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Feb 17, 2021 | 09:10 61 Weather risk and storm damage is a risk factor in every electrical system. There was lots of risk before wind and solar systems ever came into the picture. Reply With Quote
Feb 17, 2021 | 09:27 62 I will try to dumb it down for you
Man CANNOT control the weather
They sure as hell can’t predict it
So the power source HAS to be as reliable as possible to mitigate the variables that the boss throws in
Something that generates power only when the sun shines or wind blows and doesn’t work in an ice storm , etc , are nothing more than a pipe dream Reply With Quote
  • 3 Likes


  • Feb 17, 2021 | 10:11 63 What caused your recent outage? Reply With Quote
    Feb 17, 2021 | 10:16 64
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    What caused your recent outage?
    Touche. Well played sir. Reply With Quote
    Feb 17, 2021 | 10:30 65
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Now just imagine, if instead of wasting billions fighting climate change, we had invested an equal amount in mitigation efforts for actual weather events that actually happen. Making our infrastrucure more reliable and secure. More back up, actually studying climate history and preparing for the extremes of all types which have been known to occur.
    Who is the we you are talking about? Texas is the most deregulated and privatized electrical system in NA. The private ownership of generation and retailing of electricity made the business decision to not build excess capacity, interlink with out of state generation, or winterize the system for adverse weather in order to maximize profits. Do you feel deregulation went to far in the privatization of electricity? Do you feel the government should be subsidizing a privatized electrical system to build capacity/infrastructure? Any comments on this quote: "The ERCOT grid has collapsed in exactly the same manner as the old Soviet Union. It limped along on underinvestment and neglect until it finally broke under predictable circumstances." ED HIRS, UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON Reply With Quote
    Feb 17, 2021 | 13:47 66
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    What caused your recent outage?
    We live in an area that can’t survive without heat
    Let them play these games and test this shit where it isn’t life or death
    And worry about cities where you can’t see across the street
    Leave us alone she’s a tough go here at the best of times but we are doing pretty good
    Today I can almost see all the way to seldomseens place about 15-20 miles
    Tired of people playing games with our lives and people sticking up for their bullshit Reply With Quote

  • Feb 17, 2021 | 15:31 67
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    What caused your recent outage?
    That was a good one tho chuck
    Made me chuckle
    Needed that today in this cold SOB country Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 03:43 68 8 pm here watching evening news crikey some shots from Louisiana even there frozen.

    A balmy 40 c here tommorow Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Feb 18, 2021 | 05:54 69
    Quote Originally Posted by malleefarmer View Post
    8 pm here watching evening news crikey some shots from Louisiana even there frozen.

    A balmy 40 c here tommorow
    'Global Warming' is a hypocritical religion that common sense cannot square, logic cannot explain... who's faith is deception.

    We would be wise to be creative, while conserving the many special blessings we are endowed with;

    The failure of those responsible is obvious... it should have been obvious Texas is not immune to this...

    Winter storm warnings issued ahead of significant late-summer snowstorm

    By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
    Published Sep. 5, 2020 9:01 AM MST | Updated Sep. 8, 2020 11:53 AM MST

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/winter-storm-warnings-issued-ahead-of-significant-late-summer-snowstorm/808166

    Roadways are likely to initially be wet given the magnitude of the heat ahead of the storm. As the cold air arrives with the storm and the ground begins to cool, however, roads and sidewalks could turn slick early on Tuesday. Pedestrians and motorists alike should be aware of the risk for slippery travel.


    Snow starting to cover roadways in Montana on Monday afternoon. (Montana Department of Transportation (DOT) camera)
    The weight of the snowfall on fully leafed trees could cause limbs and branches to break. In addition to damage to trees, fallen limbs could also lead to more widespread power outages.

    In addition to the snow, this storm will usher in a temperature swing of as much as 65 degrees Fahrenheit in less than 48 hours.


    A dip in the jet stream will allow cold air from Canada to rush southward and bring record-challenging low temperatures in cities like Billings, Montana, Cheyenne, Wyoming and Denver.

    This surge of winterlike air will bring a stark temperature contrast from Monday into Tuesday. Denver dropped more than 50 degrees in 12 hours from Monday afternoon to Tuesday morning, from 93 to 37. Denver had just set an all-time record high for September of 101 on Saturday.

