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Big Day Today in Grain Markets!

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SASKFARMER's Avatar May 7, 2021 | 05:49 1 Is today the Day July Tops 1000 a ton or will stats Canada with a march report of grain inventories on the farm come up with a number that is so high the market will drop in support.

It's stats Canada so who knows, **** they don't have a clue so who knows.

In 2021 with computers they should be able to send this out in like 10 days return. Not 60 plus days. Come on time to fire 3/4 of the staff buy a new iMac yes they are expensive but do the trick and have updated info.

We will see at 7:30 CST.

The Canadian Dollar is moving up and oh this is bad for grain markets.

Like **** you, Look at wheat it's over 8 for fall so with a conversion to the USA That's $9.74 Canadian. Take off freight etc can you get any more than 7 at an elevator here.

But you can bet my deere tractor built in the USA just went up not down as it should be with a higher dollar.

The dollar is just another game that's played.

The Great Grain robbery happened in Canada, It was 2024 grow more Canola on More acres and get a fair price of $9.75 a bus and you better be happy. I see crush is still making money at $22 canola. Last time I checked Grain Companies were part of the Billion dollar boys club.

But like all lies, the over-production lie we weren't supposed to have a drought. One year was easy to fix the numbers but two the lie gets too big to handle.

Media reports from Experts about big big crops from guys who never leave an office or have any clue how a crop grows.

Basically what ever stats canada comes up with today l for sure know the bins will be full of Air come August as who wouldn't sell at these prices most of the crop.

Bins are empty come August. Reply With Quote

  • May 7, 2021 | 06:04 2 """"The market is always right""""

    Isn't that what the experts say...

    Statscan has played their cards...they are bluffing now....and I think most know it... Reply With Quote

  • SASKFARMER's Avatar May 7, 2021 | 06:20 3 Its a joke is what it is.

    First, tell a lie about a big crop.

    Repeat every year and tell us to grow more to fill the need.

    When we do it's too big and now take it all as a cut for us overproducing.

    Then keep the lie going big big big.

    The more you tell about how big it was the bigger it gets.

    Finally a drought ****ed that up.

    How will stats fake canada respond.

    It doesnt take 60 plus days to come up with info. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • SASKFARMER's Avatar May 7, 2021 | 06:32 4 Total stocks of canola fell 37.7% to 6.6 million tonnes as of March 31, the lowest level since 2013, because of a 47.1% decline in on-farm stocks to 4.8 million tonnes. Commercial stocks rose 19.1% to 1.8 million tonnes.

    Deliveries of canola increased 14.2% to 15.5 million tonnes year over year, while domestic canola use rose 0.7% to 7.4 million tonnes as canola crushing remained strong.

    Exports were up 27.2% to a record 8.0 million tonnes. China imported more than 1.8 million tonnes (+61.9%) of canola, while exports to the European Union also rose.


    Well look at that you can only fudge the numbers so long.

    Bins will be empty come August and if it doesn't rain a contract of 15 will have to be bought out for 25. Reply With Quote
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  • May 7, 2021 | 06:37 5 Bigger , bigger , bigger , until it isn’t ....
    Right Neil ?
    Guys like him that caused this
    Now it’s open season on farmers because everyone thinks that all farmers had all their canola at $20
    Parts prices are put up weekly Reply With Quote

  • May 7, 2021 | 06:40 6
    Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER View Post
    Total stocks of canola fell 37.7% to 6.6 million tonnes as of March 31, the lowest level since 2013, because of a 47.1% decline in on-farm stocks to 4.8 million tonnes. Commercial stocks rose 19.1% to 1.8 million tonnes.

    Deliveries of canola increased 14.2% to 15.5 million tonnes year over year, while domestic canola use rose 0.7% to 7.4 million tonnes as canola crushing remained strong.

    Exports were up 27.2% to a record 8.0 million tonnes. China imported more than 1.8 million tonnes (+61.9%) of canola, while exports to the European Union also rose.


    Well look at that you can only fudge the numbers so long.

    Bins will be empty come August and if it doesn't rain a contract of 15 will have to be bought out for 25.
    There are lots of contracts at $11 Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • SASKFARMER's Avatar May 7, 2021 | 06:48 7 When Canola hit the 12 most sold.

    like I said ask a farmer how he likes the Canola prices and if he is out he talks about getting a 15 for fall. If he has Canola unpriced it's a bin full here or there. If it's delivered and has a favorable basis he's licking his chops.



    The lie was all about 2024 big bib big and we feed everyone and get the scraps. Big didn't happen and why because it got dry and didnt rain. Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • jazz's Avatar May 7, 2021 | 06:57 8
    Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER View Post
    The lie was all about 2024 big bib big and we feed everyone and get the scraps. Big didn't happen and why because it got dry and didnt rain.
    They are already crowing about farmers have to raise yeilds 9bu to supply all these crushers being built.

