Test March Canola calls Test

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March Canola calls

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Feb 11, 2021 | 22:01 1 This could get interesting. Or not
13,354 call options to settle yet with nearly all of them in the money. 7 days till expiry.... Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 11, 2021 | 22:25 2 What is a normal amount for call options? Reply With Quote
    Feb 11, 2021 | 22:43 3
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    What is a normal amount for call options?
    85% expire worthless, historically. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 11, 2021 | 22:47 4 Any ideas out there for put options for the 2021 crop? Reply With Quote
    Feb 11, 2021 | 22:50 5 All luck, the first time bought a call was at delivery during harvest last fall. Settled it yesterday up $3.40 per bushel. Guess I owe my rep a steak supper, it was at his suggestion after I was commiserating the spread between where I sold and what was the current price. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 11, 2021 | 23:06 6
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    Any ideas out there for put options for the 2021 crop?
    Actively trading January $550 puts today @ $20/MT today.

    Offers $530/MT floor and with 0 par basis now heard under Jan, this put option may guard a $12/bu floor price with no production or delivery obligation. Expires around Xmas. Also, put option ownership only allows open cash market ceiling (wide-open) should futures rally on summer weather issues. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 11, 2021 | 23:15 7
    Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
    What is a normal amount for call options?
    I am not sure about what would be normal.
    But open interest is dropping fast now. If these options are in the money(it depends what was paid for them) but obviously a lot are; it could be a whole new game. Especially if some of the new longs decide to take delivery.
    It could all settle out without a hiccup as long as the writers are long the underlying Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 12, 2021 | 00:05 8

    There's a Gann 4x sell signal setting up Sunday night ... not sure if the holiday interferes. Also noteworthy, my AI system skipped May, July. It's focused on Nov now, usually it rolls to July, not completely sure why but it didn't like anything in between.
    Last edited by macdon02; Feb 12, 2021 at 00:15.
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    Feb 12, 2021 | 00:18 9

    Vertical lines are timing, horizontal are resistance and support. Time over price gents. Stick with your normal sell dates unless price exceeds resistance on those dates.(In a bullish market)
    Last edited by macdon02; Feb 12, 2021 at 00:31.
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    Feb 12, 2021 | 06:24 10
    Quote Originally Posted by macdon02 View Post
    There's a Gann 4x sell signal setting up Sunday night ... not sure if the holiday interferes. Also noteworthy, my AI system skipped May, July. It's focused on Nov now, usually it rolls to July, not completely sure why but it didn't like anything in between.
    November has the most OI now? Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 12, 2021 | 10:56 11 Does anyone care to elaborate on how this could play out? If they all decide to excercise their options, they would have to take delivery, is that correct? And why would they not, when they are almost certainly in the money? What other option do they have?
    That is nearly $20 million dollars in contracts at todays price at 20 tonnes per contract, that would be a market mover.
    Or do I have this all backwards? Reply With Quote
    Feb 12, 2021 | 11:35 12
    Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
    Does anyone care to elaborate on how this could play out? If they all decide to excercise their options, they would have to take delivery, is that correct? And why would they not, when they are almost certainly in the money? What other option do they have?
    That is nearly $20 million dollars in contracts at todays price at 20 tonnes per contract, that would be a market mover.
    Or do I have this all backwards?
    Options expire on Feb 19. By that date options buyers that are in the money have to decide whether to offset their position, that is sell their option, or exercise their option where they go long or short the underlying contract(The other outcome is that their option is out of the money and worthless). If they exercise it does not necessarily mean that they would stand for delivery for the last trading day is March 12. They have till then to offset the futures contract they acquire. However the period between the first notice day, Feb 26 and the last trading day, March 12 can be quite interesting.
    The Jan 21 contract went up $50 a tonne in the last 2 weeks Reply With Quote

