Market Bubbles: How Many Boats are We On?

[errolanderson]

Are bubbles beginning to pop?

1. Lumber futures down 50% Price of 2X4's on the way down.
2. Crypto washout . . . down nearly 50% recently. Bitcoin recovery to above $40,000. Can it hold?
3. Corn down nearly 10%, Wheat breaking, soy/palm oil sliding
4. Box beef prices sliding seasonally
5. Gold breaking recent uptrend . Retest $1,800?
6. Copper now off 8 percent from recent highs.

What glue continues to hold?
1. Equities still foraging at record highs.
2. Real estate insanity continues.
3. Crude oil $70 plus . . . summer driving demand supporting.

Fed meeting this week . . . funds concerned that Chair Powell may mention the word 'taper'. Volatile week possible . . . .

[errolanderson]

Iron ore, lumber, ocean freight, next oil? Some base-line global commodity bubbles have already burst and/or near their tipping point.

China debt bubble now pressuring some asset values. Freight washout is likely triggered due to reduced manufacturing and the Asia financial market stress caused by unravelling debt pressures. U.S. also appears on-the-cusp of fallout (IMO)

[furrowtickler]

Let hope that fertilizer and farm herbicides are next
Otherwise with industry will bankrupt remaining farms next year

[poorboy]

If we had normal crop yields around the world, the prices would have dropped just like the other commodities mentioned. Those commodities have already ramped up supply and dropped price. Crop cycles are slow, I think there is potential to hold grain prices at 85-115% of todays values until next summer. Oil also looks to be priced well until production gets ramped up again in 3-4 months.

But as much as I think grain prices are well supported and potential is there for a run higher, I did sell 70% of my production at todays values as I think it is a very decent price.

[mcfarms]

Iron ore, lumber, ocean freight, next oil? Some base-line global commodity bubbles have already burst and/or near their tipping point.

China debt bubble now pressuring some asset values. Freight washout is likely triggered due to reduced manufacturing and the Asia financial market stress caused by unravelling debt pressures. U.S. also appears on-the-cusp of fallout (IMO)

They are called trailing stops.... use them

[Guest]

sold non GMO canola for $22.48 today picked up
rallying pretty good

[errolanderson]

Rate hikes starting to appear globally. Norway, now New Zealand added to list. Believe 5 year mortgages here up about 30 points in the past few days. Not much, but up . . . .

Any rate hikes are a risk-to-asset bubbles, including equities.

Also, watch copper . . . . If price breakdown continues, this is significant globally (IMO).

[Old Cowzilla]

sold non GMO canola for $22.48 today picked up
rallying pretty good

Sold the rest of my canola ( what there was of it ) yesterday USA bean crop pegged at 50 bu ave. and South American seeding going OK. Plus USA finding more beans from last year in the bins AGAIN.

[errolanderson]

Comment from Moscow analyst Andrey Sizov . . . .

Iowa farmland price hit a new record-high of $26,000/acre ($65.000/ha) To put this into perspective - 1-2 years ago prices were around $10,000/acre....and the best Russian farmland currently is around 30X cheaper.

[WiltonRanch]

Sold the rest of my canola ( what there was of it ) yesterday USA bean crop pegged at 50 bu ave. and South American seeding going OK. Plus USA finding more beans from last year in the bins AGAIN.

If La Niña continues it could put sa crops in jeopardy as much as our crops in western Canada. I’m not holding my breath but looks like another drought year coming by how everything is lining up.

[Guest]

Comment from Moscow analyst Andrey Sizov . . . .

Iowa farmland price hit a new record-high of $26,000/acre ($65.000/ha) To put this into perspective - 1-2 years ago prices were around $10,000/acre....and the best Russian farmland currently is around 30X cheaper.

and russia is a much easier more free place to do business
were being regulated out of existence
russia open for business
we are closing

[JoeyJeremiah]

and russia is a much easier more free place to do business
were being regulated out of existence
russia open for business
we are closing

Isn't Russia constantly putting export tariffs on everything, wouldn't really call that a free market, or even the land of opportunity. Could a Canadian move there, buy farmland and start farming. Genuine question as I have no idea.

[workboots]

Isn't Russia constantly putting export tariffs on everything, wouldn't really call that a free market, or even the land of opportunity. Could a Canadian move there, buy farmland and start farming. Genuine question as I have no idea.

Id give Bill Browder and his Red Notice a skim over if you ponder what investing in Russia is like.

[the big wheel]

Russia a good place to invest? Ya if you’re
Paying Putin a percentage of what you make maybe
But other than that if you make good money
You can bet on disappearing one night.

[foragefarmer]

and russia is a much easier more free place to do business
were being regulated out of existence
russia open for business
we are closing

Come on Case, it's Thanksgiving weekend and you're more than likely going to sit down with all your wonderful family for a meal fit for the Royal's and you think of Russia as a "much easier more free" country?

Had a driver of the trucking company we use, who immigrated from South Africa three years ago and was a farmer, tell me yesterday us Canadian farmers don't know how lucky we are.

We Canadian's living in the wide open country landscape should never forget that.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving meal, I know I will.