Effect(s) of having a short crop

[jdg364]

What do people think will happen to the overall ag spending spree compared to past years. Locally our crops will be decent compared to many areas but still only 2/3’s of a normal crop.

Land/rent took another price jump this spring.. IMO i feel that things will hold but not decrease, seems that people are still hungry for more heartache.

Equipment. RME / cervus told me earlier this spring that the majority of equipment was all sold out and better book to get on a waiting list for 2022. Had a salesman call yesterday and say that there’s some sprayers available for 2022 spring now, I’m guessing some people are feeling that the iron they have will run for another year. Myself included.

Cheque book is closed and going to sit and wait to see how many bins i won’t need to fill. Don’t want to get too down because the prices are nice and if you look far enough prices for fall of 2022 are pretty attractive as well if you have the stomach to price any 🤷*♂️.

[furrowtickler]

I think a lot of “supply” issues , including machinery will disappear over the next month .

[Taiga]

My heavily indebted neighbour asked if I wanted to sell any land this winter... some things will never change I guess.

[jazz]

My heavily indebted neighbour asked if I wanted to sell any land this winter... some things will never change I guess.

This why balance sheets of many farmers is a mirage. When you constantly add acres, a true financial picture is never clear.

If some of these guys were forced to stand still for 3 yrs there might be a reckoning in ag. Maybe this yr is the canary in the coal mine.

As far as I am concerned anyone that has to add the to the risk in this business by huge forward contracting so they can guarantee movement before the bills hit could have solvency issues under the hood.

[Sheepwheat]

I think in this area, with a solid looking crop on the way, the purses will be open. I mean, are you not in the money with 50 bushel canola at 25 bucks?

[furrowtickler]

I think in this area, with a solid looking crop on the way, the purses will be open. I mean, are you not in the money with 50 bushel canola at 25 bucks?

True but not all 50 bus will be at $25
Most farms are contracted at 10 bus or higher
Some obviously will cash in big time
I doubt any canola any where will crack much over 40
Heat does damage to canola regardless of rain

[crusher]

Less than special crop here last year, canola yield in high 20's, about half of normal. We are one year closer than others to the break out year. I thought we were going to be average, sold 0-15 bu/ac depending on the crop. Oh well. As long as inflation doesn't make my favorite rum too expensive.

[Oliver88]

This why balance sheets of many farmers is a mirage. When you constantly add acres, a true financial picture is never clear.

If some of these guys were forced to stand still for 3 yrs there might be a reckoning in ag. Maybe this yr is the canary in the coal mine.

As far as I am concerned anyone that has to add the to the risk in this business by huge forward contracting so they can guarantee movement before the bills hit could have solvency issues under the hood.

Are lenders remotely concerned about these debt/equity ratios or is the concern the Christmas bonus/salary increase for handling $5 million more “business”?

[Austrian Economics]

This why balance sheets of many farmers is a mirage. When you constantly add acres, a true financial picture is never clear.

If some of these guys were forced to stand still for 3 yrs there might be a reckoning in ag. Maybe this yr is the canary in the coal mine.

As far as I am concerned anyone that has to add the to the risk in this business by huge forward contracting so they can guarantee movement before the bills hit could have solvency issues under the hood.

A couple of neighbors have contracted quite a bit of their crop. They are worried now.

[bucket]

A couple of neighbors have contracted quite a bit of their crop. They are worried now.

No worries...Scotty Moe and Davey Marit are going to sit down with grsincos...on behalf of their saskparty supporters..that's a subsidy if they help them out of their speculation.

[GALAXIE500]

My heavily indebted neighbour asked if I wanted to sell any land this winter... some things will never change I guess.

We got people like that in our area also. Makes you wonder how leveraged they are , and why they are so insecure about the size of their land base and age of their machinery. My old paid for stuff is looking pretty good all of a sudden!

Going to stay that way for the future, if we want to keep doing this dance with mother nature.