  • Feb 12, 2021 | 11:42 13 The other interesting thing to watch is whether or not the futures price converges as the final trading day draws nearer. The idea is that by the time the last contract is offset, the futures price should equal the street price or perhaps more accurately, what would have to be paid to trade some actual canola on that day within the contract's specified delivery zone.
    Any major difference would be a discrepancy and opportunity to profit from arbitrage Reply With Quote
    Feb 12, 2021 | 12:15 14 First thing first, need a weekly close, preferably on close Monday, assuming we still trade even though holiday in US, over 725, i show no resistance till 775, 787 and finally 810. These numbers are derived from the low points similar to fibonacci but include an adjustment factor, last i looked, presently 719 Reply With Quote
    Feb 12, 2021 | 12:19 15 101, you are too sharp for me. Short term positive or negative for prices? Reply With Quote
    Feb 12, 2021 | 13:35 16 This is for the most part playing out in the nearby month. It is not really making for higher cash prices on immediate new sales.
    For cash canola off the farm the action is in the future summer months. Prices have gone from offering a premium for immediate deliver to a discount of as much as a dollar a bushel at some crush plant points. Reply With Quote
    Feb 12, 2021 | 16:11 17
    Quote Originally Posted by macdon02 View Post
    First thing first, need a weekly close, preferably on close Monday, assuming we still trade even though holiday in US, over 725, i show no resistance till 775, 787 and finally 810. These numbers are derived from the low points similar to fibonacci but include an adjustment factor, last i looked, presently 719
    ICE canola closed Monday Feb 15 Reply With Quote
    Feb 12, 2021 | 16:24 18 Around Jan 12 the crush margin for the March took a nose dive. It did recover some but has dropped again big time today. Cash prices for Jan/Feb/Mar have not kept up. Basis is as much as 59 under Mar for Feb delivery

    Name:  Marcrushfutures.jpg
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    Feb 17, 2021 | 10:58 19 All time high for the March continuous tied at 10:30 this morning 744.50 (March 3, 2008) Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 17, 2021 | 12:12 20 New record made 746.50 @ 11:28
    All time high 749.50 @ 12:00 Reply With Quote

  • Feb 18, 2021 | 07:23 21
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    New record made 746.50 @ 11:28
    All time high 749.50 @ 12:00
    Time to sell some more I think. Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 18, 2021 | 07:56 22 I don't see how a guy could lose.

    May, July, November and January continuous contracts have not made new record highs.

    As noted the March contract has some work to do to get all the contracts offset. I will enjoy seeing how this all plays out... Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 08:02 23 I don't umderstand options at this stage.
    Keep us up please. Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 08:03 24 I banking on the March closing to boost May futures and the inverse continuing. Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 08:49 25 It likely will but not to the extent one might think.
    May volumes have been lower than many of the past years.
    Much of the commercial trade is looking further out than May.
    Total volumes might be indicating there is less business to conduct going forward too.
    The market will be thinner, and likely more volatile.
    As of Feb 9 the spec trade was net long 43967 contracts. Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 09:47 26 Modern day high in any month of 769.90 tied this morning in the March contract Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 09:49 27 new high!!!!!! Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 18, 2021 | 13:04 28
    Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
    new high!!!!!!
    The Trend
    Is your Friend
    Till in the End
    It will Bend!

    From RFD TV! Reply With Quote
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  • Feb 18, 2021 | 13:43 29 Question for 101 , others ?
    Have a little nexera with June /July basis attached over July
    Forgive me , I am really bad at this
    Right now July futures about $.75 /bu less than may
    If a fellow waits , do you think the inversion will decrease ? Reply With Quote
    Feb 18, 2021 | 16:21 30
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    Question for 101 , others ?
    Have a little nexera with June /July basis attached over July
    Forgive me , I am really bad at this
    Right now July futures about $.75 /bu less than may
    If a fellow waits , do you think the inversion will decrease ?
    Check your contract for deadlines to price out.

    You want to picture what a decrease in the value spread between May and July might look like.

    Also, realize the spread/inverse could be maintained but price for both could go up or down in lock step.
    If it goes down then of course your returns at the time you fix the futures component will be lower.

    At the price we have now, as I said above, I don't think a guy can make a bad decision.

    Your question indicated that you were hoping July futures may rise to meet May values. I don't know. However, I am thinking we may see maximum volatility in the March with less volatility for May and less again for July. July could still appreciate in value meaning higher returns for your contract but I think the May is more likely going to fade to meet July. There could be fireworks in the July but I think it will be past the deadline to price out.
    So, focus on the July not this crazy inverse. Also, new crop will be growing by then. crop conditions might have something to say about price direction by then.
    Just my thoughts, I could be wrong, you know best for your farm. Reply With Quote
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