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Feb 15, 2021 | 09:47 1 Any thoughts on the impact of that cold snap??? Reply With Quote
Feb 15, 2021 | 09:55 2 Looks very cold down there till Friday.

Should at least get attention from small novice speculators paying for thier education in commodity futures.

Might give Wheat a chance to join the party.

Is the party still on? Reply With Quote
Feb 15, 2021 | 10:03 3 Will the wheat be worked under an seeded to something else...Minus -8 has to do some damage Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 15, 2021 | 10:15 4 I’m gonna go with I doubt it bucket. That stuff has a hundred lives. Even when we grew winter wheat here the biggest risk of kill was in the end of April into May. Reply With Quote
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  • ajl
    Feb 15, 2021 | 10:17 5
    Quote Originally Posted by FarmJunkie View Post
    I’m gonna go with I doubt it bucket. That stuff has a hundred lives. Even when we grew winter wheat here the biggest risk of kill was in the end of April into May.
    Particularly if there is some snow that stays on top of it. Then it is likely the moisture does more good than the cold does harm. Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 10:19 6
    Quote Originally Posted by FarmJunkie View Post
    I’m gonna go with I doubt it bucket. That stuff has a hundred lives. Even when we grew winter wheat here the biggest risk of kill was in the end of April into May.
    Heard that before, but this is pretty cold with a quick change...if it had come out of dormancy and actively growing is the question/unknown..

    I just thought it would be something to talk about before the market opens tomorrow . Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 10:32 7 USA winter wheat doesn't move market as much as it did in the past. Black Sea seems to have a bigger influence one the wheat market. The biggest difference of coarse is the FSU production which has increased.

    Wheat is grown everywhere as well so one area hurting doesn't have the same effect like it did 10-15 years ago.

    But, hopefully it does get a kick start. Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 10:35 8
    Quote Originally Posted by foragefarmer View Post
    USA winter wheat doesn't move market as much as it did in the past. Black Sea seems to have a bigger influence one the wheat market. The biggest difference of coarse is the FSU production which has increased.

    Wheat is grown everywhere as well so one area hurting doesn't have the same effect like it did 10-15 years ago.

    But, hopefully it does get a kick start.
    True but couple that with the Russian export tax??? Any cummulative effects of a tax and a cold snap?

    Remember we have lost markets with a tweet from bobblehead Freeland..so anything can affect the markets from stupidity (Freeland) to cold weather, export taxes, color of the presidents hair, anything really..

    And yet the world can't help feed the humantarian crisis in Yemen. Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 10:49 9
    Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
    True but couple that with the Russian export tax??? Any cummulative effects of a tax and a cold snap?

    Remember we have lost markets with a tweet from bobblehead Freeland..so anything can affect the markets from stupidity (Freeland) to cold weather, export taxes, color of the presidents hair, anything really..

    And yet the world can't help feed the humantarian crisis in Yemen.
    Russia and Ukraine need cash, they'll dump wheat to get it.

    Canada's wheat market has many major buyers, not just one.

    Countries have been starving for decades, and it has never had much of an effect on the wheat market anyways. That's a dead horse Bucket. Besides counties with money are the ones buying wheat anyways. Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 11:02 10 -20C current temp in okla. Average feb high is around plus 12. minus 27 low for tonite. That’s cold anywhere let alone Oklahoma in mid feb. We could pretend nothing would be said if it was 30 degrees above normal.
    Last edited by Sheepwheat; Feb 15, 2021 at 11:09.
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  • Feb 15, 2021 | 11:50 11 Rotating black-outs around Houston. Monday is nasty and power company tells residents that they may be without power all day. Reply With Quote
    SASKFARMER's Avatar Feb 15, 2021 | 12:04 12 Texas is starting to fill at end of March.

    It's a big thick leaf figuring out yield so will be less yield.


    But Oklahoma is further behind and still snow from there up.

    Spring starts down the south end of march. Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 12:17 13
    Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER View Post
    Texas is starting to fill at end of March.

    It's a big thick leaf figuring out yield so will be less yield.


    But Oklahoma is further behind and still snow from there up.

    Spring starts down the south end of march.
    We have friends in Oklahoma. Average high is at least 12. No snow. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say it would be the equivalent time of mid April for us. I’ve grown enough winter wheat to know that a minus 27 in mad April is going to suck. And that’s with our cultivars. I presume their wheats are a bit “softer” than ours?

    Regardless, they feel the end of the world has come. Reply With Quote
    SASKFARMER's Avatar Feb 15, 2021 | 12:22 14 winter wheat has 9 lives but if it's dry and wrong time they will get paid crap insurance and move on to 2022. Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 12:34 15
    Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER View Post
    winter wheat has 9 lives but if it's dry and wrong time they will get paid crap insurance and move on to 2022.
    Except their insurance probably isn’t crap. Like somewhere else I know! Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 12:43 16 In less than a month, farmers along the gulf coast will be wanting to plant corn. Things had better warm up by then or we'll see seeding delays. Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 13:19 17 When do they graze wheat pastures in Oklahoma and Texas? This cold must be buggering that too. Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 13:26 18 Green jobs flying copters to de-ice windmill blades.

