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The Death of Inflation

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Mar 27, 2021 | 08:05 151
Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
Could someone please pinpoint a time in history when an economy was working perfectly?
Wouldn't that require a definition of "working perfectly"?

And take into consideration regionality?

In my humble view, I would offer that the best overall time that any nation at any time has ever known was within our lifetime.

Has there been - ever - another society in the history of this earth that has had more conveniences, more improvement over the preceding generation, more luxury, better food and better opportunity than what our generation grew up with?

Not stating a fact here, just asking. For myself. :-)

What are the parameters of measurement?

Edit: I would add that the less government interferes with an economy, the better things run.

What do we see today, in that regard?
Last edited by burnt; Mar 27, 2021 at 08:07.
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  • biglentil's Avatar Apr 8, 2021 | 06:03 152 Errol since inflation died when will Lumber come back to earth?
    Would love the deflationary boogeyman to show up so I can afford to do a project with my funny money. Reply With Quote
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  • jazz's Avatar Apr 13, 2021 | 08:50 153 Errol, I think its time to revisit this. The last few months have told the story of whats coming.

    Trillions printed up and more to come under Biden. More money has been printed up in the last yr than in all the yrs prior combined. Fed reserve has stopped reporting M2 because its so massive and growing exponentially every day.

    And this time, unlike the 70s, the money has a 3 fold effect. First trying to engineer a great reset for the climate hoax, secondly people getting direct payments and buying scarce goods and services that havent rebounded from covid or even buying stocks and lastly with fiat money crashing in value, there is an entire group of retail and institutional speculators trying to park it in real assets to preserve wealth. Homes, cars, equipment, collectables, commodities, value stocks.

    And at the same time the fed has to hold the 10yr at low levels so they are buying bonds and MBS on the other end.

    This has to be the most risky and dangerous economic experiment since Weimar. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Apr 13, 2021 | 09:12 154
    Quote Originally Posted by jazz View Post
    Errol, I think its time to revisit this. The last few months have told the story of whats coming.

    Trillions printed up and more to come under Biden. More money has been printed up in the last yr than in all the yrs prior combined. Fed reserve has stopped reporting M2 because its so massive and growing exponentially every day.

    And this time, unlike the 70s, the money has a 3 fold effect. First trying to engineer a great reset for the climate hoax, secondly people getting direct payments and buying scarce goods and services that havent rebounded from covid or even buying stocks and lastly with fiat money crashing in value, there is an entire group of retail and institutional speculators trying to park it in real assets to preserve wealth. Homes, cars, equipment, collectables, commodities, value stocks.

    And at the same time the fed has to hold the 10yr at low levels so they are buying bonds and MBS on the other end.

    This has to be the most risky and dangerous economic experiment since Weimar.
    Weimer 1922 six months prior to hyperinflation, we have all 5 of the same markers present in our current economic environment necessary for hyperinflation. Off the top of my head the five markers are rapidly expanding monetary supply, high levels of debt, markets based on speculation not investment for productivity, corruption (crony capitalism check), and growing centralization of control. Many millionaires made in 1922 many became trillionaires 1923. So wealthy infact some would heat their homes with wheelbarrows full of money.
    Last edited by biglentil; Apr 13, 2021 at 09:34.
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    Apr 13, 2021 | 12:51 155 Money printing doesn’t lead to hyperinflation. Case in-point: Japan. Japan has no inflation and a lost generation of wealth.

    Fed Chair Powell's 60 Minutes segment on Sunday just shows how fearful central bankers are of incoming deflationary risks (IMO). They can't say the word. Powell suggested that U.S. inflation is very tenuous . . . that 2%, if touched may not hold long. That is an understatement in my view.

    We are just one stock market correction away from a major devaluation of assets that have been artificially supported by money printing. There is simply no substance or long-term footing for inflation given the magnitude of government and personal debt loads.

    The only way out of this is; "the piper eventually gets paid" . . . and that translates into pennies on the dollar. Reply With Quote
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  • GDR
    Apr 13, 2021 | 13:07 156 Biglentil I too have a project that has been put on the backburner. I'm looking about 40% higher build cost this spring compared to last summer when I was making plans. Piss on it I'll wait! Countless people I have talked to are in the same boat. The pendulum always swings too far to the detriment of the market then bounces back the other way. Reply With Quote
    Apr 13, 2021 | 13:22 157 me too , **** those *** mills
    pricks are wrecking highways with their 84mt loads cause they can't get by hauling 64mt like everyone else
    and then gouging the shit out of us on OSB, lumber, plywood , etc.
    **** those greedy bastards , they will get their day
    like $50+ for a sheet of OSB,$100 for plywood
    hope they starve
    thought trudeau said price gouging would not be tolerated during Covid?????????
    Last edited by caseih; Apr 13, 2021 at 13:25.
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    biglentil's Avatar Apr 13, 2021 | 13:23 158 It can definitely take the wind out of one's sails with prices like these. Have a homebuilder friend concerned about the spec homes he is starting. Name:  Screenshot_20210413-131146_Snapchat.jpg
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    Apr 13, 2021 | 21:42 159
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Money printing doesn’t lead to hyperinflation. Case in-point: Japan. Japan has no inflation and a lost generation of wealth.

