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Feb 15, 2021 | 23:42 31
Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
Jazz: How is this de - icing a wind turbine blade any different than needing graders/cats to come in to plow snow to access working gas and oil wells to enable operators to do regular well checks, for service rigs to swab wells, and for dewatering trucks to haul out water? Do you also disagree with pipeline companies using helicopters/aircraft to check pipelines on a regular basis?
One of those industries isn't hypocritically damning the other for being dirty. That is the difference. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 16, 2021 | 00:58 32
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    Jazz: How is this de - icing a wind turbine blade any different than needing graders/cats to come in to plow snow to access working gas and oil wells to enable operators to do regular well checks, for service rigs to swab wells, and for dewatering trucks to haul out water? Do you also disagree with pipeline companies using helicopters/aircraft to check pipelines on a regular basis?
    I agree. There are countless reasons why wind and solar aren't viable, no need to go this route. Every industry has to resort to energy intensive solutions to counter mother natures wrath at times, no point in trying to single out one of them, the argument will get thrown right back in our face. Reply With Quote
    Feb 16, 2021 | 01:32 33 My opinion and nothing more, this rally in grains has the ability to wreck operations. We are WAY PHUCKING OVERSOLD!!! The regular timing signals are being ignored for price levels. "Put a target in" this might be the absolute worst marketing advice ever pedaled. Stick to the regular sell dates that work for you, and realize we are on the doorstep of a drought, the cycle is due, it's either this year or next. The macro picture has changed as well which means this can run a lot higher then anyone expects. My next target on chi wheat is 787 and i doubt it'll stop this. $6 will be the new floor. $4 corn will be the basement moving forward. Best guess from here is we tap all time highs by seeding time, pullback, reload, and launch into July. There's no old crop left, anywhere. Brazil started this trend, and its been shifting around the world, farmers can't help but sell and way too much. Im thinking $29 wheat, $13 corn, and $33 beans. The technical lines on basically every commodity have opened up to allow at the very least a doubling in price. Im showing $40+ on canola. But that's just an anonymous poster on the internet talking. If we dip into extreme negative short term interest rates and much higher taxes, what's the incentive not to hoard commodities? Nobody is worried about missing the top rn. Im hearing 50%+ of new crop Canadian production is sold, as high as 80% on feed barley. If sub average yields happen in 21, and those sales need to be bought back, my top end targets are very realistic. This thing is loaded. A 4x move off the lows to highs in 24 months~
    Last edited by macdon02; Feb 16, 2021 at 01:40.
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    Feb 16, 2021 | 08:36 34
    Quote Originally Posted by macdon02 View Post
    My opinion and nothing more, this rally in grains has the ability to wreck operations. We are WAY PHUCKING OVERSOLD!!! The regular timing signals are being ignored for price levels. "Put a target in" this might be the absolute worst marketing advice ever pedaled. Stick to the regular sell dates that work for you, and realize we are on the doorstep of a drought, the cycle is due, it's either this year or next. The macro picture has changed as well which means this can run a lot higher then anyone expects. My next target on chi wheat is 787 and i doubt it'll stop this. $6 will be the new floor. $4 corn will be the basement moving forward. Best guess from here is we tap all time highs by seeding time, pullback, reload, and launch into July. There's no old crop left, anywhere. Brazil started this trend, and its been shifting around the world, farmers can't help but sell and way too much. Im thinking $29 wheat, $13 corn, and $33 beans. The technical lines on basically every commodity have opened up to allow at the very least a doubling in price. Im showing $40+ on canola. But that's just an anonymous poster on the internet talking. If we dip into extreme negative short term interest rates and much higher taxes, what's the incentive not to hoard commodities? Nobody is worried about missing the top rn. Im hearing 50%+ of new crop Canadian production is sold, as high as 80% on feed barley. If sub average yields happen in 21, and those sales need to be bought back, my top end targets are very realistic. This thing is loaded. A 4x move off the lows to highs in 24 months~
    Very well could be historic year if certain thing play out as you point out .
    I just hope we get at least an average crop with no frost damage . The rest will take care of itself. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 16, 2021 | 08:44 35
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    Jazz: How is this de - icing a wind turbine blade any different than needing graders/cats to come in to plow snow to access working gas and oil wells to enable operators to do regular well checks, for service rigs to swab wells, and for dewatering trucks to haul out water? Do you also disagree with pipeline companies using helicopters/aircraft to check pipelines on a regular basis?
    The difference is that the cost of servicing oil wells is paid for out of the profits from the sale of the oil and gas.

    Since nearly every wind installation is a chronic money loser, any additional costs such as de-icing the blades merely multiplies the losses. Reply With Quote

  • Feb 16, 2021 | 08:58 36
    Quote Originally Posted by flea beetle View Post
    Isn't Russia putting another $25/ton US export tax on wheat starting march 1st? That in itself is 88 cents/bushel canadian. Not to mention the market bump that will bring.

