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The Death of Inflation

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Mar 11, 2021 | 06:34 91 It would depend how much money for nothing people are given. If it is just enough to keep them alive and provide the basics it is not inflationary.
It also depends whether or not the availability of goods and services remains abundant. If a portion of the workforce is productive enough to supply everything the whole population requires inflation should not be a big deal.
Government policy is to regulate inflation, not get rid of it Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 11, 2021 | 06:53 92 So, if the Canadian Economy needs to “grow” and interest rates are going to stay down because of that fact, then why would Trudeau keep raising Carbon taxes and defeat that rationale. Instead he should be reducing consumption taxes to grow the economy. Low interest rates do nothing but create housing bubbles - dangerous policy to go unchecked as seen in 2008 US. Too low-too long. Reply With Quote
    Mar 11, 2021 | 06:55 93 This has the double wham effect.
    Money for nothing reduces productivity, we’re seeing it already with the shortages of product thus creating inflation.
    Now the people have a more difficult time making ends meet, government answers with more handouts perpetuating the problem. Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 11, 2021 | 06:59 94
    Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
    So, if the Canadian Economy needs to “grow” and interest rates are going to stay down because of that fact, then why would Trudeau keep raising Carbon taxes and defeat that rationale. Instead he should be reducing consumption taxes to grow the economy. Low interest rates do nothing but create housing bubbles - dangerous policy to go unchecked as seen in 2008 US. Too low-too long.
    People need to work, Trudeau doesn’t know the meaning of the word, he thinks we should all sit around the fire singing kumbaya. Reply With Quote
    Mar 11, 2021 | 07:13 95 Container yard east of Regina is packed to the nines with full containers sitting. What’s going on? Don’t see any trains being filled, none on the tracks either. Maybe those of you moving around see some rail movement. Are railcars moving down those tracks. Something seems off. Reply With Quote
    Mar 11, 2021 | 10:12 96 The processor who takes our IP soys is having one heck of a time getting empty cans for shipping them overseas. Consistently dealing with getting a very small percentage cans ordered and promised.

    Asia is paying shipping companies to return them empty for a faster turn-around. Reply With Quote
    helmsdale's Avatar Mar 11, 2021 | 12:16 97 Used 8'x 40' can was $5500 last month.

    $7500 a couple days ago... if you can find one.

    Another one today... not necessarily apple's to apple's, but going rate on a 30ish hp Kohler auger motor was ~$3000 around christmas time. First place phoned yesterday said they've gone up alot, and new price is $4200.

    Neighbor said a bundle of posts was ~$650 last year. $950 the other day.
    Last edited by helmsdale; Mar 11, 2021 at 13:05.
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    Mar 11, 2021 | 12:44 98
    Quote Originally Posted by jwab View Post
    This has the double wham effect.
    Money for nothing reduces productivity, we’re seeing it already with the shortages of product thus creating inflation.
    Now the people have a more difficult time making ends meet, government answers with more handouts perpetuating the problem.
    This has been tried in Canada for decades ... and has done exactly as you pointed out . Reply With Quote
    Mar 11, 2021 | 23:02 99 Every American can sit on-the-couch this weekend and have their bank balance jacked-up automatically.

    Is this inflation risk?. . . lack of productivity risk? . . . or both? . . . or is this crash risk? Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Mar 12, 2021 | 00:13 100
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Every American can sit on-the-couch this weekend and have their bank balance jacked-up automatically.