    Fed Chair Powell's 60 Minutes segment on Sunday just shows how fearful central bankers are of incoming deflationary risks (IMO). They can't say the word. Powell suggested that U.S. inflation is very tenuous . . . that 2%, if touched may not hold long. That is an understatement in my view.

    We are just one stock market correction away from a major devaluation of assets that have been artificially supported by money printing. There is simply no substance or long-term footing for inflation given the magnitude of government and personal debt loads.

    The only way out of this is; "the piper eventually gets paid" . . . and that translates into pennies on the dollar.
    Errol, if deflation does indeed happen there will be a feeding frenzy, concentration of wealth to the max.
    Japan has been in stagflation for a long time not deflation. Reply With Quote
    Apr 13, 2021 | 22:19 160 Margin debt is skyhigh, now estimated in-the-trillions. This is going to be one hell of a margin call when it blows. Powell dismissed and appeared unaware the magnitude of margin on 60 Minutes.

    1999 ... 2008 ... now 2021 Reply With Quote
    Apr 13, 2021 | 22:34 161 Do we really think prices are going to come down? Think prices like these are sustainable in this business?
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    biglentil's Avatar Apr 13, 2021 | 23:21 162 Mpca !
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    Apr 17, 2021 | 20:54 163 The incoming deflationary shock and credit market defaults will catch the investor herd totally unsuspecting (IMO).

    Even plywood prices are susceptible to-a-markdown. Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Apr 17, 2021 | 22:39 164
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    The incoming deflationary shock and credit market defaults will catch the investor herd totally unsuspecting (IMO).

    Even plywood prices are susceptible to-a-markdown.
    You've been saying deflation is coming since plywood was $26 a sheet and calling for golds sell off since $900. I've been hearing about deflation risks for 20years and I've been calling bullshit for that long. It's just jawboning by the fed all the while they continue to print and steal the purchasing power of the savers. Increasing money supply is INFLATION, price inflation is the result. That is the definition as per the Merriam Webster Dictionary from early 1900's to the 1970's until the Keynesians forced them to change it to align with a cooked CPI model to significantly understate real world price inflation. Do you honestly believe the economy is struggling to maintain a 2% price inflation rate currently?
    Last edited by biglentil; Apr 17, 2021 at 22:42.
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    biglentil's Avatar May 1, 2021 | 09:09 165 You can’t make this shit up. Comic book produced by the NY Fed outlines exactly what’s going on today.

    https://twitter.com/HayekAndKeynes/s...431255555?s=19 Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar May 1, 2021 | 09:12 166 You can’t make this shit up. Comic book produced by the NY Fed outlines exactly what’s going on today.

    Name:  Screenshot_20210501-090955_Twitter.jpg
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    May 1, 2021 | 10:01 167 Cycles repeat. The thing is, there were probably the same predictors over and over again all through the years. Who hasn’t heard the old folks warning the next generation about prices rising, too much borrowing? All I am saying is I’ve heard this song and dance repeatedly. When we were buying land in 1972 at $100/acre, our father was saying, “You’ll never pay for that, the price is way too high”. The borrowers were the winners (except when interest rates went to 22%). Could that happen again? That would put the brakes on, wouldn’t it? Reply With Quote
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  • May 2, 2021 | 00:35 168 I’ve basically been calling for a collapse of the dollar for nearly 20 years and yes it may seem to some like I’m the boy that cried wolf but I would say thing look more than ever like I will be right in the near future.

    Interest Rates can never increase significantly again without bringing a complete collapse of the system. The amount of debt in the world compared to 1980 is literally astronomical.

    This is not a matter of if but when. In the interim they feel like the way out is taxation (carbon tax), currency devaluation and quasi inflation. That’s the same old game plan. The inflation (read devaluation) of your currency is estimated to be around 15% per year right now. If you are not making 15% on your money you are losing your wealth.

    The only asset in the world that has outperformed the money printing in last 12 years is bitcoin. Other commodities and assets like real estate have faired well too but really treaded water compared to the Feds balance sheet expansion. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar May 4, 2021 | 07:32 169 Pictures going up!

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  • May 7, 2021 | 08:38 170 Who's going to pay for this recent bout of inflation?

    Never-ending credit market expansion? Print more money till the cows come home? That appears to be the central bank game plan. But if it's real inflation, don't interest rates have to rise to cool? But, a rise in rates could trigger an overly leveraged, margined market to rethink high prices. Even the Fed itself is now warning of heightened risk of asset devaluation . . . I call that incoming deflation.

    The current price rise (ie: gouging) may be seen as an inflationary huge head-fake, if credit markets fail. And how much leverage is there in credit markets? INSANE LEVERAGE. Inflation can quickly become a distant memory if leverage is remotely impacted.

    Is this real or a bubble? Today's U.S. jobs numbers were a major miss . . . treasury yields quickly dropped. Gold is breaking out of its downtrend this week, believing inflation is real. Inflation is talk of the town. To me, price gouging is real, until it can't be done anymore. Right now, commodity strength is now largely driven by computer algorithms (fund buying).

    And when was the last time a commodity bull market held?

    When economic fundamentals have no meaning and being disregarded by investors taking on massive risk fueled by insane greed, economic reality will be the check and eventually have the final say.
    And it may be a shock to investors fueled by added risk and greed (IMO). Reply With Quote
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