    That may be so, but if you and I already know about $25/ton US export tax, it's already been factored into the wheat price. FSU has many countries growing wheat.

    Those minus temps in the USA winter wheat growing area has only bump up MGEX $0.08/bushel today.

    Just my opinion, I'll be happy if I'm wrong. Reply With Quote
    Feb 16, 2021 | 09:22 37
    Quote Originally Posted by Austrian Economics View Post
    The difference is that the cost of servicing oil wells is paid for out of the profits from the sale of the oil and gas.

    Since nearly every wind installation is a chronic money loser, any additional costs such as de-icing the blades merely multiplies the losses.
    AE: If oil companies are paying all the costs as you claim, why does Alberta have 3127 orphaned wells, 3186 orphaned pipeline segments, 1553 orphaned sites etc etc (2019 figures)? Who is going to pay for the cleanup of the 100,000 inactive wells in the province. AER estimated it will take $58.65 to remediate all of the unproductive wells in the province.

    And that does not include the land rental payments to farmers that oil companies have walked away from.
    Last edited by dmlfarmer; Feb 16, 2021 at 09:38.
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  • Feb 16, 2021 | 09:34 38
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    If oil companies are paying all the costs as you claim, why does Alberta have 3127 orphaned wells, 3186 orphaned pipeline segments, 1553 orphaned sites etc etc (2019 figures)? Who is going to pay for the cleanup of the 100,000 inactive wells in the province. AER estimated it will take $58.65 to remediate all of the unproductive wells in the province.

    And that does not include the land rental payments to farmers that oil companies have walked away from.
    The difference dml, is you dont rely on the weather to generate your power and civilization and be at risk from it at the same time, ever. Thats stupid policy that is now affecting people because we just cant accept reality that renewables will never power this planet.

    Obviously TX has another lesson or 2 probably coming its way some day if a katrina level event happens again.

    FF infrastructure is widely distributed and interconnected and buried in the ground to avoid as much of these risks as possible. The rural power grid in sask is 100 times more robust since the early 80s after much of it was buried. The natural gas grid has 3 days of line pack available if it ever went down.

    During hurricane sandy, all the prius owners jury rigged their cars to power their homes with gasoline.

    Our woke crowd and their enablers have a lot to learn about resiliency. Reply With Quote

  • Feb 16, 2021 | 10:07 39 Bond market looks set to collapse, received a pic of St Louis froze over but still flowing this morning. I wonder if Vancouver could freeze up? Reply With Quote
    Feb 16, 2021 | 10:28 40
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Our woke crowd and their enablers have a lot to learn about resiliency.
    What if this predictable outcome isn't a bug, but a ( maybe even THE) feature? Reply With Quote
    Feb 16, 2021 | 10:31 41
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    What if this predictable outcome isn't a bug, but a ( maybe even THE) feature?
    Real world starting to sink in a bit. Eventually comes to those living away from it all in inner cities. Mother nature doesnt discriminate.

    This Blizzard Exposes The Perils Of Attempting To ‘Electrify Everything’

    Look at the risks that a fully electrified grid with solar and wind would be susceptible to; snow, ice, hail, hurricanes, tornados, terrorism, EMP, solar flare, computer hack etc. And zero redundancy in those events. Our energy would become 100x more fragile. This is stupid already.
    Last edited by jazz; Feb 16, 2021 at 10:35.
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  • Feb 16, 2021 | 11:36 42
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    AE: If oil companies are paying all the costs as you claim, why does Alberta have 3127 orphaned wells, 3186 orphaned pipeline segments, 1553 orphaned sites etc etc (2019 figures)? Who is going to pay for the cleanup of the 100,000 inactive wells in the province. AER estimated it will take $58.65 to remediate all of the unproductive wells in the province.

    And that does not include the land rental payments to farmers that oil companies have walked away from.
    How does any of this address the issue of the chronic losses incurred with wind power?

    Yours is a classic example of the whataboutism argument. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 16, 2021 | 12:24 43 Saskatchewan has huge resources of uranium, let’s just build a base off nuclear then let individuals put up their windmills and solar panels if it works for them or in areas that are not handcuffed by winter climates like most rural Canadians.
    Make EV’s economic in big urban centres where it makes sense to drastically reduce pollution, that’s a good thing . But ensure there is a reliable power source in place before forcing changes .
    Definitely going to be big time growing pains if pushed to fast into this “green new world” Reply With Quote

  • Feb 16, 2021 | 12:29 44 Watched a video on how the power grid works
    It’s absolutely amazing and so many don’t understand it or appreciate it
    How these bird mincer/Chinese panel assholes think they can stuff their excess power into whenever it’s convenient for them and the grid needs to take their little virtue signalling bullshit and pay them for it is beyond me . There is NO STORAGE !!!
    Electricity that is hit and miss is a joke Reply With Quote

  • Feb 16, 2021 | 13:49 45 Solar activity has been dropping since it's peak during Solar Cycle #24 in Feb 2014.