    Cheyenne also experienced the drastic drop in temperature. Following a high temperature of 86 degrees on Monday afternoon, temperatures dove down to 32 degrees just 12 hours later, early on Tuesday morning.

    Cheyenne's low early Tuesday is forecast to bottom out in the upper 20s, near the 25 degree record set in 1962.

    Temperatures this low have not been felt since early May in most locations.


    Cold air will continue to rush southward through the middle of the week into New Mexico, northern Texas and Oklahoma. A blast of air this drastically cool is unusual for the South Central states for so early in the season. A charge of cool air in this manner in over the southern High Plains is often called a "blue norther."

    'Breaking weather records: The Great Blue Norther

    VIDEO: Remembering record-setting cold front in Tulsa
    By: Megan McClellan, FOX23 Severe Weather Team
    Updated: November 11, 2020 - 5:54 AM
    A strong cold front moved across the United States on November 11, 1911 that drastically dropped temperatures across the country and set many records.
    In Oklahoma, not only were record highs set ahead of the front, but record lows were also set behind the front.
    Some of the more interesting facts;

    Tulsa hit a record high of 85° (also hit in 1989)
    The temperature by the following morning was down to 15° (still the record low)
    OKC set a record high of 83° and by midnight a record low of 17° (both still valid)
    Independence, KS the temperature dropped from 83° to 33° in one-hour.
    Winds gusted over 60 mph behind the front creating a dust storm across parts of Oklahoma
    Janesville, WI was struck by an F4 tornado and within hours was experiencing blizzard conditions and a temperature near 0°
    At least 15 tornadoes occurred across the upper-Midwest
    This incredibly strong cold front is known as "The Great Blue Norther of November 11, 1911".
    The FOX23 Severe Weather Team is talking digging through the numbers to see just how rare these types of events are and if we could see one like this again.' Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • Feb 18, 2021 | 07:22 70
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    I will try to dumb it down for you
    Man CANNOT control the weather
    They sure as hell can’t predict it
    So the power source HAS to be as reliable as possible to mitigate the variables that the boss throws in
    Something that generates power only when the sun shines or wind blows and doesn’t work in an ice storm , etc , are nothing more than a pipe dream
    IN OTHER WORDS
    Anything that generates power only when the sun shines or wind blows and doesn’t work in an ice storm , etc , can contribute nothing to solutions required. Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • Feb 18, 2021 | 08:00 71
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    So having too much electricity is the problem? You have been telling us the opposite, that we wont have enough! Make up your mind.

    Cant you just turn down some gas or other dispatchable sources when there are lots of renewable sources and ramp up the other sources when renewables are low? That's what system operators are designing their systems to do. I am assuming they have this figured out at the AESO in Alberta?

    But don't let that stop you and your friends on Agrisilly blaming renewables every time the power goes out. Even on systems where there are hardly any renewables. LOL
    An emphatic "No". to ham stringing base load production. In practice what happens is dispatchable sources schedule maintenance periods; or are decommissioned or not able to be brought back online; especially on short notice. They become "Uneconomic"
    Supposedly not needed. Until found absolutely essential. Like WTK happened?

    If you want to know why the natural gas system failed in Texas; numerous operators from cooler to colder climates could diagnose the problem in an instant. Freeze ups from wellhead to point of use occur within hours of temperature changes both a bit above and below the freezing point (0C or 32F). The cure is relatively minute methanol injections. Much preferably...before the fact.

    For those who need to be told more than once. Prevention of the problem is so much easier; unless never needed. Screw up and the Texas situation happens. It is not an accident; it can be for seen; even guaranteed at first temperature changes through and near the freezing point of collecting moisture; and first at points of gas flow restriction .

