media and the BTOs and a rant

[bucket]

It seems that the media is starting to take an interest in the crop conditions...Globe and Mail.

And some BTOs are starting to indicate its pretty serious ...one that just built a feedlot but it will be full of something sooner than later. He will be OK but he even realizes its a bad situation.

The rant for a Saturday morning.


I wrote my MP on June 1st 2021 about the implication of the drought , had to remind him again. Emails get lost you know?????actually ignored.

He stated he is working behind the scenes. Thats great....He was working behind the scenes last year during the pandemic helping the liberals pass 400 billion in spending as well for the general population.

Lets call this day 7 of concern in the general population of how bad things are on the farm...

Then lets see if the government reacts with meaningful payments within the same time frame they did with the pandemic.

How can throwing a few billion at agriculture be any more difficult than the billions Trudeau gave away last year on a daily basis? This is not difficult and what is 10 billion when you have wasted 500 billion?????

Tax deferrals on cattle into a market like this , when you do the math , is for some the only way, but they are going to take a shitkicking and getting back in will be expensive.

The pandemic provided wage subsidies and CERB and other programs with real money ...

They didn't ask the general population to sell something and take a tax deferral.

Air Canada received close to 9 billion in direct government money after having a fairly profitable year in 2019.

Farmers are asked to help other farmers. Farmers are also told to be businessmen.

As a business do you see westjet helping Air Canada,,,,Evraz helping Algoma....Bourgault helping Morris Industries???????

Politicians in western Canada get their votes from farmers along with donations to run their campaigns...because you know """Saskparty good , NDP bad """"slogan needs lots of cash. And federally a cardboard cutout with conservative on it would win and thats what we get for representation. Big money..Little representation.

We have a federal conservative ag critic that lately her only job is a new dress fitting...its amazing how politicians upscale themselves with their new found wealth from taxpayers. Lianne Rood took a trip out west had to have full western wear to fit the part , how they stuffed her in is beyond me..Here is a hint ...don't stand with cattle in the background if you are going to make the feeders look thin.

Farmers in general should be pissed off in this province for the AG minister to say he can't afford a program...this government has committed 4 billion to irrigation along with federal funding it will be 6 billion...for no more than 500 farmers who won't use their own chequebooks.

Here is a fun fact to think about....if you put every irrigated acre that is built or proposed to canola ( 500000 acres ) and it grew 2 tonnes per acre ( it won't) that is one million tonnes of canola . One million tonnes of canola won't fill the requirement of the recently announced expansion or new builds to the canola crush industry in this province. Those tonnes will have to come from dryland farmers who, BTW are also going to help pay for the 6 billion irrigation scam. But dryland farmers are not supported.


Back to the 4 billion of debt financing for irrigation...80 million a year in interest...160 million in principle over 25 years. 16 million a year if funded the same way as the 3 largest districts at 40 bucks an acre.

Province doesn't have the money...I call bullshit...so should every dryland farmer.

[Oliver88]

Bucket, what do you think farmers should be paid for drought per acre?

[bucket]

Bucket, what do you think farmers should be paid for drought per acre?

Minimum 100 bucks an acre.

If you correlate to other generations ad hoc payments, compare it to what the american farmers have been getting, have a look at even the announcements by Trudeau in the last week of 900 million,

The data justifies the 100 dollar an acre logic....won't happen.

But for some perspective.... irrigation farmers around Riverhurst , Outlook , and Lucky lake that were transferred the assets for a buck are receiving 40 bucks an acre for 5 years , thats 200 an acre. And the government as part of the asset transfer are still on the hook for any existing deficiencies.

BTW , if you want to throw up a pivot there is funding up to half a million ...

So I dont think 100 buck an acre is out of line for dryland farmers.

[bucket]

4 billion of provincial money for 400000 acres of irrigation is $10000 per acre to get to the quarter line.

Just some perspective.

Thats 1.4 million per quarter of subsidy to the quarter line , if you add in farmers share and further subsidies probably getting close to 2 million per quarter...to grow, according to ICDC statistics, dryland crops.

100 bucks an acre is only 16000 per quarter for dryland farmers.... that really drive the economy.

So further to my logic for every quarter of irrigation the government is proposing they could help 100 quarters of dryland at 100 bucks an acre or 200 if they went at 50 bucks per acre...


Which do you think would help the provincial economy more????

[jazz]

Bucket, I dont totally disagree with your post but have caveats.