    My guess will be some super new genetics coming our way, $1500 a bag should cover it. Reply With Quote

  • May 7, 2021 | 07:29 9 Mother nature could cause a few other problems Reply With Quote
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  • May 7, 2021 | 08:12 10 Do you think if I short Canola the weather would change? A short today might bring rain by next weekend. 😂 Reply With Quote
    May 7, 2021 | 09:00 11
    Quote Originally Posted by Robertbarlage View Post
    Mother nature could cause a few other problems
    As dry it is around here in Southern Manitoba, I would be very nervous about the amount of new crop priced canola I had to deliver. Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • May 7, 2021 | 10:03 12
    Quote Originally Posted by VK58 View Post
    As dry it is around here in Southern Manitoba, I would be very nervous about the amount of new crop priced canola I had to deliver.
    Most of Sask is dry as well , driest we have ever seen it this time of year Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • May 7, 2021 | 13:02 13
    Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
    Do you think if I short Canola the weather would change? A short today might bring rain by next weekend. 😂

    Doesn’t work that way, if you short canola it won’t rain and than you will be making margin calls. Better off to go long if you want it to rain. Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • May 7, 2021 | 13:28 14 The Statscan report today showed another big balance sheet discrepancy. It said canola on farms was 4.79 mmt, barely half of year-ago 9.06. Using previous StatsCan figures for ‘20 production (18.72 mmt) and farm carryin at July 31 (1.86 mmt) gives an on-farm supply of 20.56 mmt. Primary deliveries between July 1/20 and Mar 31/21 (week 34) were reported by the Grain Commission at 15.07 mmt. That should have left 5.49 mmt on farms Mar 31. The gap is approx 700,000 tonnes of canola, 3 weeks of use, that apparently never existed. Either the ‘20 canola harvest or carry-in was overestimated or Mar 31 stocks undercounted. According to these numbers there is enough canola to average deliveries of 266,000 tonnes a week to the end of the crop year and approx 218,000 to the first harvest. The average for the crop year to date is 435,000. The canola shortage is even tighter than thought. Reply With Quote
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  • May 7, 2021 | 13:28 15 Sounds like a few farmers are asking about and actually buying out fall delivery contracts today with the drop in new crop futures and recent weather forecasts taking out any measurable rain for the next 2 weeks.
    Range of $5 to $8 a bushel cost to buy out a contract depending on company, delivery month and if specialty canola!!
    Retailers saying canola seed and some pea inoculant coming back or not getting picked up.
    Wind yesterday and today is drying the top out even more.
    Have heard some colonies and farms with livestock have switched canola and lentil acres to barley and oats to ensure they have feed for animals/birds and not having to buy any maybe. Reply With Quote
    May 7, 2021 | 13:38 16
    Quote Originally Posted by Kraut View Post
    The Statscan report today showed another big balance sheet discrepancy. It said canola on farms was 4.79 mmt, barely half of year-ago 9.06. Using previous StatsCan figures for ‘20 production (18.72 mmt) and farm carryin at July 31 (1.86 mmt) gives an on-farm supply of 20.56 mmt. Primary deliveries between July 1/20 and Mar 31/21 (week 34) were reported by the Grain Commission at 15.07 mmt. That should have left 5.49 mmt on farms Mar 31. The gap is approx 700,000 tonnes of canola, 3 weeks of use, that apparently never existed. Either the ‘20 canola harvest or carry-in was overestimated or Mar 31 stocks undercounted. According to these numbers there is enough canola to average deliveries of 266,000 tonnes a week to the end of the crop year and approx 218,000 to the first harvest. The average for the crop year to date is 435,000. The canola shortage is even tighter than thought.
    Yup , imagine that , both were overestimated in all crops Reply With Quote
    May 7, 2021 | 14:31 17 We have seeded wheat but will not seed oilseeds unless it rains. Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar May 7, 2021 | 14:51 18
    Quote Originally Posted by agstar77 View Post
    We have seeded wheat but will not seed oilseeds unless it rains.
    Seeding canola into powder today. That's how we always roll in the Paliser.

    US weather service showing rain 10d out.
    Last edited by jazz; May 7, 2021 at 14:55.
    Reply With Quote
    May 7, 2021 | 15:05 19 Cargil must be full and booked up, 0 basis now at crusher. Thats a $1.50 a bushel lower than a couple days ago when basis was +$65

    Thats a slap to the side of the head. Reply With Quote
    May 7, 2021 | 15:16 20 Bunge also narrowed in old crop but only $10/t. I've seen enough. The last is getting signed up at $24.29. That's a big number. Reply With Quote
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