dead it had a rip your face off rally. I've been calling for stagflation for over a year and what do we see...
    Last edited by biglentil; Sep 3, 2021 at 09:52.
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    Sep 3, 2021 | 10:11 42 Errol, what are your thoughts on fertilizer prices going forward?
    Well many other commodities seem to have peaked, fertilizer doesn't seem to have received the deflationary message yet. Can the fertilizers continue to chart their own path? Reply With Quote
    Sep 3, 2021 | 11:27 43
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Errol, what are your thoughts on fertilizer prices going forward?
    Well many other commodities seem to have peaked, fertilizer doesn't seem to have received the deflationary message yet. Can the fertilizers continue to chart their own path?
    Sorry, no clue and out-of-my-wheelhouse . . . .

    A general commodity pullback should have some price impact. Reply With Quote
    Sep 3, 2021 | 11:39 44 So Errol what does oats know? Reply With Quote
    Sep 3, 2021 | 16:42 45
    Quote Originally Posted by WiltonRanch View Post
    So Errol what does oats know?
    Very strong market. U.S. buyers will be short through winter and scrambling. Don’t see downside in this market likely through fall/early winter. 2CW bids $5.50/bu plus in Sk/Mb. Even light oats, very strong bids. Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 20, 2021 | 11:36 46
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Dow high on Aug 16 - 35,631.19. Suspecting it will stand. There now I said it, watch it go up some more. A 10% pullback certainly not out of the question.
    A little over a 5 percent pullback and off to the races again...35,669.69 Reply With Quote
    Oct 20, 2021 | 11:43 47
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    A little over a 5 percent pullback and off to the races again...35,669.69
    Have to give Errol credit for putting his predictions out there in public for all to see. It's easy to be a monday morning quarterback, like so many do.

    Not sure anything is predictable at this time. Throw out the book, uncharted waters. Reply With Quote
    Oct 20, 2021 | 12:06 48
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Have to give Errol credit for putting his predictions out there in public for all to see. It's easy to be a monday morning quarterback, like so many do.

    Not sure anything is predictable at this time. Throw out the book, uncharted waters.

    US regional banks are making new highs.

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    TSX is also at ATH.

    I am getting far more bullish than bearish signals.

    Of course, that can change quickly.

    Can we have both a recession and a stock market at ATH? Reply With Quote
    Oct 21, 2021 | 09:52 49
    Quote Originally Posted by wheatking16 View Post
    US regional banks are making new highs.

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    TSX is also at ATH.

    I am getting far more bullish than bearish signals.

    Of course, that can change quickly.

    Can we have both a recession and a stock market at ATH?

    Strap-in, markets may be in for harsh price volatility straight ahead. Massive global debt crisis is now being introduced to the new kid on the block; inflation. Who is going to beat on who? Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 21, 2021 | 11:24 50 Vix is at $15.44, almost half of the $26 it was a mere month ago. This looks like its in the historic low zone. Guess no one sees a major upheaval coming.
    Last edited by sumdumguy; Oct 21, 2021 at 14:41.
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    Oct 21, 2021 | 11:35 51
    Quote Originally Posted by wheatking16 View Post
    Can we have both a recession and a stock market at ATH?
    Why not, stock market is forward-looking recessions are already old news by the time the data is there to confirm.

    Then when you add in the money flows from the rest of the world to North America which is becoming the only game in town, I'm not sure the fundamentals even matter at that point. Reply With Quote
    Oct 21, 2021 | 12:37 52
    Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
    Vix is at $15.44, almost half of the $26 it was a mere month ago. This looks like its in the historic low zone. Guess no one see a major upheaval coming.
    Definitely, the blinders are on . . . . Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar Oct 21, 2021 | 13:00 53
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Definitely, the blinders are on . . . .
    errol maybe remove the fast incoming part. But yes there is no way this unstable abomination of an economy doesnt crash in some fashion in the next year. Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 21, 2021 | 13:37 54
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Strap-in, markets may be in for harsh price volatility straight ahead. Massive global debt crisis is now being introduced to the new kid on the block; inflation. Who is going to beat on who?
    I know grain farmers are getting absolutely beat into the ground right now , ag industry beating on farmers now more than anytime in history . And the beating getting worse every day Reply With Quote
    Oct 21, 2021 | 13:41 55
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    I know grain farmers are getting absolutely beat into the ground right now , ag industry beating on farmers now more than anytime in history . And the beating getting worse every day
    Long ways from needing anything. panic buying making things worse Reply With Quote
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  • Oct 21, 2021 | 19:29 56 Certainly appears to me to be the most serious world wide economic breakdown of my lifetime.

    Response from world leaders seems to be widespread deficit spending to never before seen levels.

    Now we have "the most important"climate planing comming up that will probably have all kinds of virtue signaling resolutions that will kill economic growth and result in all kinds of new taxation streams.

    Will there be any dissenting voices or will they all just jump in over thier heads with the chance to gain new revenue steams.

    I have no doubt our acting prime minister will be an enthusiastic cheerleader. I can't even imagine what hairbrain resolutions he will come home with. Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar Oct 26, 2021 | 08:00 57 Well thats interesting. Numbnuts sold off all our gold a few yrs ago, now the BOC is buying again.

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    Oct 26, 2021 | 08:15 58
    Quote Originally Posted by rumrocks View Post
    Of all the currencies which one will handle this recession the best.
    Bitcoin. Reply With Quote
    Oct 26, 2021 | 08:29 59
    Quote Originally Posted by hobbyfrmr View Post
    Bitcoin.
    A while ago you mentioned that you were concerned about the financial stability or trustworthyness of your organic buyers.
    Any updates on that front? Reply With Quote
    Oct 26, 2021 | 10:47 60
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    A while ago you mentioned that you were concerned about the financial stability or trustworthyness of your organic buyers.
    Any updates on that front?
    So far so good. I only had one problem with a hemp buyer in BC. Thankfully I had taken accounts receivable insurance on them. The credit check qualified them and quantified them. I refused to load the truck until they paid the uninsured difference up front. They could not seem to arrange those funds. I waited 9 months with the same tune. Finally I hired a lawyer to send them a registered letter to release me from the contract. Once that was in hand, one more phone call and the hemp sold to a more reputable hemp food company. That was a close call. That would have been a financial disaster for this farm.

    I decided to learn about Bitcoin and now I am slowly stepping way from the government and banks. There is plenty of information on youtube and podcasts about bitcoin. Reply With Quote