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Feb 22, 2021 | 08:54 1 Like everyone else this market continues to amaze. It is funny how just about everyone didn't see this coming. I am more uncertain of our planting intentions today than I have been in a lot of years. I feel we have a pretty good rotation and don't push canola too much , usually 2 other crops between and sometimes 3. That being said most max out their canola acres to what they feel doable simply because canola seems too always moves to provide cash flow. Wheat movement on the other hand has been slow as hell this year and when one sees feed wheat out pricing #1 HRS wheat something is out of wack. I admit, I love growing wheat but this year its a tough one to pencil out up till now at least.
Where I am get at is when you look at world wheat stocks , China on paper holds fully half of stocks. As many now feel their numbers are crap and now as we have seen such a buying spree by them that the evidence would appear that maybe world wheat stocks , like much of the other ag commodities are not what was the trade thought. I acknowledge that covid has changed things. What I see is most of the trade seem to think the other show will drop, and we will go back to normal trendlines. If it doesn't ? New crop HRS prices have been trending up but like other crops they need to buy acres. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 22, 2021 | 09:34 2
    Quote Originally Posted by jamesb View Post
    Like everyone else this market continues to amaze. It is funny how just about everyone didn't see this coming.
    With everyone from producers, end users, traders, analysts all being side swiped by this rally, does it seem reasonable that most will be more cautious about accepting the official stats for a while, regardless of which way they swing?

    Either someone along the way was purposefully lieing, or there is gross incompetence in compiling the data.
    I suppose a third option is that this rally really isn't jutified and is entirely spec driven? Reply With Quote
    Feb 22, 2021 | 09:36 3
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    With everyone from producers, end users, traders, analysts all being side swiped by this rally, does it seem reasonable that most will be more cautious about accepting the official stats for a while, regardless of which way they swing?

    Either someone along the way was purposefully lieing, or there is gross incompetence in compiling the data.
    I suppose a third option is that this rally really isn't jutified and is entirely spec driven?
    How about all three? Reply With Quote
    Feb 22, 2021 | 09:40 4
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    How about all three?
    Where would that leave us? Reply With Quote
    Feb 22, 2021 | 09:43 5
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Where would that leave us?
    With Gerry Ritz's legacy ! Reply With Quote
    GDR
    Feb 22, 2021 | 09:48 6
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    I suppose a third option is that this rally really isn't jutified and is entirely spec driven?
    My hunch is there is quite a bit of reality in that sentence.

    Once sellers get in the mindset of new higher prices it will hold the market as bins are locked for a while into new crop, but there will be a day of reckoning when bills come due and markets drop like a rock. Hope I'm wrong. Reply With Quote
    Feb 22, 2021 | 09:49 7 Is the rally really about wheat or is it been pushed along by corn, I'm guessing the latter. Reply With Quote
    Feb 22, 2021 | 09:57 8 Might be corn driven but China has bought a lot of wheat and barley from Canada. Reply With Quote
    Feb 22, 2021 | 10:29 9
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Might be corn driven but China has bought a lot of wheat and barley from Canada.
    Not from Richardson.... Reply With Quote
    Feb 22, 2021 | 10:53 10
    Quote Originally Posted by Herc View Post
    Not from Richardson....
    atleast it isn't reflected in their price offerings, agreed. Reply With Quote
    jazz's Avatar Feb 22, 2021 | 11:14 11
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    Might be corn driven but China has bought a lot of wheat and barley from Canada.
    China could stop buying tomorrow and the entire rally fizzles. They have been known to do that. Reply With Quote
    Feb 22, 2021 | 11:17 12
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    China could stop buying tomorrow and the entire rally fizzles. They have been known to do that.
    They won't stop buying if they're lying about the stocks they're holding,,, or will they !!! Reply With Quote
    Feb 22, 2021 | 12:58 13 Personally I think the guys that hold the money or shud I say move the money around are seeing the writing on the wall with the stock market so their new pet is gonna be commodities. To me the stock market is a joke if u aren’t locked in with the big boys and the artificial inflation of these companies is gonna hit the skids sooner than later. Reply With Quote

  • Feb 22, 2021 | 13:44 14
    Quote Originally Posted by Herc View Post
    Not from Richardson....
    Coulda fooled me. They want feed barley with little to no wheat in it. It’s getting exported. So where is it going? Reply With Quote
    Feb 22, 2021 | 13:52 15
    Quote Originally Posted by WiltonRanch View Post
    Coulda fooled me. They want feed barley with little to no wheat in it. It’s getting exported. So where is it going?
    Chinese malt ! Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Feb 23, 2021 | 15:01 16 See sale Monday aust canada and Ukraine the winners. SAOG.

    335000 tonnes haven’t found who got what.

    Reckon wheat stocks just a tad over rated.

    Countering that talk Australia’s tonnes gonna be revised up wards again Reply With Quote
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  • blackpowder's Avatar Feb 23, 2021 | 15:12 17 Thank you mallee for not giving up on this site. How much old crop left in country? Reply With Quote
    Feb 23, 2021 | 15:40 18
    Quote Originally Posted by blackpowder View Post
    Thank you mallee for not giving up on this site. How much old crop left in country?
    Australia?

    Shitloads. Can’t put a figure on it maybe 60 even 70%

    Edit Ps I could be way wrong will attempt to find out how much is warehoused in elevator system. Then on farm stocks which is always unknown.

    Re the site I will snoop maybe on comment when I got something relevant. But can’t help but notice shit disturbers never ever comment on marketing or farming. Rare as a bikini in a convent.
    Last edited by malleefarmer; Feb 23, 2021 at 15:44.
    Reply With Quote
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