    This provides a lesson for renewable energy promoters too. No energy for periods where there is no wind or sun. Ergo imminent problems if not fully prepared. That shouldn't be on heads of primary base load producers. Rest of intermittent electrical supply possibility also can't be guaranteed by anyone because of obvious valid reasons.
    Again; it should be up to those who claim they can produce so much cheaper. Let them foot the bill and be responsible for any addiditional unreliability they add to participation in the grid. After all they claim to be able to be showing the profits; and should be responsible for added complications of systems.
    Last edited by oneoff; Feb 18, 2021 at 08:08.
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  • Feb 18, 2021 | 08:02 72
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    Weather risk and storm damage is a risk factor in every electrical system. There was lots of risk before wind and solar systems ever came into the picture.
    See above post.... It needs to be read at least another time. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Feb 18, 2021 | 08:30 73 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...erta-1.5917052

    Lessons for Alberta from the Texas power blackout

    Everything is bigger in Texas, even the power market spikes
    Joshua Rhodes and Blake Shaffer · for CBC News · Posted: Feb 17, 2021 2:11 PM MT | Last Updated: February 17

    This column is an opinion from Joshua Rhodes, a research associate at the University of Texas at Austin, and Blake Shaffer, a professor at the University of Calgary.

    The frigid Arctic air that gripped Alberta for much of the last two weeks has descended on the U.S. Deep South. But unlike Alberta, Texas and its surrounding regions aren't designed for this type of weather.

    Buildings are designed to shed heat, not keep it in. Power systems are built to meet the extreme peaks of sweltering summer heat, not mid-winter cold.

    Pushed to the brink, with record-breaking demand for this time of year coupled with power supply failures across the spectrum of fuel types, the Texas grid was forced to shut off pockets of power to millions of consumers around the state in an effort to ration available supply and avoid a catastrophic, system-wide blackout.

    In short, it's an event that will be discussed for decades by electricity traders. It's the stuff of nightmares for power market designers and grid operators, and a dangerous situation for millions of Texans without heat.

    So what happened? Who's to blame? And what lessons can Alberta take from this event?
    What happened in Texas

    In essence, the situation in Texas came down to classic supply and demand.

    At one point, all 254 counties in the state of Texas were under winter storm warnings. These historic, state-wide, cold temperatures led to record demand for energy that drove electricity prices from their typical mid-$30s into the thousands of dollars per megawatt-hour, and natural gas from $3 to several hundred dollars per MMBtu.

    When there still wasn't enough supply, the electricity grid had to initiate rotating outages that have lasted for days, leaving many Texans in the cold.

    On paper, Texas had the capacity to manage this record demand. But the Texas grid is built for summer: it measures its reserve margins and resource adequacy against being able to provide electricity on hot summer afternoons when the entire state is demanding power for air conditioning.

    One major takeaway from this experience is how ill-prepared Texas's infrastructure is for these extreme cold events, and how that differs from their ability to meet summer peaks.
    Freezing temperatures and a power system not designed for them resulted in a lack of gas supply and soaring natural gas prices during the Texas power outage. (Blake Shaffer)

    Simply put, Texas's infrastructure doesn't invest in the type of insulation and cold weather protection that is the norm in Alberta — because by and large, they rarely need it.

    In the end, many natural gas wells and other infrastructure froze in Texas and surrounding regions, limiting supply in this time of high demand. Other thermal assets, such as coal and natural gas power plants, also experienced issues with frozen water intakes, and some wind capacity has been lost to icing.

    This squeeze on not just one, but two, energy sectors (gas and electricity) that are closely interconnected has pushed both of them beyond what they were designed to handle, causing both to fail.

    It foreshadows the future for Alberta. We skated through our recent cold snap with nary a suggestion of system emergency, because our fuel delivery and power infrastructure is built for those types of extremes. However, it may be a far different story when we have to grapple with temperatures in the 30 C and even 40 C range in summers to come.
    Who's to blame?

    It's only natural in the aftermath of a serious event like the Texas power outage is that people will be quick to seek and assign blame. Many are all too eager to find any excuse to reinforce their pre-existing notions about the unreliability of wind, blaming the outages on a dearth of wind power.

    But answers aren't so simple, and it will take time to fully dissect this event.

    What we do know is that wind performed, for the most part, roughly as expected: a small fraction of its maximum capability, but roughly in line with what the Texas system counts on for reliability purposes in the winter.

    Natural gas, oft-touted for its ability to provide reliability in power grids with large shares of renewables, was beset with struggles.