First of all should cowboys be bailed out? If you ran off and doubled your acres and signed forward contracts on canola before the snow melted should you be entitled to a payment?

If you are a crop dumper who has so many bills coming in after harvest and cant (or wont) get your own credit line and missed the rally is that the govts problem?

Anyone who doesnt run with 80% scic coverage on crops shouldnt be able to get a bail out. Thats our main program, it works decently to put you back in the game again for another yr. Any top of money should be put in that program.

The last time farmers were given ad hoc payments, they bought land, some used the funds to exist the business some took the money and declared bankruptcy anyway.

Some targeted top up as disaster mitigation is needed. Throw all those agstab funds into scic and let the province dole it out. But an across the board acreage pmt is not the right approach.

[bucket]

Bucket, I dont totally disagree with your post but have caveats.

First of all should cowboys be bailed out? If you ran off and doubled your acres and signed forward contracts on canola before the snow melted should you be entitled to a payment?

If you are a crop dumper who has so many bills coming in after harvest and cant (or wont) get your own credit line and missed the rally is that the govts problem?

Anyone who doesnt run with 80% scic coverage on crops shouldnt be able to get a bail out. Thats our main program, it works decently to put you back in the game again for another yr. Any top of money should be put in that program.

The last time farmers were given ad hoc payments, they bought land, some used the funds to exist the business some took the money and declared bankruptcy anyway.

Some targeted top up as disaster mitigation is needed. Throw all those agstab funds into scic and let the province dole it out. But an across the board acreage pmt is not the right approach.

Good questions and I will reply with my humble opinion hopefully to encourage more discussion.

Contracts have to be honoured at the graincos ...if a guy signed it ..man up...same guys bragging other years on their contracts now singing the blues ... but this drought is past those issues any way..contract or not.

I dump grain at harvest sometimes its the best price...flax if I can because no matter how clean there is always something that goes wrong.

SCIC ..I understand what you are saying there but yield averages for individual farmers have a really plucked up formula. I can have good crops but my yields never seem to increase on my what ifs.

There will always be farmers that don't need the money but if they buy machinery I dont care ...can't have good used equipment without someone buying new...its just another way of helping the economy...

Buying land sort of is a taxable benefit...land isn't deductible . I think in the states it is.

Finally an acreage payment is the only way ..agristability isn't working and crop insurance is decades behind in proper yield formula.


Yes there will still be winners and losers but overall an acreage payment will level things until the next crop year.

Give farmers nothing and it accelerates the consolidation...

And as I have said before ...why didn't the general population be forced to handle the pandemic on their own.

These are not argumentative statements and not intended to be ...just throwing it out there for discussion

Letting government bureaucrat figure out a formula ...well you know how long that will take.

Remember Devin Dreeshen was a bureaucrat in Ritz's office when they gutted agristability and now he is asking the liberals to fix his lack of vision. He owes his farmers an apology for his incompetence . ...won't happen. """"UCP good ...Ndp bad"""

Saskparty good ...NDP bad

[jazz]

Good questions and I will reply with my humble opinion hopefully to encourage more discussion.

Making winners and losers in the business through govt funding is part of the reason we have 57 yr old farmers and need 3000 acres to make a living.

Not everyone farms the same or has the same risk profile that is why we should have a suite of coverage options at scic for everyones risk. I wont farm unless I think I cna reasonable make a net profit of $150-200 per acre. I know BTOs who are running thousands of acres trying to make $30 and now that has turned into negative $30. Should that guy get an acreage pmt?

We have also had a decent string of good crops for the most part. Does nobody have any equity built up or did they plow that into iron. I was very hard on businesses that didnt have a disaster fund when covid came. I think farmers should be in the same position.

[bucket]

Agristabilty is based on a 5 year olympic average...throw out the highs and lows...only guys getting money are guys changing their structure with the advice from MNP who developed the program in the first place.. It was a government gift to MNP back in the day...

....crop insurance yield data is based on a really stupid formula from what I can tell.

Its time to update the formula and programs.. to be more reflective of what goes into farming.

Air Canada got 9 billion?????

Algoma steel has been a constant bail out contender for decades????

Auto industry was on its knees and now they are throttling production to increase prices...interesting concept...They have gone from have full lots to empty ones...not sure how to buy a new vehicle now. off topic. oops.

[bucket]

Making winners and losers in the business through govt funding is part of the reason we have 57 yr old farmers and need 3000 acres to make a living.