    Is this inflation risk?. . . lack of productivity risk? . . . or both? . . . or is this crash risk?
    1 and 2 yes but crash risk unlikely, not until they cut off the free money to the addicts. Plenty of it will find its way into Robinhood and crypto exchanges. Used cars under $3000 might get hard to find along with Xbox's. Saving in dollars is a sucker bet only for those willing to watch the purchasing power of their hard earned money get eroded by inflation. The ones that get money for nothin know better.
    Last edited by biglentil; Mar 12, 2021 at 00:25.
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    Mar 13, 2021 | 08:38 101
    Quote Originally Posted by biglentil View Post
    1 and 2 yes but crash risk unlikely, not until they cut off the free money to the addicts. Plenty of it will find its way into Robinhood and crypto exchanges. Used cars under $3000 might get hard to find along with Xbox's. Saving in dollars is a sucker bet only for those willing to watch the purchasing power of their hard earned money get eroded by inflation. The ones that get money for nothin know better.
    That about hits the nail on the head.
    People who sit on the sidelines with cash savings during times of high inflation will watch their wealth evaporate. The rush to be fully invested is everywhere. Stimulus money and savings all going into consumer goods, equities, real estate, land. Prices for everything going higher and higher.
    Where does the safe money go?
    The economy already is already overstimulated.
    And the US has just cracked the lid on another $1.9 trillion stimulus package.
    Lock in your rates. This could get interesting Reply With Quote
    Mar 13, 2021 | 09:21 102 "Where does the safe money go?"

    The real money like the backroom boys that are advising the great reset?
    Where is the low risk spot to protect acumulated lifetime earnings from bad fiscal management by governments. Reply With Quote
    Mar 13, 2021 | 10:49 103
    Quote Originally Posted by shtferbrains View Post
    "Where does the safe money go?"

    The real money like the backroom boys that are advising the great reset?
    Where is the low risk spot to protect acumulated lifetime earnings from bad fiscal management by governments.
    Realize my opinion is not a popular one . . . but any inflationary push will be short-lived (IMO). The U.S. bond market is already hinting at this.

    The central bank/Fed money printing show is now extremely long-in-the-tooth. To me, this faked prosperity is now in its final stage . . . like the ‘final burst’ of a fireworks show, . . . then welcome potential ‘rapid asset deflation’ or the death-of-inflation. Reply With Quote
    Mar 13, 2021 | 12:38 104 Please elaborate on the US Bond market, and the effect of higher rates. Reply With Quote
    biglentil's Avatar Mar 13, 2021 | 14:04 105
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Realize my opinion is not a popular one . . . but any inflationary push will be short-lived (IMO). The U.S. bond market is already hinting at this.

    The central bank/Fed money printing show is now extremely long-in-the-tooth. To me, this faked prosperity is now in its final stage . . . like the ‘final burst’ of a fireworks show, . . . then welcome potential ‘rapid asset deflation’ or the death-of-inflation.
    That thesis is based on the thinking that the fed is somehow going to change its course after at least 50 years of loose monetary policy. The printing presses do not appear to be slowing down just the opposite. They expanded the money supply by 30% in the last 12 months and just announced another $1.9t. If there were a death of inflation like you say wouldn't that mean they could go on another printing show?
    Last edited by biglentil; Mar 14, 2021 at 07:53.
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    Mar 13, 2021 | 14:39 106 Historically yes, if investors lose confidence in the stock markets or fear higher interest rates, then they move into bonds driving higher yields.

    Now with all the QE, or extra cash stimulus, the stock markets are going higher because that’s historically the best rate of return. Now as a hedge, or just another - next best (safe??) place to invest, investors are now buying bonds as well. Both can go up at the same time, why not?

    Govt is promoting the idea that the economy is booming, unemployment is down. This begs the question “compared to what or when?” Last month isnt fair, hows about last year or two years ago?

    If interest rates go up, or is supported by Govt, they won’t get re elected and as well, massive recession and bankruptcy killing the economy and consumer.

    China is squeezing the market, forcing consumers to buy China everything. This is through control of container freight and sneaky/ quiet inflation in North America that everyone is underestimated. No one wants to work, paid to stay at home with stimulus, higher my minimum wages, higher wages at Wallmarts, Targets, McDonald’s etc. Higher fuel, food prices, housing, etc Reply With Quote
    Mar 13, 2021 | 16:30 107
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Realize my opinion is not a popular one . . . but any inflationary push will be short-lived (IMO). The U.S. bond market is already hinting at this.

    The central bank/Fed money printing show is now extremely long-in-the-tooth. To me, this faked prosperity is now in its final stage . . . like the ‘final burst’ of a fireworks show, . . . then welcome potential ‘rapid asset deflation’ or the death-of-inflation.
    The whole financial system is based on inflation, things might correct but the only way things go backwards is to implement a new system, “great reset” but then it’s likely the whole thing repeats. Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2021 | 07:33 108 Released this morning. This is inflation? . . . .