    Predictions have been made that Solar Cycle #25 will be a Grand Solar Minimum, with NOAA's predicted sun spot forecast. NOAA forecasting sun spots won't rise to 2014 levels till,,, the year 2024.

    Get use to the cold, and crop growing problems,,, likely on going for the next 10 years.

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/p...and-radio-flux

    https://21stcenturywire.com/2020/09/...solar-minimum/ Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 16, 2021 | 13:57 46
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    AE: If oil companies are paying all the costs as you claim, why does Alberta have 3127 orphaned wells, 3186 orphaned pipeline segments, 1553 orphaned sites etc etc (2019 figures)? Who is going to pay for the cleanup of the 100,000 inactive wells in the province. AER estimated it will take $58.65 to remediate all of the unproductive wells in the province.

    And that does not include the land rental payments to farmers that oil companies have walked away from.
    This has more to do with poor gov't and lack of responsibility than it does with economics. If you could open a dump and fill that coulee right up and collect all the tippage fees over the years and then just sell it to an offshore shell company and walk away money in pocket, who wouldn't this might shock you but some people out there quite enjoy making money by screwing the system over.

    And yes it is a marketing topic, and it was awfully nice to some of my stocks this morning as well as my unsold CWRS .
    Last edited by mcfarms; Feb 16, 2021 at 14:00.
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    fjlip's Avatar Feb 16, 2021 | 14:16 47
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    Watched a video on how the power grid works
    It’s absolutely amazing and so many don’t understand it or appreciate it
    How these bird mincer/Chinese panel assholes think they can stuff their excess power into whenever it’s convenient for them and the grid needs to take their little virtue signalling bullshit and pay them for it is beyond me . There is NO STORAGE !!!
    Electricity that is hit and miss is a joke
    I wondered that, just can't dump generated amps in unlimited. Reply With Quote

  • fjlip's Avatar Feb 16, 2021 | 14:18 48
    Quote Originally Posted by beaverdam View Post
    Solar activity has been dropping since it's peak during Solar Cycle #24 in Feb 2014.

    Predictions have been made that Solar Cycle #25 will be a Grand Solar Minimum, with NOAA's predicted sun spot forecast. NOAA forecasting sun spots won't rise to 2014 levels till,,, the year 2024.

    Get use to the cold, and crop growing problems,,, likely on going for the next 10 years.

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/p...and-radio-flux

    https://21stcenturywire.com/2020/09/...solar-minimum/
    And every Lieberal/left/Green Energy/Climate Change Scaring Nazi wants it COLDER! Reply With Quote
    Feb 16, 2021 | 16:40 49 maybe someone can explain the winter wheat crop in the southern states. Is there any of it actually growing and above ground at this time of the yr? Thats going to be a lot more damage than some winter kill.

    https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/grains-wheat-at-one-week-high-as-freezing-us-weather-in-focus Reply With Quote
    Feb 16, 2021 | 17:08 50
    Quote Originally Posted by fjlip View Post
    I wondered that, just can't dump generated amps in unlimited.
    https://youtu.be/v1BMWczn7JM Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 16, 2021 | 22:05 51 Reply With Quote
    Feb 16, 2021 | 22:30 52 If you are willing to look at other possible reasons than just the failure of renewables for the power outages in Texas you should read the series of articles that the Washinton Post put out today. Start with https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-grid-failure/. It is eye opening. And it actually admits some wind turbines froze up. But it makes the case that the biggest reason for the failures were the decline of the Texas electrical system and a failure to invest in infrastructure - similar to arguments made by posters here about the Saskatchewan power grid.

    Consider these statements from the article: "But wind accounts for just 10 percent of the power in Texas generated during the winter. And the loss of power to the grid caused by shutdowns of thermal power plants, primarily those relying on natural gas, dwarfed the dent caused by frozen wind turbines, by a factor of five or six."

    "In the single-digit temperatures, pipelines froze up because there was some moisture in the gas. Pumps slowed. Diesel engines to power the pumps refused to start. One power plant after another went offline. Even a reactor at one of the state’s two nuclear plants went dark, hobbled by frozen equipment."