    Freezing temps led to shut-in production in a system not designed for these temperatures. This resulted in a lack of gas supply and soaring natural gas prices — in some cases 100 times typical pricing. During the Texas outage event, over 30,000 MW of thermal power plants, or 35 per cent of thermal power capacity, was offline.
    Alberta and Texas put their faith in the market when it comes to the power grid. Over the years, this has worked reasonably well. Alberta’s and Texas’s power markets tend to result in lower — but more volatile — prices. (Blake Shaffer)

    In short, no single fuel is to blame, nor would a different market design have saved the day. Texas ended up in the proverbial perfect storm of having both an extreme demand shock and correlated supply failures at the same time.

    Takeaways for Alberta

    Alberta and Texas share many similarities in their power grids.

    Both are historically based around fossil fuel generation, with recently growing shares of wind and solar. Both have limited electrical connections to their neighbours, leaving it largely up to themselves to manage their reliability. And both operate, uniquely in North America, under what is called an "energy-only" market — paying competitive generators solely for the energy they produce.

    While the rest of the continent adds a layer of capacity payments to ensure sufficient power generating capability to keep the lights on, or relies on a traditional, regulated system of utilities (over-)building to meet their customers needs, Alberta and Texas put their faith in the market, letting wholesale power prices rise to what may seem at times astronomical levels.

    more..... Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 08:41 74 There is no lesson for Ab from Texas. What an idiotic article. Ab has never had a province wide grid meltdown. The NG facilities are all winterized and coal is at the ready when needed. There are interconnections to BC and Sask and MB through Sask.

    And wisely Ab has kept its idiotic green virtue signaling projects at a minimum.

    The lesson is for all the woke crowd pushing net zero and renewables. Adding any type of renewable generation reliant on weather and susceptible to it at the same time makes it much more fragile and its the stupidest thing we could ever do. Reply With Quote
  • 2 Likes


  • Feb 18, 2021 | 08:45 75
    Quote Originally Posted by oneoff View Post
    IN OTHER WORDS
    Anything that generates power only when the sun shines or wind blows and doesn’t work in an ice storm , etc , can contribute nothing to solutions required.
    System operators and designers know very well that solar and wind are intermittent and design enough back up into the system to cover off intermittent renewables.

    What happened in Texas is demand went through the roof and the fossil fuel sources failed and wind and solar were still putting out a predictably small winter amount.

    So the reality is the Texas was not prepared for an extreme winter weather event. Alberta on the other hand is well prepared for winter.
    Last edited by chuckChuck; Feb 18, 2021 at 09:27.
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    Feb 18, 2021 | 10:57 76
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post

    So the reality is the Texas was not prepared for an extreme winter weather event. Alberta on the other hand is well prepared for winter.
    You are getting so close to having an epiphany.
    Can you think of any reason why any region of the globe would be finding themselves unprepared for record cold temperatures, and unseasonable winter conditions?
    Is there any theory that has been widely touted in recent decades that would make everyone complacent that these types of events are not going to occur now or into the future?
    In fact, can you think of any widely held "beliefs" that might have caused most to be preparing for the exact opposite phenomenon?
    Do you think if those who subscribed to this new theory had studied weather history, instead of wasting all of their resources and attention creating and relying on future climate models, they might have thought it prudent to prepare for weather such as this?

    At some point, beliefs have to be tested against reality. That just occured for many, too early to know if the lessons will be learned. Reply With Quote

  • Feb 18, 2021 | 11:50 77
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    You are getting so close to having an epiphany.
    Can you think of any reason why any region of the globe would be finding themselves unprepared for record cold temperatures, and unseasonable winter conditions?
    Is there any theory that has been widely touted in recent decades that would make everyone complacent that these types of events are not going to occur now or into the future?
    In fact, can you think of any widely held "beliefs" that might have caused most to be preparing for the exact opposite phenomenon?
    Do you think if those who subscribed to this new theory had studied weather history, instead of wasting all of their resources and attention creating and relying on future climate models, they might have thought it prudent to prepare for weather such as this?

    At some point, beliefs have to be tested against reality. That just occured for many, too early to know if the lessons will be learned.
    Right on.........and an additional note that Sask has invested in gas caverns since 1964. Too bad renewables don't have a backup plan when all gas generation is caused to be ceased be in less than a decade.
    Looks like promoters haven't even heard of planning. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Feb 18, 2021 | 12:01 78
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Many thanks for the picture.