Not everyone farms the same or has the same risk profile that is why we should have a suite of coverage options at scic for everyones risk. I wont farm unless I think I cna reasonable make a net profit of $150-200 per acre. I know BTOs who are running thousands of acres trying to make $30 and now that has turned into negative $30. Should that guy get an acreage pmt?

We have also had a decent string of good crops for the most part. Does nobody have any equity built up or did they plow that into iron. I was very hard on businesses that didnt have a disaster fund when covid came. I think farmers should be in the same position.

Government programs have mapped the way forward to larger farms for decades...I don't agree with it but that is what happened.

We also have 3rd , 4th , 5th generation farms because of government programs.

As far as good years....2019 wasn't a stellar harvest, 2016 was full of garbage durum. its been a bit of a crap shoot year and year out..

On the cattle side there really is no correlation between meat prices in the store and what a guy is getting paid for calves. the middleman is doing pretty good though.

Good discussion , I think there is merits to all sides of this disaster...the path forward is help is needed ..

Corrections in programs is what bureaucrats are to be looking for during the periods of stability and yet every time there is a disaster ....the program isn't there and hasn't been developed...

It seems the real drought is the brain power of bureaucrats to have programming ready for situations like this.

[bucket]

The argument they’ve had some good years doesn’t “fly” with me, pretty sure Air Canada had some great years leading into Covid and they still couldn’t afford to refund money they had already taken???? Figure that one out!!!

Funny part is most people don't realize that they paid for the ticket and then used their tax dollars to refund the phucking thing...

[jazz]

The argument they’ve had some good years doesn’t “fly” with me, pretty sure Air Canada had some great years leading into Covid and they still couldn’t afford to refund money they had already taken???? Figure that one out!!!

Think about it another way. Any time you rely on govt for funding, they exert more control over that industry. Those companies are basically zombies and wouldnt exist a second in a competitive market. The maritimes fishery is a caretaker industry now too. Auto industry will be that too soon.

Our oil, ag and mining are only entrepreneurial sectors left in this country and I would hate to risk that for some temp payout. I would much rather Trudeau ignore us.

[bucket]

You mean the oil and gas sector that's leaving the clean up for government funding...

Even Brad Wall was asking for help on that front but he called it job creation but did the wells actually get cleaned up?????

[BreadWinner]

I think for most on here it been hard buying into the climate change hype, me included. But is extreme heat, drought, floods etc the farmers fault? Im not so sure. The government is has a plan to help everyone effected by disasters and that should include farmers that provide food for the world. It makes sense to me!!!!!
Google "Report warns of ‘large gaps’ in Canada’s preparedness for climate change disasters" and see if agriculture or rural Canada is ever mentioned. Nope just Urban disasters are being looked after not the bread and butter that keeps mankind alive. It will be tough for us conservative types but I think if Farmers want to have their backsides protected we might need to start drumming the climate change drum. We may have to start asking "why not us" we pay the carbon taxes and many other taxes that help everyone else in this country. Why are farmers climate change disasters not as important as rising sea levels or forest fires.

[bucket]

I think for most on here it been hard buying into the climate change hype, me included. But is extreme heat, drought, floods etc the farmers fault? Im not so sure. The government is has a plan to help everyone effected by disasters and that should include farmers that provide food for the world. It makes sense to me!!!!!
Google "Report warns of ‘large gaps’ in Canada’s preparedness for climate change disasters" and see if agriculture or rural Canada is ever mentioned. Nope just Urban disasters are being looked after not the bread and butter that keeps mankind alive. It will be tough for us conservative types but I think if Farmers want to have their backsides protected we might need to start drumming the climate change drum. We may have to start asking "why not us" we pay the carbon taxes and many other taxes that help everyone else in this country. Why are farmers climate change disasters not as important as rising sea levels or forest fires.

Not to be an argument but i read something about the wobble of the moon to affect flooding in areas of the earth. ...how is trudeau types going to control that?

As far as this drought its happened before ...When Palliser surveyed it was dry...1930s 1961, 1988 2002 and now today..

The only way out prior was for government to help no different than every other sector receives..

You can't have protein industries canada handing out money like crazy and have no farmers willing to lose money growing the product they need.

[BreadWinner]

Thanks Bucket you are proving my point I can give many examples why I don't think its actually climate change but why do we as farmers do this? Every other industry is using the "climate change" tool as a way to help their industry, but not farmers. Why not?