    "In Texas, production of natural gas Tuesday fell 6 billion to 7 billion cubic feet per day from earlier in the month"

    Another view of Texas grid problems:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...-live-updates/

    Texas Tribune article:
    https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02...rbines-frozen/
    Last edited by dmlfarmer; Feb 16, 2021 at 23:23.
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  • Feb 16, 2021 | 22:32 53
    Quote Originally Posted by fjlip View Post
    I wondered that, just can't dump generated amps in unlimited.
    No, but if you pay your neighbors enough, they will take them off your hands. That is how Germany does it, selling excess to Norway, and by selling, that means paying them to take the excess. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 16, 2021 | 22:36 54
    Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
    If you are willing to look at other possible reasons than just the failure of renewables for the power outages in Texas you should read the series of articles that the Washinton Post put out today. Start with https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-grid-failure/. It is eye opening. And it actually admits some wind turbines froze up. But it makes the case that the biggest reason for the failures were the decline of the Texas electrical system and a failure to invest in infrastructure - similar to arguments made by posters here about the Saskatchewan power grid.

    Consider these statements from the article: "But wind accounts for just 10 percent of the power in Texas generated during the winter. And the loss of power to the grid caused by shutdowns of thermal power plants, primarily those relying on natural gas, dwarfed the dent caused by frozen wind turbines, by a factor of five or six."

    "In the single-digit temperatures, pipelines froze up because there was some moisture in the gas. Pumps slowed. Diesel engines to power the pumps refused to start. One power plant after another went offline. Even a reactor at one of the state’s two nuclear plants went dark, hobbled by frozen equipment."

    "In Texas, production of natural gas Tuesday fell 6 billion to 7 billion cubic feet per day from earlier in the month"
    Now just imagine, if instead of wasting billions fighting climate change, we had invested an equal amount in mitigation efforts for actual weather events that actually happen. Making our infrastrucure more reliable and secure. More back up, actually studying climate history and preparing for the extremes of all types which have been known to occur. Reply With Quote

  • Feb 17, 2021 | 08:23 55
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    No, but if you pay your neighbors enough, they will take them off your hands. That is how Germany does it, selling excess to Norway, and by selling, that means paying them to take the excess.
    So having too much electricity is the problem? You have been telling us the opposite, that we wont have enough! Make up your mind.

    Cant you just turn down some gas or other dispatchable sources when there are lots of renewable sources and ramp up the other sources when renewables are low? That's what system operators are designing their systems to do. I am assuming they have this figured out at the AESO in Alberta?

    But don't let that stop you and your friends on Agrisilly blaming renewables every time the power goes out. Even on systems where there are hardly any renewables. LOL Reply With Quote
    Feb 17, 2021 | 08:31 56
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    So having too much electricity is the problem? You have been telling us the opposite, that we wont have enough! Make up your mind.

    Cant you just turn down some gas or other dispatchable sources when there are lots of renewable sources and ramp up the other sources when renewables are low? That's what system operators are designing their systems to do. I am assuming they have this figured out at the AESO in Alberta?

    But don't let that stop you and your friends on Agrisilly blaming renewables every time the power goes out. Even on systems where there are hardly any renewables. LOL
    INstead of making an ass of yourself in public on topics of which you have no knowledge, perhaps you would be better off doing some research first.
    The situation described is exactly what is happening in Germany, amongst others. When the wind blows and the excess has to be dumped. Called load shedding. It is expensive. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 17, 2021 | 08:36 57 But you live in Alberta. Is it a problem in Alberta? Nope

    Do you have such little faith in engineers and system operators that they wont figure this out?

    But I forget you are a negative "the cup is only half full" kind a guy! Reply With Quote
    Feb 17, 2021 | 08:39 58
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    But you live in Alberta. Is it a problem in Alberta? Nope

    Do you have such little faith in engineers and system operators that they wont figure this out?

    But I forget you are a negative "the cup is only half full" kind a guy!
    Do a little extrapolation. Increase the unreliable sources to the levels that our politicians are advocating, and do it in every jurisdiction. Now tell me how will anyone load shed to their neighbors, or how will they buy back the shortfall when everyone else is in the same situation? California hit that brick wall last year, with resulting black outs. Reply With Quote
    Feb 17, 2021 | 08:46 59 By the time this becomes a world wide issue there will be several storage options and lots EVs to charge.

    In the mean time you keep telling us how bad renewables are.

    The decision makers and system operators could care less about what you and I think! LOL Reply With Quote
    Feb 17, 2021 | 08:50 60
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckChuck View Post
    By the time this becomes a world wide issue there will be several storage options and lots EVs to charge.

    In the mean time you keep telling us how bad renewables are.

    The decision makers and system operators could care less about what you and I think! LOL
    Well, at least you got something right. The bureaucrats don't seem to care what their consumers think, or how much it costs them, or how many lives or livelihoods it costs. Are you aware of what is happening in the southern US right now? Reply With Quote