    Annual inflation quickened to 1.1 per cent last month from 1 per cent in January, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday. Economists were predicting a 1.3 per cent pickup in inflation, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.5 per cent versus economist forecasts for 0.7 per cent. Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2021 | 07:39 109 Yet most things ag related have jumped 20% or more in just the past few months Reply With Quote
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    LEP

  • ajl
    Mar 17, 2021 | 07:54 110
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Yet most things ag related have jumped 20% or more in just the past few months
    Ag inputs are really the only place where one sees any inflation. Farmers expect inflation and are rewarded with it. With all the money printing, I am pleasantly surprise that people still accept the canuckistanian loon, which is great while prepping for the coming collapse. Told my wife to stock up on canola productions and we have when we can still find stuff on sale. Biggest worry is higher input prices meeting lower output prices especially canola on the tail end of this inflationary mini boom. Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2021 | 08:03 111
    Quote Originally Posted by ajl View Post
    Ag inputs are really the only place where one sees any inflation. Farmers expect inflation and are rewarded with it. With all the money printing, I am pleasantly surprise that people still accept the canuckistanian loon, which is great while prepping for the coming collapse. Told my wife to stock up on canola productions and we have when we can still find stuff on sale. Biggest worry is higher input prices meeting lower output prices especially canola on the tail end of this inflationary mini boom.
    That’s exactly what I am concerned about , or if we have a drought and or frost reduced crop for next years inputs .
    Could be nasty set up Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2021 | 08:23 112 Does anyone have the basket of items we actually use in Canada to measure inflation currently? There's been a ton of manipulation, i know that pulled food prices and home ownership in exchange for rent, in the US. Think it would be helpful to know exactly what is being measured. $52 or $56 OSB sheets($1000 lumber a 4x move in 12 months), $18 canola, are excluded. Last time i looked at the actual list it was rigged to not show any inflation. Reply With Quote
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  • Mar 17, 2021 | 08:32 113
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Yet most things ag related have jumped 20% or more in just the past few months
    and lots are up 50%
    bet all the big seed co's are kicking themselves in the ass for reselling canola seed lol Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2021 | 08:38 114 4x8 sheet of 3/8 osb board is $45.

    If you can find it anywhere. Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2021 | 08:42 115

    Cup and handle formation, very bullish. 10 yr is up 1% since start of 2021. Wife says rates at the bank are starting to creep up for the average person. Id keep 1 eye on this. Don't rely on what you hear. Higher yield = more inflation Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2021 | 08:44 116
    Quote Originally Posted by burnt View Post
    4x8 sheet of 3/8 osb board is $45.

    If you can find it anywhere.
    I stand corrected, just what i was told, im not building. But was thinking a b train should have an armed escort. Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2021 | 09:22 117 Maybe in a world where one does not have to purchase current inputs , inflation is not a worry . But it sure as heck is in Ag and construction right now . Reply With Quote
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  • biglentil's Avatar Mar 17, 2021 | 09:57 118
    Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
    Released this morning. This is inflation? . . . .

    Annual inflation quickened to 1.1 per cent last month from 1 per cent in January, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday. Economists were predicting a 1.3 per cent pickup in inflation, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.5 per cent versus economist forecasts for 0.7 per cent.

    Does anyone actually believe that? The way yields are rising the market definitely does not buy it. Reply With Quote
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  • jazz's Avatar Mar 17, 2021 | 10:06 119 Lets remember the people who have caused this financial crisis and the others in the past are telling us they can now stickhandle us out unscathed.

    That right there should scare everyone.

    I would be taking a contrarian bet on this one for sure.

    Only deflation I see is in fiat and basic consumer tech, unless that tech is shoved into a vehicle dashboard. Reply With Quote
    Mar 17, 2021 | 11:08 120 Right from the horse's mouth . . . . The Bank of Canada stated they expect inflation to remain in-check as continued excess capacity puts downward pressure on prices. (If I’m not mistaken . . . this is called ‘deflation’). Reply With Quote