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    Last edited by jazz; Feb 15, 2021 at 13:54.
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    RTK

  • Feb 15, 2021 | 14:54 19 No worries, Copters run on environmentally acceptable unicorn farts. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 15, 2021 | 15:04 20 https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-winter-storm-power-outage-snow-temperatures

    And how will the power grid handle millions of EV’s on top of this , or mid summer heat ? Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 15, 2021 | 15:13 21 Jazz: How is this de - icing a wind turbine blade any different than needing graders/cats to come in to plow snow to access working gas and oil wells to enable operators to do regular well checks, for service rigs to swab wells, and for dewatering trucks to haul out water? Do you also disagree with pipeline companies using helicopters/aircraft to check pipelines on a regular basis? Reply With Quote

  • Feb 15, 2021 | 15:39 22 Another thread derailed. Reply With Quote

  • Feb 15, 2021 | 15:50 23 ABARES forecast Australia’s wheat production +120% over last yr to 33.3MMT to a new record. USDA will likely need to revise their production forecast higher in the next WASDE IMO.

    Fair increase hey.

    Think this could be raised again but maybe only to 33.5 to 33.7 on farm stocks always rubbery, to low in good years to high in poor years.

    Shit loads of wheat hasnt hit the market yet people hoping for higher prices. Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 16:03 24
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    Jazz: How is this de - icing a wind turbine blade any different than needing graders/cats to come in to plow snow to access working gas and oil wells to enable operators to do regular well checks, for service rigs to swab wells, and for dewatering trucks to haul out water? Do you also disagree with pipeline companies using helicopters/aircraft to check pipelines on a regular basis?
    dml, please cite the time where 1000 oil wells went down due to weather, or the oil sands stopped production because of weather or the line pack in the natural gas network was lost or oil in tankage was zero? Thats the proper analogy.

    Any idea how long it would take to de-ice thousands of windmills? What is taking up the slack while they do that? Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 16:36 25
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    ABARES forecast Australia’s wheat production +120% over last yr to 33.3MMT to a new record. USDA will likely need to revise their production forecast higher in the next WASDE IMO.

    Fair increase hey.

    Think this could be raised again but maybe only to 33.5 to 33.7 on farm stocks always rubbery, to low in good years to high in poor years.

    Shit loads of wheat hasnt hit the market yet people hoping for higher prices.
    Once in a lifetime bumper crop? Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 16:53 26
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    dml, please cite the time where 1000 oil wells went down due to weather, or the oil sands stopped production because of weather or the line pack in the natural gas network was lost or oil in tankage was zero? Thats the proper analogy.

    Any idea how long it would take to de-ice thousands of windmills? What is taking up the slack while they do that?
    Rolling blackouts are working well so far Reply With Quote

  • Feb 15, 2021 | 16:56 27
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Any idea how long it would take to de-ice thousands of windmills? What is taking up the slack while they do that?
    Which brings another question. How does that centipede pee that is going on those blades, then on the ground, affect the crop that will be growing in that area the following year(s).
    Is someone going to condemn and call it polluted and force that land idle ? Hope not. Reply With Quote
    Feb 15, 2021 | 17:19 28
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    dml, please cite the time where 1000 oil wells went down due to weather, or the oil sands stopped production because of weather or the line pack in the natural gas network was lost or oil in tankage was zero? Thats the proper analogy.

    Any idea how long it would take to de-ice thousands of windmills? What is taking up the slack while they do that?
    Interestingly the largest refinery in the US is shut down because of the cold weather. I bet that refinery handles more than the production of 1000 wells. An oil well is not much use if you cannot refine the product.
    "The nation’s largest oil refinery shut down because of the brutal weather. Motiva said it shut down the Port Arthur, Texas, refinery because of “unprecedented” freezing conditions along the Gulf Coast."https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ow/4487366001/

    And I wonder how much of the power outages are due to downed lines from ice and trees, which will likely take a whole lot longer to repair than for the ice to melt off the turbines considering the ice will melt on its own as soon as the weather warms above freezing which will happen soon in Texas unlike here. Do you remember the ice storm in eastern Canada where power was off for weeks? How about Oklahoma last November when 40,000 homes were still without power 10 days after an ice storm due to downed lines.

    And to speed up the nnatural deicing, we have the technology; just like we use graders/cats to plow snow to maintain and service wells. In fact we are very good at de icing airfoils It is done at all major airports in Canada and northern US daily to thousands of planes.

    Manpower and equipment is used to maintain and service all types of energy production systems including fossil fuels. More importantly, no system is perfect and severe weather can impact every type of energy production and delivery system.
    Last edited by dmlfarmer; Feb 15, 2021 at 17:44.
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    Feb 15, 2021 | 17:34 29
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    Once in a lifetime bumper crop?
    26 to 28 often.

    But run of three droughts in nsw.

    Would have been bigger WA had below average year.

    I know you guys disagree with me at t8mes but theres alot of wheatin the world and ours isnt 20% shipped and the rough figure is 40% to 45% sold.

    Domestic sales always unknown

    Sorry for interrupting yet another Climate Change Renewable thread. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 15, 2021 | 23:40 30
    Quote Originally Posted by foragefarmer View Post
    Russia and Ukraine need cash, they'll dump wheat to get it.

    Canada's wheat market has many major buyers, not just one.

    Countries have been starving for decades, and it has never had much of an effect on the wheat market anyways. That's a dead horse Bucket. Besides counties with money are the ones buying wheat anyways.
    Isn't Russia putting another $25/ton US export tax on wheat starting march 1st? That in itself is 88 cents/bushel canadian. Not to mention the market bump that will bring. Reply With Quote