    The rest of the story was that the Texan's light sabre discharged overnight, and that he found himself sealed inside the frozen carcass with no way out. Preparing for inevitable death his mind wandered to all the good and poor decisions he had made in his life. One memory he struck on was how many times he had voted Republican in his life. He felt so small he crawled out the carcasses a**hole. Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 13:27 79
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    You are getting so close to having an epiphany.
    Can you think of any reason why any region of the globe would be finding themselves unprepared for record cold temperatures, and unseasonable winter conditions?
    Is there any theory that has been widely touted in recent decades that would make everyone complacent that these types of events are not going to occur now or into the future?
    In fact, can you think of any widely held "beliefs" that might have caused most to be preparing for the exact opposite phenomenon?
    Do you think if those who subscribed to this new theory had studied weather history, instead of wasting all of their resources and attention creating and relying on future climate models, they might have thought it prudent to prepare for weather such as this?

    At some point, beliefs have to be tested against reality. That just occured for many, too early to know if the lessons will be learned.
    I think what is instructive here is that many media articles blame the fact that Texas has a basically private for profit generation system and that greed kept these companies from properly preparing for cold weather. They were more worried about profits according to some articles. Now water lines are freezing and water treatment facilities are not functioning so boil water advisories have went out. Personally I think it is fairly simple as AB5 suggests, it is damn cold in Texas and everybody believed that cold weather was a thing of the past! Reply With Quote

  • Feb 18, 2021 | 13:36 80 Poor climatards are wringing their hands in dismay with all the coverage Texas “prairie winter” is getting Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 13:45 81
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    System operators and designers know very well that solar and wind are intermittent and design enough back up into the system to cover off intermittent renewables.

    What happened in Texas is demand went through the roof and the fossil fuel sources failed and wind and solar were still putting out a predictably small winter amount.

    So the reality is the Texas was not prepared for an extreme winter weather event. Alberta on the other hand is well prepared for winter.
    I tried to find the post from a few months ago where you were bragging up all the renewable power generation in Texas and how it was all private companies investing in solar and wind, maybe Dml could dig that up he seems to be very efficient at finding old posts. Reply With Quote

  • Feb 18, 2021 | 14:11 82 Easy when you have staff Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 16:37 83 Forget Tesla, buy yourself a F150

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/some-texans-use-2021-ford-f-150-hybrids-to-power-homes-amid-winter-storm.html Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 17:21 84 That’s what I was asking the other day of AF4
    But maybe Tesla’s are different
    I guess no onboard generator ? Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 17:23 85 It appears the "alt right" sheeple and circle jerk club are one and the same. Classic trump style sensationalism. Just pointing out that the photo is several years old and not even from Texas. It was an experiment in deicing methods using boiling water. Tech has come a long way since. Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 17:25 86 I wonder if they have all the safety hookups like you need when you power your hose with a generator?
    I wonder if the power is safe for electronics? Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 17:55 87 Ha so it's Trumps fault the uneconomic tax payer subsidized windmills froze up. I knew it. Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 18:25 88
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Ha so it's Trumps fault the uneconomic tax payer subsidized windmills froze up. I knew it.
    Federal Regulators warned in 2011 Texas power plants would have serious problems in bitterly cold conditions.

    In 1989 Texas had to do system-wide rolling blackouts for the first time.

    This problem was long before windmills, seems a very poorly managed power grid has been going on for years in Texas.

    Now the ordinary person suffers while Teddy Cruz goes on holidays
    Last edited by foragefarmer; Feb 18, 2021 at 18:27.
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    Feb 18, 2021 | 18:37 89
    Quote Originally Posted by foragefarmer View Post
    Federal Regulators warned in 2011 Texas power plants would have serious problems in bitterly cold conditions.
    I guess spending $5T fighting the war on terror instead of building infrastructure in your own country isnt a great return on investment after all. At least not for people needing to heat their homes. Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 20:02 90
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    I guess spending $5T fighting the war on terror instead of building infrastructure in your own country isnt a great return on investment after all. At least not for people needing to heat their homes.
    Ya, those Bush's have done wonders throughout the decades. Reply With Quote